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Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

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Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>not sure how you got that conclusion. The OP drew a direct comparison from what Tesla spent on a plant, to what Toyota is spending on a factory. How can you draw a different conclusion? What makes Tesla "right" and Toyota "wrong"? > They are saying for a car company they are (1) way behind and (2) any investments they are making won't reach fruition for years, nor likely make a dent in the industry. Way behind what?…

Nope, the Model Y was the best selling vehicle in 2023, regardless of powertrain. https://insideevs.com/news/706169/tesla-model-y-best-selling...

car, not vehicle. The best selling vehicle in the US in 2023 by a long shot is the Ford F-series truck.

Car and Driver also says the Rav4 outside the Model Y, fwiw.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't the Model Y outsell the RAV4 in 2023? I guess there are estimates that go both ways on that, but nobody really disputes that the RAV4 and Model Y are neck-and-neck. Would be nice if Tesla released actual numbers.

Doesn't look like it. 4. Toyota RAV4 (434,943 units sold) 5. Tesla Model Y (385,900 units sold, estimated) https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars... This source says the Model Y sold 403,897 (still behind the RAV4) https://www.visualcapitalist.com/best-selling-vehicles-in-am... This source says Model Y sales were 394,497: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/06/top-10-best-selling-cars-in-...

And this source says Model Y was #2 and RAV4 #3.

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/07/tesla-model-y-is-2-us-best...

My point stands, Model Y sales are matching RAV4 sales, for all practical purposes. And it happened in the space of a couple years. Toyota sells a lot of cars, but they're not the undisputed king of the hill.

Also, not all RAV4s are hybrids. Model Y definitely outsold RAV4 hybrids. Though hybrids aren't any kind of EV (unless they are plug-in), so that's moot.

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For context: Tesla is guiding for $10+B a year capex spending for the next 3 years. I know people around these parts think that Tesla has uncovered some magical factory building ability, but can you even consider the fact that maybe Toyota knows what they are doing? > Toyota is still under-investing in EV. $1.3B is nothing. This is one factory.

What about Toyota's plans makes you think they will ever catch up to everyone else with EVs?

Easy to catch up when EV market is shrinking. Toyota is right, gas hybrids are the future. Awesome range, you don't have to own a home to charge one, no problems in cold weather.

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#114
lol #41. Kentucky [0] Percentage of registered vehicles that are electric: 0.06% Total registered electric vehicles: 2,650 (#33 overall) Number of statewide charging stations: 222 (#37 overall) Number of charging ports per 100 EVs: 19.9 (#21 overall)

[0]https://www _ copilotsearch _ com/posts/states-with-the-most-electric-vehicles/

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#115
post #17

On the bright side, some manufacturing jobs brought state side. On the other hand, it’s in KY. These multibillion dollar deals tend to land in states with the lowest cost of living, non-educated workforce, minimal enforcement/respect of environment (dump waste into rivers), and tend to be subsidized at the state and local levels. Apple opened up shop outside of Austin (ie, not Travis County) because of lower taxes an…

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Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#116

lol #41. Kentucky [0] Percentage of registered vehicles that are electric: 0.06% Total registered electric vehicles: 2,650 (#33 overall) Number of statewide charging stations: 222 (#37 overall) Number of charging ports per 100 EVs: 19.9 (#21 overall) [0] https://www _ copilotsearch _ com/posts/states-with-the-most-electric-vehicles/

#44 in income. That's the real reason to put a factory there. And it's a good reason why EV adoption would be low there as well.

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#117
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, some PHEVs with relatively small batteries can qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit. You might be on to something there. It would certainly explain the size of the investment. A $1.3B plant might not build a lot of EVs, but it could build quite a few PHEVs.

Specifically it's 7kWh minimum in addition to all of the other sourcing and assembly requirements. In practice there haven't been any PHEVs with less, the smallest PHEV battery so far in the US is 8kWh in a Ferrari. It'll be interesting to see if more small battery PHEVs come out trying to target HEV price points with the tax credit. It would still be a huge jump up from standard hybrids which as far as I'm aware are…

Yeah, and the 7kwh should cost ~$1k. So if the manufacturer wants to maximize the number of $7,500 rebates, PHEV is the way to go. 11 PHEVs == one 300 mile compact crossover.

They don't even have to be good PHEVs. I agree that there should have been a range requirement.

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#118

lol #41. Kentucky [0] Percentage of registered vehicles that are electric: 0.06% Total registered electric vehicles: 2,650 (#33 overall) Number of statewide charging stations: 222 (#37 overall) Number of charging ports per 100 EVs: 19.9 (#21 overall) [0] https://www _ copilotsearch _ com/posts/states-with-the-most-electric-vehicles/

TMMK (Toyota Motor Manufacturing Kentucky) has an $8B plant in Kentucky, the largest Toyota manufacturing facility in the world. This plant is where all Camry models are manufactured, which is the best-selling car in the United States. Additionally, all Rav4 Hybrid models are manufactured there, including all the motors (not just assembly).

Seems like a smart place to build your own batteries to me.

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#119
post #7

$1.3B seems like a lot of money but it isn't for a car factory, especially spread over many years. For context: Tesla is guiding for $10+B a year capex spending for the next 3 years. Nevada factory took $6.2B and Tesla plans to spend additional $3.6B Toyota is still under-investing in EV. $1.3B is nothing. https://www.tesla.com/blog/continuing-our-investment-nevada

In addition to that, I wouldn't be surprised if they got 100 percent of that amount from the government in one way or another

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#120

How much does Toyota pay in taxes in Kentucky or are we subsidizing the factory?

I don't think there is such thing as manufacturing investment without subsidization any more. And it most often results in the Winner's Curse: the entity providing the greatest subsidies win's the "investment", but they give up so much in the process that the economic benefits are wiped out. See: Tesla in Buffalo, VW in Ontario, FoxConn in Wisconsin.

Foxconn in Wisconsin is the one people love to mention.

AFAIK - they got $3B in FUTURE benefits - of which none came to fruition.

Foxconn delivered nothing and also got almost nothing (~1% of that $3B).

Yeah - it was a dumb political stunt - and it unfortunately worked for the time. But it wasn't the massive financial disaster people think it was.

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