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Self-driving as a case study for AGI

karpathy.github.io

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Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#111

Post by marvin »

fodkodrasz wrote: post #76
hiAndrewQuinn wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming AGI doesn't kill us all, I would imagine the argument for UBI will become much easier to defend once it causes 100x, 1000x, 10000x etc growth in the economy. Our job is mostly to hang on until one of those two outcomes occurs.

The thing is that economy does not make sense without people. Economy is a way to allocate human work and resources, and provide incentives for humans to collaborate, factoring in the available resource limits. Now if AGI make people's work redundant, and makes economy grow 100-10000x times... what does that measure mean at all? Can produce lots of stuff not needed or affordable by anybody? So we just hand out welfar…

This isn’t complicated. Economic growth means cheaper access to things people want.

Imagine a list of things many people wish to happen in physical reality. We’ll have more of that.

-Better healthcare

-Curing most things that destroy quality of life

-Curing aging and age-related death

-Much better treatment for all sources of mental suffering

-Far better and cheaper and reversible body modification

-More free time to spend at whatever you want

-Everything much cheaper

-Bigger and better homes and living spaces

-Bigger, faster, cheaper transport

-Easier to organize meaningful social interaction

-Better and more immersive entertainment

-More time to spend with close friends and loved ones

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#112

Post by gitfan86 »

steveBK123 wrote: post #101

Seeing the guy who couldn't deliver FSD decide to make analogies from FSD to AGI does actually give me confidence we are decades away. Yes, yes, I know there's like 1-2 companies that have highly modified vehicles that are pretty good, in a limited geofenced area, in good weather, at low speed, driving conservatively, local roads, most of the time. This is not "FSD". They've been making very impressive incremental im…

AGI has become a philosophical term in the way you are using it. Which is fine to discuss philosophy, but to the point of the article, AI enabled automation is beginning to have significant impact on the economy due to the new functionality.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#113

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

YZF wrote: post #4

I think what Andrej is describing is more "automation" than AGI. His discussion of self-driving is more analogous to robots building cars in a Tesla factory displacing workers than anything AGI. We've already had "self driving" trains where we got rid of the human train driver. Nothing "AGI" about that. The evolution of getting cars to self drive not necessarily making the entity controlling the car more human-like i…

> I think what Andrej is describing is more "automation" than AGI

I think you're basically right - incrementally automating aspects of one human job. However, it really ought to include AGI since I personally would never trust my life to an autonomous car they didn't have human-level ability to react appropriately to an out-of-training-set emergency.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#114

Post by ben_w »

vladimirralev wrote: post #96
ben_w wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The thing is that economy does not make sense without people. Economy is a way to allocate human work and resources, and provide incentives for humans to collaborate, factoring in the available resource limits. I disagree with the underlying presumption. We've been using animal labour since at least the domestication of wolves, and mechanical work since at least the ancient Greeks invented water mills. Even with re…

> With a fully automated economy, all 8 billion of us can have that We probably can't. I mean why stop at humans? Let's give every pet the same luxury, or ... in the limit we could give this to every living being. Ultimately someone is going to draw the line who gets what and who is useful or not "for the greater good". It just happens that many living beings don't contribute to the goals of whoever is in charge and…

> We probably can't. I mean why stop at humans? Let's give every pet the same luxury, or ... in the limit we could give this to every living being. Ultimately someone is going to draw the line who gets what and who is useful or not "for the greater good".

Eh.

A line, drawn somewhere, sure.

Humans being humans, there's a good chance the rules on UBI will expand to exclude more and more people — we already see that with existing benefits systems.

But none of that means we couldn't do it.

Your example is pets. OK, give each pet their own mansion and servants, too. Why not? Hell, make it an entire O'Neill Cylinder each — if you've got full automation, it's no big deal, as (for reasonable assumptions on safety factors etc.) there's enough mass in Venus to make 500 billion O'Neill Cylinder of 8km radius by 32km length. Close to the order-of-magnitude best guess for the total number of individual mammals on Earth.

Web app to play with your size/safety/floor count/material options: https://spacecalcs.com/calcs/oneill-cylinder/

> It just happens that many living beings don't contribute to the goals of whoever is in charge and if they get in the way or cause resource waste nobody will care about them, humans or not.

Sure, yes, this is big part of AI alignment and AI safety: will it lead to humans being akin pets, or to something even less than pets? We don't care about termite mounds when we're building roads. A Vogon Constructor Fleet by any other name will be an equally bitter pill, and Earth is probably slightly easier to begin disassembling than Venus.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#115

Post by staticman2 »

a-dub wrote: post #26

"AGI: An autonomous system that surpasses human capabilities in the majority of economically valuable work." -- what an obscenely depressing reduction of a fascinating field of inquiry. who the hell snuck in and redefined the science of thinking machines to this sad and reductive get rich quick crap?

I think that definition is useful because it is measurable. It sidesteps the endless "It's just a text prediction engine/ I dunno ChatGPT seems pretty smart to me!" discussions. It also sidesteps the "It did well on a test designed to measure human intelligence it must be smarter than humans"/ "no, the test of human intelligence wasn't designed to measure machine intelligence and tells us very little" discussion.

It reduces it to "Can I fire 50% of my workforce? Then it must be AGI."

Now maybe this definition isn't so useful either, because a lot of work requires a body, to say, move physical goods, which has little to do with "intelligence" but I can see the appeal of looking for some sort of more objective measure of whether you have achieved AGI.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#116

Post by steveBK123 »

gitfan86 wrote: post #112
steveBK123 wrote: post #101

Seeing the guy who couldn't deliver FSD decide to make analogies from FSD to AGI does actually give me confidence we are decades away. Yes, yes, I know there's like 1-2 companies that have highly modified vehicles that are pretty good, in a limited geofenced area, in good weather, at low speed, driving conservatively, local roads, most of the time. This is not "FSD". They've been making very impressive incremental im…

AGI has become a philosophical term in the way you are using it. Which is fine to discuss philosophy, but to the point of the article, AI enabled automation is beginning to have significant impact on the economy due to the new functionality.

Where have LLM AIs made measurable economic impacts that weren't already using some form of AI to start with (translation, legal, content farms, marketing, robotics)?

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#117

Post by gitfan86 »

quonn wrote: post #109

I can, in principle, take someone from a group of uncontacted peoples, put them into New York and let them figure out how to drive and they likely will be able to do it after not too much time. We are not even close to any technology that could figure out driving having never been built for it.

But that is irrelevant to the point of the article.

Maybe it takes 1 million hours of computing to train a model that can generate a logo, but an average human could have learned how to do that in just 50 hours of training with Photoshop.

The point of the article is that now for pennies users can generate logos in seconds that would have previously cost hundreds of dollars and days of back and forth with a designer.

This dynamic is going to flow through the economy

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#118

Post by adrianN »

ActorNightly wrote: post #72
adrianN wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can only go so far with mapping sequences of world snapshots to control actions. Mapping some complex input state to control actions is literally the definition of driving a vehicle.

No, thats the definition of closed loop vehicle control. Driving, at least in the way humans do it, is more then that. We have internal sim running in our head that allows us to deal with conditions that we have never seen before.

The internal state is simply part of the input. Your brain holds a finite amount of information, your sensors add a finite amount of information, your brain decides on which muscles to move in which way.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#119

Post by pdimitar »

I don't trust any discussion on this topic anymore.

When I was much younger, "AI" was what "AGI" is now. Now people started using "AGI" for "cars with several sensors and okay algorithms for collision detection" and then you have loud advocates going on obviously logically broken rants about the nature of "actual" intelligence -- and those are philosophical and not scientific.

But still, we don't have anything even 1% close to AGI. And no, Chess and Go have NEVER EVER been about AGI. I have no idea how people ever mistook "combinatorics way beyond what the human brain can do" with "intelligent thought" but that super obvious mistake also explains the state of the AI sector these days, I feel.

So before long, I guess we'll need another term, probably AGIFRTTWP == Artifical General Intelligence, For Real This Time, We Promise.

And then we'll start adding numbers to it. So I am guessing Skynet / Transcendence level of AI will be at about AGIFRTTWP-6502.

As for the state of this "industry", what's going on is that people with marketing chops and vested interests hijack word meanings. Nothing new, right? But it also kills my motivation to follow anything in the field. 99.9% are just loud mouths looking for the next investment round with absolutely nothing to show for it. I think I saw on YouTube military-sponsored autonomous cars races 5+ years ago (if not 10) where they did better than what the current breed of "autonomously driving cars" are doing.

Will there be even one serious discussion about the general AI that you can put in a robot body and it can learn to clean, cook, repair and chat with you? Of course not, let's focus on yet-another-philosophical debate while pretending it's a scientific one.

As a bystander -- not impressed. You all who are in this field should be ashamed of yourselves.

Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI

#120

Post by gitfan86 »

steveBK123 wrote: post #116
gitfan86 wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI has become a philosophical term in the way you are using it. Which is fine to discuss philosophy, but to the point of the article, AI enabled automation is beginning to have significant impact on the economy due to the new functionality.

Where have LLM AIs made measurable economic impacts that weren't already using some form of AI to start with (translation, legal, content farms, marketing, robotics)?

SubReddits for copywriting and graphic design and digital art are full of people talking about how the amount of gig work available has dropped off.
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