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Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

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Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#111
post #89
post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

I'm curious how many cargo ships does the US have?

Not enough, hence a lot of DoD logistics is now done on civilian shipping via Maritime Partners program. Including Maersk who was dropping DoD contracts in September, the few ships on contract by DoD in region was refusing to go a couple weeks ago even with US escorts. The big revelation is Houthis has demonstrated US Transportation Command / US military's sealift ability is being challenged by small time Iranian proxy, so good luck on an IndoPac campaign against PRC. At least in terms of optics, feasibility of US DoD maritime logistics especially in protracted war looks to be in atrocious state. Regardless, the problem isn't really how many ships US owns, irrespective of flag - US can buy all the ships if they have to. Issue is US doesn't maintain enough dedicated personel for bulk of military transport (primarily due to working conditions despite being paid well), so they rely on civilian shipping, and it's start to look like civilian shipping increasingly uncertain of US ability to protect in SLOC choke points against TBF not particularly modern weapons.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#112
post #42
post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

MH17 was shot down by a Russian anti-aircraft missile, killing all 298 p.o.b. with no consequences for Russia. Russia has flown Bear nuclear-capable bombers over the UK (actually over land), with no consequences [1]. Russia, Iran, and North Korea all trade arms with each other and supply missiles, drones, and ammunition to the Houthi. Russia invaded Ukraine and deploy weapons from the above "axis" countries. I don't…

Though I would hope that in a hopefully civilized age such acts and war crimes would be punished prevented from happening again, I would not say there are no consequences of these actions.

Many Dutch citizens have been killed on board of MH17 - and the amount of military support to Ukraine provided by the Dutch has been quite significant.

As for Iran and North Korea - I would say some lines have been crossed there that will play out longer term, but at least it now seems to be, for some peculiar reason, easier for South Korea to ship artillery shells abroad, either directly to Ukraine or to back fill allied stocks so they can ship what they have to Ukraine.

Also I don't think Isreal/Russia relations will recover from what Iran linked terrorists did on October 7. While rather busy right now, Isreal produces some rather advanced weapon systems, one really does not want to be on the receiving end of (see the Karabakh war as an example).

Also after it became apparent Russia was behind the Vrbetice ammunition warehouse explosion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Vrb%C4%9Btice_ammunition_...), which killed 2 Czech citizens, the response was quite significant (on a 10 million citizen country scale):

* almost all Russian diplomats expelled (ending one of the bigger Russian embassies in EU)

* Russia was removed from the lucrative Dukovany nuclear power plant tender

* many Czech companies who still had relations from the soviet times with Russian companies stopped providing support and shipping replacement parts

* LOTS of kit: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/07/bohemian-brotherhood-l...

- 79 MBTS + 105 more to be restored & shipped to Ukraine

- multiple mi-24 helicopter gunships

- 100+ IFVs

- dozens of self propelled guns

- Anti Shahed technicals (!)

- 10000 RPGs, 1.5+ Million Artillery, Tank And Mortar Shells, a small mountain of small arms, a big mountain of small arms ammunition

Some of this was even crowdfuded - a tank, a Tatra based MLRS system, some of the technicals. There is also an ongoing fundraiser to buy a UH-60 Black Hawk (!): https://www.weaponstoukraine.com/kampane/cestmir

So while in reality evil is often not ended by Gandalf charging in, the same or arguable even worse result for the evildoer is often achieved over a longer time with less glorious, messy but still effective means.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#113
post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

I read a lot of professional international relations material (but I'm not an expert in any way). IME what may differ the most between 'popular' takes on IR and professional ones is the response to incidents.

Arguably the #1 priority of professional IR is to prevent wars (with occasional exceptions, such as Russia or Hamas recently, but even they want to control when, where, and how). Wars can and do happen whether you want them or not; if you want to prevent them, good will - even on both sides - is not nearly sufficient. You need to understand the mechanisms and operate them effectively. It's not about game theory, but a very human, emotional mechanism:

The fundamental mechanism is politics. The most fundamental theory of warfare, courtesy of Carl von Clausewitz, is that it is "The continuation of political intercourse, with the addition of other means ...", the other means being violence. Warfare is politics, carried out through violence rather than through elections, negotiation, etc.

Another mechanism is the cycle of escalation. You'll see non-experts say, when threatened or attacked, 'we should strike back harder!': It's emotionally satisfying, it feels safer - anger helps people feel safe in danger, and attacking feels powerful; also it sells well politically for those reasons - the politician looks 'tough' and won't be called 'weak'. And here's that fundamental mechanism, politics: Experts know that a common cause of unwanted warefare is the cycle of escalation. Both sides 'strike back harder' - the other side responds just like you do - and the political machine revs higher and hotter, and, well, war is politcs - at a certain point, you can't stop the war. One diplomat I read said, 'the job of diplomacy is to prevent a B-level problem from turning into an A-level problem'.

IR professionals need to find ways to respond - to deter and at the same time for their leaders to succeed in that political machine - without escalating. For example, years ago North Korea did something threatening regarding their nuclear weapons program. I wondered how the US would respond. The US flew a nuclear-capable (but not nuclear armed) bomber from the US, over South Korea, and back to the US. There was no threat to NK from one bomber, but the message was clear - we can reach you from the US (so destroying SK will not protect you), we have vast capabilities you don't and can't stop, we also have nukes, we have a very close relationship with SK, and we are very serious.

Another mechanism that causes warfare is a lack of flexibility, a lack of options. Popular takes on IR love to urge that a 'line in the sand' or 'redline' should be drawn - another tough, angry way to feel powerful and safe. You don't see professionals say it however. For an example of why, remember early in the Syrian civil war when Assad was dropping chemical weapons on their own population. The US publicly announced a 'redline', saying use of chemical weapons would result in (I forget what). Then Assad did it anyway. Now the US was caught - they had backed themselves in to a corner with their redline, taking away their own options. Assad chose their moment to embarass the US, and in the end, the US effectively backed down and lost credibility.

If you have no options, then the other side pulls the strings; they can force you to act when, where, and how they want - and you can assume they will chose the worst possible situation for you. You'll hear professionals say that leaders want options - lots of options. That's why. If you fight or do anything, you want to do at the time, place, and with the means of your own choosing - another phrase you'll hear.

Finally, know that these very sensitive, complex mechanims tend to produce unintended consequences, and there are no take-backs. IR professionals craft responses very carefully and try to anticipate all contingencies, and then hold their breath. If your single bomb accidentally ignites the natural gas distribution network and blows up half the city, nothing will undo that. Even if they don't want to, the enemy will be compelled - by that political mechanism - to respond as if you intentionally burned down the city and killed tens of thousands of civilians, and now you have a possible war and an enemy for generations.

Hope that helps. I wish HN had some professionals in that field to chime in here.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#114
post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

This book explains when wars serve national policy. For example, authoritarian states who failed to handle the Pandemic would also strongly suggest a tragedy must unfold to retain power. "The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics" ( 2011, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith ) https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po... Not a pleasant read, but a well reasoned mod…

Well, that was basically how the Falkland war happened.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

This may sound silly, but until this comment I, a non-gun-user, always vaguely thought that the AR in AR-15 stood for Assault Rifle. Apparently it's ArmaLite Rifle. Huh.

A division of Fairchild Aircraft, which explains how they got all those contracts with the USAF. Sadly, their connections inside the Army were not nearly as strong, resulting in the well known political/procurement issues they had turning the AR-15 into the M16.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#116
post #4

Something I'm unsure about is what does and doesn't trigger wars. Russian jets downed a US drone over the black sea in March 2023, I thought for sure there'd be a commensurate US military response. But there didn't appear to be one. Was it because no human was aboard the drone (so no response was justified), from fear or escalation, or something else? In any case, if a large cargo ship were sunk, would the US or othe…

It’s not clear that Russia intended to down the drone. They were certainly harassing it, but they didn’t attack it.

As I recall, from watching the video and reading news reports, Russian fighters were flying extremely close to the drone, harassing it, and dumping fuel on it, etc. One of them got too close and collided with it while doing this.

It’s not like they attacked the drone with weapons. They presumably easily could have.

No one died. The downing may not have been intentional. Why escalate?

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is not a superpower or even remotely close to such a status. No country besides the US is currently considered a superpower.

Any country with the ability to completely erase entire countries (i.e. has an enormous stockpile of nuclear weapons) is a superpower.

There are many other powers that a nation might have other than nuclear ability, and having nukes does not actually grant any of those other powers. North Korea, for example, may have nuclear weapons, but they have little diplomatic power, little economic power, little ability to project power, etc. The word "superpower" is typically used to describe a country that dominates many different types of these powers.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#119
post #96
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Houthis official slogan is: “God is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam." I’m petty sure they do not give a shit about making consumerism harder for Americans. In fact it’s probably a bonus.

On the other hand, this is literally the oldest, best established casus belli in the American system.

It would be a refreshing throwback to actually declare war, something the US hasn't done since 1942.

Re: Maersk ship hit by missile in the Red Sea

#120
post #19

Once again we see "blowback" in action. Here's the cycle: 1. A major power backs a side in an internal struggle for their own end. If necessary, a conflict is manufactured by propping up rebels, a coup, etc; 2. The other side, which tends to be the internally popular side, resists. Because of that popular support, they can survive, thrive and grow; 3. Insurgencies are incredibly effective. Counter-insurgencies are in…

> And now the Houthi rebels have become battle-hardened guerillas and insurgents, capable of projecting force into the vital shipping lanes of the Red Sea. Their ability to attack the red sea has nothing to do with being "battle-hardened". They can only do so because Iran decides to supply them with missiles.

Regardless where they get their weapons, Ansar Allah is a battle-hardened, professional fighting force. They have fought the powerful Saudi military to a stalemate. Not a group we should be underestimating.
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