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OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

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Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#111
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPT-4 is not solving logic problems, it's doing an extremely good job of generating text based on recognizing familiar patterns. If you give it something weird and unfamiliar, it will absolutely fail.

I’m tired of this repetitive statement which is so ridiculous. That’s what you do to! You obviously have to reason using in the fly models on how to pick the next word.

Arguably, but not absolutely.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#112
post #3

> warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, > Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, [..] Though only performing math on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s future success, the source said. I somehow expected a bit more.

Interesting, because based on my wife's stroke, it appears that the human brain implements language and math somewhat separately. She was a physics major and had completed 4 years of relevant college math courses.

After her stroke she lost the ability to do even simple arithmetic and also had great trouble with time and calendars.

However, her language skills were essentially intact until a third stroke in a different part of the other hemisphere left her with severe expressive aphasia. (Her first stroke left her with homonymous hemianopsia, but that's a loss of visual preprocessing in the occipital lobe.)

So I would not expect LLMs to have math skills unless specifically trained and specialized for math.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#114
post #3

> warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, > Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, [..] Though only performing math on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s future success, the source said. I somehow expected a bit more.

None of us have seen the letter so this may be off base, but I would expect people working at the world's most prominent AI research organization to have more skepticism about the ramifications of any one "breakthrough." Perhaps most did, but a couple didn't and wrote the letter?

More than 3 decades ago when AI started beating humans at chess, some people feared AGI was right around the corner. They were wrong.

Last year a Google researcher thought his chat bot was sentient ( https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/google-engineer-c... .) He was wrong.

Some day AGI will be achieved and Q* sounds like a great breakthrough solving an interesting piece of the puzzle. But "performing math on the level of grade-school students" is a long ways from AGI. This seems like a strange thing to have triggered the chaos at OpenAI.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#115
post #3

> warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, > Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, [..] Though only performing math on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s future success, the source said. I somehow expected a bit more.

OpenAI already benchmarks their GPTs on leetcode problems and even includes a Codeforces rating. It is not impressive at all and there's almost no progress from GPT 2 to 4. I agree, why does this grade school math problem matter if the model can't solve problems that are very precisely stated and have a very narrow solution space (at least more narrow than some vague natural language instruction)?

I suspect the truth (if this claim is true) is a lot more nuanced than "it did grade-school math", and there's more context surrounding this claim which insiders have and makes it much more interesting.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#116
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPT-4 is not solving logic problems, it's doing an extremely good job of generating text based on recognizing familiar patterns. If you give it something weird and unfamiliar, it will absolutely fail.

I’m tired of this repetitive statement which is so ridiculous. That’s what you do to! You obviously have to reason using in the fly models on how to pick the next word.

Given the amount of people who report not having an internal monologue at all, I don’t think human logic is predicated on using words. They definitely can make complex logic easier, but it’s not a requirement.

The cabbage, wolf, goat problem is also an easy example of a problem that doesn't really need words to solve once you’ve conceptualized it. You can solve it by moving physical figures back and forth, either literally on a table or using the visual imagination part of your mind if you have one.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#117
post #60

Weirdly enough, this sort of lines up with a theory posted on 4chan 4 days ago. The gist being that if the version is formally declared AGI, it can't be licensed to Microsoft and others for commercial gain. As a result Altman wants it not to be called AGI, other board members do. Archived link below. NB THIS IS 4CHAN - THERE WILL OFFENSIVE LANGUAGE. https://archive.ph/sFMXa

A link to 4Chan about how AGI is among us. That actually makes perfect sense. Also love the "formally declared AGI".

It doesn't read like the usual "redpill me on the earth being flat" type conspiracy theories. It claims to be from an Open AI insider. I'm not saying it's true, but it does sound plausible.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would be curious as to the basis for that trust. I struggle to find any reason that AGI would care about "humans" at all, other than during the short period of time it needed them to be cooperative actuators for machinery that is creating a replacement for humans that the AGI can control directly. My expectation for the chain of events goes something like: 1) AGI gains sentience 2) AGI "breaks out" of its original…

Why is the AGI interested in copying itself? Why is that more likely than the AGI becoming a nihilist, seeing no point in itself, and offing itself?

That would be a non-harm scenario. So useful to consider but you don't need to plan for it. I would be surprised if an AGI had emotions and it seems that emotions are an essential element of nilhilism but I freely acknowledge my depth of philosophy understanding is poor.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#119
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand this sentiment. Aren’t consumers doing the burning?

I'd like to have the choice not to. I have extremely limited options for that. And I already live in a country which regularly has all of its electricity generated renewably.

You have all the choice in the world. If you want, you can literally go and do subsistence farming — there are plenty countries in the world with extremely lax visa situation and plenty of empty land.

Of course, doing this would extremely hard and dangerous. But living an easier and safer life is the whole point of the industrial revolution and it's consequences, so if you truly believe that it's the disaster for the human race, this should not be a problem.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#120

Turns out a quarter of a million dollar paycheck plus whatever they get for letting Microsoft gobble them up was more pressing for the staffers. Unless these staff were the unsigned 5%.

The employees had a lot more money than that on the line.

> plus whatever they get for letting Microsoft gobble them up

The average salary there is $250k. More than that would be the vestment greater than their base, no?

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