111–120 of 158 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There should just be a pandemic or something that puts a lot of people out of work so that they have to sell at low prices so that large real estate companies can buy their houses and then rent them back to them. They can even have a reverse rental program that allows people to stay in their homes through the hard times and instead pay rent to the new owners.
Did that actually happen?
Bring it on. I can't wait to buy a house in the next 6 months. People with money who want desperately out of the renting game don't care at all about 8% interest rates. But the investors and second home buyers sure do. This has been the biggest thing keeping me out of the market since 2020; the time pressure, not the prices. I just refuse to make a massive financial decision on the spot based on a 15 minute open hous…
Bring it on. I can't wait to buy a house in the next 6 months. People with money who want desperately out of the renting game don't care at all about 8% interest rates. But the investors and second home buyers sure do. This has been the biggest thing keeping me out of the market since 2020; the time pressure, not the prices. I just refuse to make a massive financial decision on the spot based on a 15 minute open hous…
When fed lowers rates there will be another massive boom, so prepare for it!
That being said - it could be the best time to buy, but not for those that lose their job.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wouldn't describe it as a matter of fairness, thinking deeper about it. We're really just mortgaging quarterly earnings for those with major residential real estate holdings (like pension funds paying out to those born during the Baby Boom) with future economic growth at this point. When asked if they'd rather have sustainable growth that will see them able to put food on their tables 20 years from now or make the…
The other user brought up that the cost to build a home has gone up substantially, and this response seems more like an addendum onto what you were already saying rather than a response to that. Just fyi. I think there is inherent truth to what you're saying as well, in that business decisions more often than not seem driven by the dangling carrot of short term profits. But there can be a multitude of reasons why the…
Unless the housing supply increases this will just be a temporary thing. As long as people are able to make their mortgage payments they typically won't sell their homes at a loss (even if their equity is negative). Some people will always be forced to sell due to life events and that's what will set current market comps. Since mortgage rates have recently spiked upwards people who need a mortgage to buy a home can a…
The housing supply will increase dramatically in the next decade, not by building but by attrition.
More than 55% of all homes in America are owned by Silent Gens or Boomers[0]. That figure includes non-SFHs, of SFHs I've read they own >70% of (lost my source unfortunately). They are going to start dying of en masse within the next decade. That means A LOT of SFH are going to hit the market, all around the same time.
The share of millenials and genzers who are financially fit to even purchase a home are going to be far less than the amount of people who are dying.
For the non-believers, it's all written in the demographics. Unless we import a shit load of migrants who can also afford expensive real estate, or we print money so that institutions can buy these properties, the prices are going to sink like crazy.
[0]https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/homeownership-rate-...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm afraid I don't follow that. House-sellers are generally also house-buyers. They move out of one place into another. It's neutral with respect to supply. If there's a glut of people owning houses but not living in them and not successfully renting them, then that does reduce supply, but they're also suffering opportunity cost. If they're willing to throw away money like that I don't think increasing supply would h…
If someone sells a house for less than they purchased it their equity available to purchase another house decreases. Since mortgage rates have increased that means they can only afford a smaller/worse house (because they have less money to make a down payment with). So why would they sell in that situation unless they need to? People sell when their homes have appreciated because they have positive equity and can get…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If someone sells a house for less than they purchased it their equity available to purchase another house decreases. Since mortgage rates have increased that means they can only afford a smaller/worse house (because they have less money to make a down payment with). So why would they sell in that situation unless they need to? People sell when their homes have appreciated because they have positive equity and can get…
In response to your edit, what you’re still missing is that a household that decides not to sell (and thus withhold inventory from the market) is also a household that is not entering the market on the demand side. So, to a first order approximation, there is no change to ratio of supply to demand. The absolute level or supply is irrelevant. The absolute level of demand is also irrelevant. What matters is the amount…
I also understand that current sales will sell for less because there is less demand. That's why I mentioned that sales comps will be pegged to the few transactions that occur. But you have to look at the number of transactions, not just the most recent prices. In real estate you have a price cycle but also a volume cycle. Fewer transactions occur at low prices because sellers don't want to sell when prices are low. The exception would be if many people are forced to sell because they can't make their mortgage payments, but that doesn't appear likely at the moment.
Unless the housing supply increases this will just be a temporary thing. As long as people are able to make their mortgage payments they typically won't sell their homes at a loss (even if their equity is negative). Some people will always be forced to sell due to life events and that's what will set current market comps. Since mortgage rates have recently spiked upwards people who need a mortgage to buy a home can a…
I'm afraid I don't follow that. House-sellers are generally also house-buyers. They move out of one place into another. It's neutral with respect to supply. If there's a glut of people owning houses but not living in them and not successfully renting them, then that does reduce supply, but they're also suffering opportunity cost. If they're willing to throw away money like that I don't think increasing supply would h…
House sellers are generally those who have gone to meet the saints. They move from one place into another yes, but where they go they don't play any part in the housing market – I hope!
Bring it on. I can't wait to buy a house in the next 6 months. People with money who want desperately out of the renting game don't care at all about 8% interest rates. But the investors and second home buyers sure do. This has been the biggest thing keeping me out of the market since 2020; the time pressure, not the prices. I just refuse to make a massive financial decision on the spot based on a 15 minute open hous…
This is why nothing is going to "collapse." There are so many people in your position just wanting to buy the second prices start to fall a little. That will prevent any type of serious collapse and it will be more of a minor correction at best.
That said I still don't think there will be a collapse unless there is like, worse unemployment than 2008. But - prices could still easily drop 10-15% if this is a more mild recession.
Unless the housing supply increases this will just be a temporary thing. As long as people are able to make their mortgage payments they typically won't sell their homes at a loss (even if their equity is negative). Some people will always be forced to sell due to life events and that's what will set current market comps. Since mortgage rates have recently spiked upwards people who need a mortgage to buy a home can a…
>Unless the housing supply increases this will just be a temporary thing. The housing supply will increase dramatically in the next decade, not by building but by attrition. More than 55% of all homes in America are owned by Silent Gens or Boomers[0]. That figure includes non-SFHs, of SFHs I've read they own >70% of (lost my source unfortunately). They are going to start dying of en masse within the next decade. That…