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U.S. Consumers Spent More on Food in 2022 Than Ever Before (Inflation Adjusted)

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Re: U.S. Consumers Spent More on Food in 2022 Than Ever Before (Inflation Adjusted)

#111

Post by vikingerik »

paxys wrote: post #38

> Real total food spending increased 11.4 percent in 2021 and 3.4 percent in 2022, driven by higher FAFH spending (up 19 percent in 2021 and 8 percent in 2022). Real FAH spending increased by 4 percent in 2021 but decreased by 2 percent in 2022. FAH = food at home FAFH = food away from home So, eating out is killing our wallets. Not really a surprise considering "dollar menu" items at McDonalds now cost $6 and a half…

One detail here: Up 19 percent in 2021 - remember that any number from that year is comparing to the low baseline from the pandemic shutdowns in 2020, so the real effect isn't as big as it looks from that.

To see the real numbers, look at the annualized differential between 2019 and 2023.

Re: U.S. Consumers Spent More on Food in 2022 Than Ever Before (Inflation Adjusted)

#112

Post by chiefalchemist »

neogodless wrote: post #94
chiefalchemist wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not so sure about this. Cooking at home means going to the supermarket (or going online and ordering from the SM). If you have to cook for more than yourself, then you probably need to also put sometime into planning the meals for the week. And then of course there's the time to cook the meals. There's also cleanup. Also, let's not forget that there are plenty of people who never really learned to cook and now fe…

> Cooking at home means going to the supermarket (or going online and ordering from the SM). If you have to cook for more than yourself, then you probably need to also put sometime into planning the meals for the week. And then of course there's the time to cook the meals. There's also cleanup. Also, let's not forget that there are plenty of people who never really learned to cook and now fear the kitchen. There's a…

But going out...

1) It's less friction and any give point. Driving is easy when the reward is a meal. Driving is not so easy then the "reward" is the supermarket.

2) Is an event. It's exciting. It's an adventure. Again, compare than to the supermarket and cooking a meal.

At the objective level, your analysis is spot on. I do agree. I tend to not eat out or order out. But aside from myself - and yourself? - that's not how human decision-making and human behavior works.

The majority's decisions are driven by the quest for comfort.

Re: U.S. Consumers Spent More on Food in 2022 Than Ever Before (Inflation Adjusted)

#113

Post by chiefalchemist »

paxys wrote: post #92
chiefalchemist wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not so sure about this. Cooking at home means going to the supermarket (or going online and ordering from the SM). If you have to cook for more than yourself, then you probably need to also put sometime into planning the meals for the week. And then of course there's the time to cook the meals. There's also cleanup. Also, let's not forget that there are plenty of people who never really learned to cook and now fe…

Everything follows economics. If you can't cook but don't have the money to eat out you will learn to cook. If you don't have the time you will cut back on some other activity.

Good point. And that raises the question: Where are consumers spending less?

Re: U.S. Consumers Spent More on Food in 2022 Than Ever Before (Inflation Adjusted)

#114

Post by vikingerik »

conjecTech wrote: post #88

I have been fascinated by the price of oats recently. The 8lb box of oats I have been buying from Amazon for several years suddenly went from $15 to $32 in July. Paying $4/lb for grain feels excessive given that meat is cheaper than that in most of the country. I went looking for an explanation expecting there to been some huge crop loss, but found oat future prices have been relatively stable at around $0.15/lb. I l…

Don't put too much stock in just one Amazon listing. That doesn't reflect reality. Amazon listings fluctuate in price all the time. Maybe some algorithm decided to bump that one listing in hopes that regular orderers would keep buying it out of inertia.

Re: U.S. Consumers Spent More on Food in 2022 Than Ever Before (Inflation Adjusted)

#116

Post by danShumway »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #96
danShumway wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that is exactly what OP said: > It's too hard to change habits in the short term, but I fully expect that over time people are going to start cooking more and cutting back on restaurant visits and the industry is going to take a huge hit because of it. Nobody is saying people can't cook. They're saying it'll take a little while for people who aren't used to cooking to change their habits and pick up some plannin…

Oh, I interpreted it as it takes time to learn. Which, I was trying to say that the habit can be quick and easy to break, people just need the incentive. For example, if restaurant or prepared food prices went up 5x today, basically everyone (with space and appliance to cook) has the capability to buy a pan, spatula, bowl, fork, eggs, salt, pepper, and start making scrambled eggs for dinner. And then they would watch…

Sure, I buy that with enough incentive that change could happen much faster. There isn't any kind of vendor lock-in with restaurants, and I do think that cooking is much more accessible today than it used to be, even though there's probably less effort spent teaching people how to do it.

Another thing to keep in mind here is that it takes time for people to work out specific budget changes as well. Not everyone tracks their finances aggressively, and it's not surprising to me if restaurant prices go up that it would take maybe a year or two for people to start looking at their budgets and thinking, "hey, I could cut a lot here."

A 5X price increase overnight is something that would be impossible for people not to notice, but I suspect anything that's an impulse buy where the price goes up slowly to be somewhat lagging with people's reactions to those prices, and then similarly lagging with them taking the time to implement changes as a result. See also stuff like streaming services, where someone might keep a streaming service after a price increase even though they wouldn't have signed up at that price. Both inertia and just general lack-of-insight into those price increases can slow down consumer reaction.

Re: U.S. Consumers Spent More on Food in 2022 Than Ever Before (Inflation Adjusted)

#117

Post by lotsofpulp »

conjecTech wrote: post #88

I have been fascinated by the price of oats recently. The 8lb box of oats I have been buying from Amazon for several years suddenly went from $15 to $32 in July. Paying $4/lb for grain feels excessive given that meat is cheaper than that in most of the country. I went looking for an explanation expecting there to been some huge crop loss, but found oat future prices have been relatively stable at around $0.15/lb. I l…

Amazon pricing is not a reliable source of changes in cost of goods sold, especially if not shipped and sold by Amazon. Plus you are pricing in home delivery.

I would use a retailer known to keep margins as low as possible like Costco as a better gauge. I buy rolled oats all the time, and between Costco and Trader Joe’s, I have not noticed any pricing swings in oats.

Re: U.S. Consumers Spent More on Food in 2022 Than Ever Before (Inflation Adjusted)

#118

Post by vikingerik »

deathanatos wrote: post #62

I want per-capita numbers, otherwise these graphs are with "population goes up, food spending goes up". A real mystery. The only real statement we get is, > From 2019 to 2020, every State and Washington, DC, saw decreases in inflation-adjusted, per capita total food spending. But the overall graph featured near the top of the article's slope is steep enough, I think, that the per-capita number hidden somewhere in the…

"From 2019 to 2020" was going directly into the bottom of the pandemic shutdowns. Ignore that, that's a cherrypicked outlier. Compare the annualized differential from 2019 to 2023 if you want to see real numbers. (Even the first half of 2022 still had significant pandemic drag.)

Re: U.S. Consumers Spent More on Food in 2022 Than Ever Before (Inflation Adjusted)

#119

Post by edmundsauto »

conjecTech wrote: post #88

I have been fascinated by the price of oats recently. The 8lb box of oats I have been buying from Amazon for several years suddenly went from $15 to $32 in July. Paying $4/lb for grain feels excessive given that meat is cheaper than that in most of the country. I went looking for an explanation expecting there to been some huge crop loss, but found oat future prices have been relatively stable at around $0.15/lb. I l…

This may be due to how Amazon's "stock" works. Was it for sale by Amazon or a 3rd party?

I have a(n unsupported) theory that gung-ho retailers try out amazon from time to time, in an effort to expand. Maybe they hire someone who knows how to sell there. They price based on how they do in store, then after a few months do a reconciliation and realize how much money they lose due to amazon's ads/stocking/shipping costs. Then they raise prices.

Each time this happens, you see massive fluctuations upwards as they have to cover their cost + amazon's charges. Then a competitor gets a new ecomm/marketing/growth person who sees an "opportunity" because all the competition has priced things way too high. That person pitches leadership on how they can sell more items without much more effort ("thanks Jeff Bezos!"), but the actual understanding of how much it costs doesn't come until a couple of months later.

Re: U.S. Consumers Spent More on Food in 2022 Than Ever Before (Inflation Adjusted)

#120

Post by eschulz »

pkulak wrote: post #58
paxys wrote: post #38

> Real total food spending increased 11.4 percent in 2021 and 3.4 percent in 2022, driven by higher FAFH spending (up 19 percent in 2021 and 8 percent in 2022). Real FAH spending increased by 4 percent in 2021 but decreased by 2 percent in 2022. FAH = food at home FAFH = food away from home So, eating out is killing our wallets. Not really a surprise considering "dollar menu" items at McDonalds now cost $6 and a half…

Constant out-of-home dinning isn't sustainable anyway, unless you massively underpay the staff, which isn't possible when unemployment is low. Hope everyone knows how to cook, at least a little bit. I don't know that we're going back.

I think a significant percentage of restaurants in US cities pay some staff in cash; the staff cannot legally work in the US. As long as people are willing to accept this as a way to earn money, this will remain sustainable.
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