Quick math puts the total mass of all currently orbiting starlink satellites at 1582 metric tons, which is about 3.5 x the mass of the ISS. Unless I'm mistaken, this should make them responsible for the most mass in orbit.
Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow
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Re: Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow
#112Re: Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
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That's interesting to me that you think criticism of Starlink means I'm wrapped up in the culture war. I suspect that you may be wrapped up in the culture war.
It does seem like a good bet to me. Why criticize Starlink if you're not mad that Musk was one of the first and only oligarchs to criticise the Covid lockdowns? Just the constant publicity Elon's companies pull? Plenty of household names do way more evil shit on the daily than misreporting earnings.
Re: Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow
#114I read an analysis by Morgan Stanley that it costs $40B to launch the entire constellation. That doesn't include the cost of the satellite, just the launches. According to SpaceX their satellites last 5 years. That means Starlink must make, at minimum, $8B/year to maintain the constellation. `$8B/yr / ($200/mo * 12 mo) = 3.33 Million users` 3.3 million users paying $200/mo in order to break even. The starshield contr…
This is break-even on just one cost aspect though. If you add satellites, bandwidth/internet connectivity (a significant portion of the cost to service a user for traditional ISPs), renting/maintaining ground stations, marketing, and eventually R&D/offices/etc, that all rapidly increases.
Additionally, $200/m is not price competitive compared to traditional ISPs in most of the world, $20-50 is more typical for many areas, less in Africa/Asia. Yes Starlink has a USP over traditional services, but that USP won't benefit users who are already well served by traditional ISPs, so to expand outside the remote market they will need to drop prices to compete.
The maths could easily end up being $12bn/year / ($30/mo * 12m) = 33.3 million users. Is that a reasonable goal? That's a lot of paying users. That's a 4% market share in Europe and the US where there are highly developed telcos with decades of experience in this. That's a hard one, particular to achieve it in the near term (~5 years or one replacement cycle).
Re: Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
I own some SpaceX, am happy to take the chance without access to audited financials. Could go to zero, or maybe my kids will go to the moon.
How'd you get in on that? Sounds like it could be an interesting story.
Private equity marketplace as an accredited investor. I am a degenerate gambler at heart.
Re: Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow
#116I read an analysis by Morgan Stanley that it costs $40B to launch the entire constellation. That doesn't include the cost of the satellite, just the launches. According to SpaceX their satellites last 5 years. That means Starlink must make, at minimum, $8B/year to maintain the constellation. `$8B/yr / ($200/mo * 12 mo) = 3.33 Million users` 3.3 million users paying $200/mo in order to break even. The starshield contr…
Also, the business roaming plans used on airplanes, cargo ships are quite costly, I think around $2000/month.
Re: Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow
#117Here's a great video by Ordinary Things that talks about the development and proliferation of satellites over the past century, space debris, and how things could play out in the near future: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90N6IZnV85c
Especially relevant because Starlink has been causing numerous near-collisions over the past few years.
Re: Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow
#118Isn't Starlink basically a part of the US military-industrial complex hiding behind stories of private enterprise, just like many other Silicon Valley companies intricate relationship with the security state as laid out in Yasha Levines Surveillance Valley?
Military industrial MEDIA complex.
Re: Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow
#119Seems highly credible!
Re: Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unless the jamming is being performed by an anxious and needy tech mogul after a phone call with a dictator.
Yeah - this is why critical military infrastructure should not depend on the private sector.
Last I heard Elon wasn't able to get more than a Secret Clearance and does not know a decent amount of what happens with Starshield