111–120 of 133 posts
This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.
This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.
This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.
"Otis" was also the name of a Kanye West/JayZ song so I was thinking maybe it had something to do with that??
Cloudflare blocked me from accessing it. edit: wow, that was some unexpected downvotes
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Does Acapulco airport not have radar because the ATC for that part of Mexico is at Mazatlán?
i’m not an expert in this area myself. your comment made me curious though. chat gpt (GPT 4) helped me understand better: https://chat.openai.com/share/9448215d-2b65-4611-a634-f1a900...
Cloudflare blocked me from accessing it. edit: wow, that was some unexpected downvotes
It's just completely irrelevant to the article. Would you have posted a comment if your ISP was down?
Even if the site was down for everyone I would comment. Lots of people comment about “hug of death”, for example, and I find it very useful. I know it is not me and I can find an alternative.
And since it’s not down for everyone, only a few, for a new, odd, technical reason, I find it even more relevant to comment about it.
Just like it is useful when people comment when a site is not accessible from a certain country, like BBC sometimes or some YouTube video.
I see these comments often on HN and I always find them useful. They also usually are among the top comments, so likely not downvoted.
That said, I was premature in editing the comment to show my surprise in being downvoting. That, indeed, is against HN etiquete and also it was just some temporary state, since I got many more upvoted since then.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
there is already a very good theory. see this interview with an expert from Yale: https://youtu.be/CSVFpval4Dw?si=oelutbqzOGcpI8gm tldr: garbage data into the model, garbage out. Detailed summary from interview: • only 1 hurricane hunter flight was done into this storm. • mexican hurricanes just don’t get as much reporting coverage (historically). For example for atlantic hurricanes, NOAA hurricane hunter airplanes h…
Does Acapulco airport not have radar because the ATC for that part of Mexico is at Mazatlán?
We're working on this problem at Care Weather (www.careweather.com). Current wind sensing satellites only measure ocean surface winds once per day. They're too expensive for governments to build additional satellites for more frequent refresh. We're lowering their cost by three orders of magnitude and launching a constellation to get hourly updates.
> So how did every reliable model we use miss this? That’s for graduate students and researchers to answer in the coming years, because I have no formal idea. Would love to see followup on this. Wish there were some way to like bookmark or something and come back in a few years.
there is already a very good theory. see this interview with an expert from Yale: https://youtu.be/CSVFpval4Dw?si=oelutbqzOGcpI8gm tldr: garbage data into the model, garbage out. Detailed summary from interview: • only 1 hurricane hunter flight was done into this storm. • mexican hurricanes just don’t get as much reporting coverage (historically). For example for atlantic hurricanes, NOAA hurricane hunter airplanes h…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. This is a bit of a strawman. It's not that "no one thought this was possible". We've known that we will be seeing storms that are larger, stronger, and faster forming than what we've seen before. It…
I think it's wrong to imply that the current tools are 100% useless. I've seen a guy on youtube drawing on apparently elaborate weather models from multiple sources and they're just the sort of thing that would highlight the risks. This guy (Ryan Hall (y'all)) has repeatedly highlighted the high sea temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, stressing that they could produce rapid intensification of hurricanes, several time…
That's nine different prediction models, of which zero predicted anything resembling reality.
Sure, there was less data available than in other areas. Sure, there was less ground radar. Sure, fewer eye flights were made. But there have been other storms with a similar dearth of data; never before have all predictive models been so very wrong.
