Live data from Hacker News

Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

newsroom.toyota.eu

111–120 of 327 posts

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#111
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the mass adoption of BEV passenger vehicles makes hydrogen fueling stations economically infeasible, then Toyota does live by the timeline of Tesla. https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/two-of-londons-thr... Hydrogen in the US feels destined for trucking and heavy industry if it sees success anywhere, but hydrogen filling stations at truck stops aren't going to sell a lot of Mirais.

Diesel cars at one point made up the majority of European car sales before collapsing. This is still short-sighted thinking. People really need to stop thinking about current market position and start thinking about the conclusion of each technology. Just like how diesel ultimately led to another fossil fuel burning ICE car, BEVs only lead to heavy and expensive vehicles that are highly dependent on exotic metals. Wh…

Does hydrogen really have much weight advantage? The Mirai is 700 lbs heavier than an Avalon, much closer to a Model S. And the hydrogen fueled Hyundai Nexo is closer in weight to a larger Model Y than the similarly sized Tucson.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#112
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the mass adoption of BEV passenger vehicles makes hydrogen fueling stations economically infeasible, then Toyota does live by the timeline of Tesla. https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/two-of-londons-thr... Hydrogen in the US feels destined for trucking and heavy industry if it sees success anywhere, but hydrogen filling stations at truck stops aren't going to sell a lot of Mirais.

Diesel cars at one point made up the majority of European car sales before collapsing. This is still short-sighted thinking. People really need to stop thinking about current market position and start thinking about the conclusion of each technology. Just like how diesel ultimately led to another fossil fuel burning ICE car, BEVs only lead to heavy and expensive vehicles that are highly dependent on exotic metals. Wh…

Those metals may not be so exotic after all.

https://www.thestreet.com/travel/a-1-5-trillion-discovery-wa...

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#113
post #110
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Diesel cars at one point made up the majority of European car sales before collapsing. This is still short-sighted thinking. People really need to stop thinking about current market position and start thinking about the conclusion of each technology. Just like how diesel ultimately led to another fossil fuel burning ICE car, BEVs only lead to heavy and expensive vehicles that are highly dependent on exotic metals. Wh…

In the interest of disclosure, do you have some kind of connection to Toyota or the hydrogen industry? You keep saying things about BEVs which aren’t true and downplaying legitimate problems even the people trying to make hydrogen work acknowledge, which is disappointing to see because you’re not only failing to persuade anyone but also not helping the thing you love. Nobody is going to buy a FCEV because some intern…

No, I have no such connection. A better question is why there are so many people here who "know" the future of cars, despite having zero experience in the automotive industry? This comes off as one of those cultural fad, since people with minimal knowledge feel the need to lecture others.

My position is mostly from the direction of fact checking. People are blatantly BSing about BEVs, and talk about it with zero understanding of real automotive issues. The facts in favor of FCEVs speak for themselves. It is mainly awareness that is the problem.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#114
post #74
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The real issue is that BEVs are not cost effective right now, and show no sign of that happening anytime soon. That must come as quite a surprise to all of the people who’ve already found them to be cost effective. Did you mean something like “gargantuan e-SUVs and trucks”?

That either involve subsidies or significant sacrifices. The problem is that right now, a hybrid cost around $25k. It takes something like a decade of driving before you can reach cost parity, and that is assuming you have access to cheap electricity. e-SUVs and trucks are even more non-competitive.

Ford's PHEV Fusion was identical in price for hybrid and non-hybrid drivetrains.

in, what, 2010? So ... no. Hybrids aren't necessarily more expensive, they were really only substantially expensive because Toyota dealers price gouged so much for them. If the US Government (Bush was in power, so not a chance of it happening) or California had mandated Hybrid/PHEV for all consumer cars by 2015 back in year 2000, the world would have been in a much better place today.

If hybrids had been mandated earlier, we would probably see a semi-electric car with 50-100 miles of all electric range and a compact charging rotary motor range extender. BMW was close but they were also too incompetent to close the gap from their whacko i3 to a really useful long range PHEV.

Tesla's per vehicle margin is allegedly the highest in the business, and their cars, while once priced in the "low luxury" segement, are pretty much the same or less than the average cost of a new car, which is at $48,000 right now.

Maintenance costs are theoretically much better, you may be right they aren't practically since Tesla build quality is still suspect.

These figures are all for previous generation battery economics. High density LFP/LMFP and Sodium Ion batteries will place EV drivetrains fundamentally under the cost of an ICE. These cells, already in mass production, will be half to 1/3 the cost of Nickel Cobalt cells, and essentially the same density at pack level since they don't require extensive cooling/safety systems due to inherent safety.

Solid state batteries may be like fusion at this point. The true economic victory for EVs is LFP/Sodium Ion (especially if the roadmap for 250wh/kg LFP and 200 wh/kg sodium ion bears fruit in a couple of years) which are the path to affordable city transportation with no cobalt, nickel, or even lithium. If fusion became "viable" in a sustained manner, it probably couldn't beat nuclear for LCOE cost. Likewise a mass produced solid state battery probably won't be more economical than the new LFP/Sodium Ion batteries for mass market cars. Will be very significant for trucks, short planes, etc though.

Of course why hasn't this trickled down yet? Apparently car manufacturers can't as effortlessly switch over as you suggest.

You seem very pro-Toyota. I would be very concerned about Toyota because they are 10 years behind and have dinosaurs for executive leadership. Kia/Hyundai have loads of fairly competitive EVs available, but still, crickets from Toyota and split mind syndrome over hydrogen. It's sad that the world leader in car manufacturing and the jewel of the Japanese economy is so asleep at the switch. There's still time, Toyota's engineers are no joke, and they can probably just buy / steal some Chinese EV company's tech and designs, or partner with Nissan.

Gas is inherently subsidized. First, nobody pays for the carbon, but I get the impression you aren't a global warming guy. Fine. The IMF says that fossil fuel subsidies were 7 trillion dollars last year. If one was honest, they'd realize that the US Navy and Marines exist as power projection to ensure oil resource access and shipping. Taxation in the US is for road construction, and has nothing to do with any environmental externalities and damage that fossil fuels are causing.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#115
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Diesel cars at one point made up the majority of European car sales before collapsing. This is still short-sighted thinking. People really need to stop thinking about current market position and start thinking about the conclusion of each technology. Just like how diesel ultimately led to another fossil fuel burning ICE car, BEVs only lead to heavy and expensive vehicles that are highly dependent on exotic metals. Wh…

Does hydrogen really have much weight advantage? The Mirai is 700 lbs heavier than an Avalon, much closer to a Model S. And the hydrogen fueled Hyundai Nexo is closer in weight to a larger Model Y than the similarly sized Tucson.

The Mirai is a converted Toyota Crown, and is basically a large luxury car. The Nexo is something like 500 lbs lighter than the Y. Also, at the ranges they provide (350-400 miles), BEVs will need to weigh closer to 5000 lbs to match that.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#116
post #109
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is BEV propaganda. Toyota's hydrogen bet has yet to be even tested. There is a very good chance that batteries get disrupted by hydrogen. In that scenario, almost everyone is decades behind Toyota.

Something you can just look at being used in the real world can’t be propaganda. I know people who have been driving BEVs for over a decade and while they’d be the first to tell you there are real problems (e.g. long road trips) but it’s a commodity technology they’ve been using, so clearly it works for many people. Since people have been using them all over the world at scale, you can get reliable data on how it’s w…

People who have actually driven FCEVs will tell you they work basically identical to BEVs. They make it a point to mention that there are no problems with the cars themselves.

In reality, the moment hydrogen becomes comparably as cheap and available as gasoline or diesel, it is likely the end of the BEV. It is the availability of fuel that is the fundamental problem right now.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#117
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That either involve subsidies or significant sacrifices. The problem is that right now, a hybrid cost around $25k. It takes something like a decade of driving before you can reach cost parity, and that is assuming you have access to cheap electricity. e-SUVs and trucks are even more non-competitive.

Ford's PHEV Fusion was identical in price for hybrid and non-hybrid drivetrains. in, what, 2010? So ... no. Hybrids aren't necessarily more expensive, they were really only substantially expensive because Toyota dealers price gouged so much for them. If the US Government (Bush was in power, so not a chance of it happening) or California had mandated Hybrid/PHEV for all consumer cars by 2015 back in year 2000, the wor…

I'm pretty sure the PHEV Fusion was more expensive. They also gave up on it too soon and without informing the customer that they existed. Toyota is currently selling hybrids and PHEVs without any lack of demand.

The rest of your post is just a giant rant. It touches on way too many points for me to address and it is just mostly just wishful thinking. Case in point, you talk about na-ion batteries as if it was real. I remember people from last year talking about how they already exist, and yet they still don't exist. A classic example of "I'll believe it when I see it." The only thing that seems based in reality is the part where you admit Tesla's build quality is suspect.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#118
post #113
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the interest of disclosure, do you have some kind of connection to Toyota or the hydrogen industry? You keep saying things about BEVs which aren’t true and downplaying legitimate problems even the people trying to make hydrogen work acknowledge, which is disappointing to see because you’re not only failing to persuade anyone but also not helping the thing you love. Nobody is going to buy a FCEV because some intern…

No, I have no such connection. A better question is why there are so many people here who "know" the future of cars, despite having zero experience in the automotive industry? This comes off as one of those cultural fad, since people with minimal knowledge feel the need to lecture others. My position is mostly from the direction of fact checking. People are blatantly BSing about BEVs, and talk about it with zero unde…

> It is mainly awareness that is the problem.

Awareness and the 30 hour drive to the closest hydrogen fuel station

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#119
post #116
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something you can just look at being used in the real world can’t be propaganda. I know people who have been driving BEVs for over a decade and while they’d be the first to tell you there are real problems (e.g. long road trips) but it’s a commodity technology they’ve been using, so clearly it works for many people. Since people have been using them all over the world at scale, you can get reliable data on how it’s w…

People who have actually driven FCEVs will tell you they work basically identical to BEVs. They make it a point to mention that there are no problems with the cars themselves. In reality, the moment hydrogen becomes comparably as cheap and available as gasoline or diesel, it is likely the end of the BEV. It is the availability of fuel that is the fundamental problem right now.

The availability will be the biggest problem for the next decade, unless governments force it with huge subsidies.

The EU has mandated that every "major highway" must have a H2 depot every 2-300km, can't remember exactly.

But still you need to get it made somewhere, preferably not from natural gas, because that's just stupid. It needs to be transported to a station, by truck, on a regular schedule or it'll stop working.

Compared to EV chargers which are, in essence, glorified power outlets.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#120
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would assume, but perhaps be wrong, that it would be liquid Hydrogen pumped into a vehicle's tank, and much like a tank of propane, the liquid expands back into a gas as pressure decreases (due to consumption). Hydrogen vehicles have the advantage of being refillable in minutes, much like petrol based vehicles - yet the only byproduct is water vapor, making them completely environmentally friendly. Hydrogen is also…

> I would really like to know more about why Hydrogen vehicles did not take off as much as electric. Lots of reasons. So, here's some off the top of my head. * Infrastructure - There's no hydrogen distribution system in place. Further, hydrogen is trickier to distribute/store. It's not like gas where you can just have a big empty metal drum that you fill and discharge. Consider, for example, that as gases expand they…

> You can't just specify a diameter and go from there. You must create a seal to prevent hydrogen from leaking from the pump. It's doable, but also dangerous if you get it wrong.

Imagine the amount of people who mess up refueling an ICE vehicle. Now extrapolate that to H2 refuelling where we're dealing with a highly flammable gas in extremely high pressures.

> Electricity is already distributed. The fact that you are writing here on hacker news means you have a source of electricity that could potentially power your car.

Exactly. The BEV doubters seem to think that everyone in the world drives 600 miles without stopping for over 30 seconds every single day.

When in fact the average person could charge from a normal power outlet overnight all they need for the next day and ever a little surplus. Effectively keeping the battery full at all times, making that weekend road trip a breeze.

Post reply on HN