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TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, NXP to jointly build semiconductor fab in Europe

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Re: TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, NXP to jointly build semiconductor fab in Europe

#111
post #14

Sort of incredible that Germany is getting decade old technology for this much investment.

Im rather sure Robert Bosch and Infineon are aware of what chips they need. Obviously not the Zen 5, M3 or Meteor Lake.

Germany needs CPUs for the industry. Cars, machines, planes, wind turbines and so on :)

But you cannot build Personal-Computers with them? That failure is caused by Siemens (Siemens-Nixdorf) and AEG. In GDR/DDR they were close to build a 386 compatible CPU. The remaining knowledge is still somewhat available, Global Foundries in Dresden.

But the CPUs for PC? Yes. Yes. Okay. Intel will build a Fab there, too ;)

Re: TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, NXP to jointly build semiconductor fab in Europe

#112
post #3

Wonder if the Taiwanese govt at some point will step in and block these onshoring measures as a matter of national security. If countries are less reliant on manufacturing within Taiwan, its one less reason to stand up to Beijing's one China principle.

People who don't understand what OP just wrote should look at what just happened to the South Korean semiconductor market. over 36% plunge in exports[] and that samsungs memory profit dropped 95%[]. Yes, they depend on ASML, but ASML itself was dependent on IP from TSMC engineers. TSMC already announced that they will stop applying for subsidies from the Chip Act[] in the US recently because the US keeps changing wha…

> the US has been talking about bombing TSMC themselves[]

The U.S. said nothing of the sort. One Congressman, in the minority no less, did.

Re: TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, NXP to jointly build semiconductor fab in Europe

#113
post #99

What irony if chips bring wealth to saxony, when chip production in the GDR was one of the reason it collapsed.

I’m not familiar with the story, can you elaborate a bit on the chip production being a reason of GDR collapse?

Great video from Asianometry on this topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxrkC-pMH_s

Re: TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, NXP to jointly build semiconductor fab in Europe

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More like the opposite, by making ties with other countries, Taiwan will win some geopolitical points. TSMC alone has no control over if the Chinese government will commit such aggression, if they would do their whole company strategy based on fearing the CCP, there's no way they can be successful.

I think this is true. China is working really hard to get it's domestic semiconducter industry up to speed. They are willing to burn a lot of money and time to reach their overall political goal of annexing Taiwan even if it takes a very very long time. Ultimately it's unrealistic to assume that a country of 1.4 Billion people can not catch up eventually espescially if they would otherwise have to rely on a global co…

> it's unrealistic to assume that a country of 1.4 Billion people can not catch up eventually

Why? By 2100, each of Pakistan, the D.R.C. and Kenya are forecast to have larger populations than America [1]. Is it unrealistic to assume they won’t be at parity with the west in eighty years? (Note: not saying dismiss entirely. Just baselines.)

China has a lot going for it in semiconductors. Demography isn’t one of them. The population is aging and shrinking. That, ceteris paribus, reduces surplus capital for R&D.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...

Re: TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, NXP to jointly build semiconductor fab in Europe

#115
post #99

What irony if chips bring wealth to saxony, when chip production in the GDR was one of the reason it collapsed.

I’m not familiar with the story, can you elaborate a bit on the chip production being a reason of GDR collapse?

The collapse of the GDR has many reasons, mostly it ran out of money during the 80s. There have been several reasons for running out of money, e.G. taking on massive credit in the 70s to produce more consumer goods and build flats (the reason Honecker was very popular after his coup against Ulbricht), which it had problems to pay back in the 80s. Also minor things like spending millions on importing coffee (all experiments to replace coffee with something else failed - Vietnam is one of the worlds biggest coffee exporters because of GDR investments that came too late).

Another reason was Russia cutting cheap oil during the 70s after the oil shock. The GDR had imported cheap oil from Russia, was refining it and selling it with high margins to the West for $/Deutsche Mark. That source of money dried up in the 80s.

With sparse resources, the GDR was between a rock and a hard place. For modern production it needed chips, reverse engineering western chips e.G. Z80s (reverse engineered chip called U880 in the GDR) or smuggling chips was very expensive (~5-10x the price). Building chips on their own was also expensive. But they decided to invest billions into home grown chip production (they smuggled a whole factory via Austria, see "Red Fini") leading to the famous 1mbit chip "U61000" - which was old at that time, also the Japanese produced the same amount of chips in a day that the GDR was able to produce in a year. So things went nowhere.

But those billions were not available for other things.

Without money ($, Deutsche Mark), in the 80s to pay back credits to western banks a lot of vegetables, fruits and consumer products like clothing and washing maschines were exported to the West (most of the fruit production of the GDR around West Berlin went to West Berlin, many products in the West German QUELLE catalogue - like Sears - were made in the GDR). These products were missing in local shops, shelves were often empty, especially outside the large cities like Berlin, Leipzig and Dresden.

Additionally factories in the 80s in the GDR were in a very bad state (my father in law was head of production in a large machine factory in East Berlin during that time), lots of stuff was being stolen on a constant basis, maschines were old and lacked computer support (see above). This again reduced available consumer goods.

Because consumer goods were scarce, when things were available people bought more than they needed, leading to more scarcity (as seen during the pandemic). It is said that every household in the GDR had a second car as spare parts (another example are agricultural factories hoarding harvester spare parts, so when broke down, spare parts where hard to get).

Missing consumer goods in the GDR led people to leave their jobs in factories whenever something was available, e.G. rain boots, which reduced productivity even more.

In the end so many things were missing that people mass fled the GDR when Hungary opened the border.

All this together made the Central Committee believe everything is lost (book to read in German "Das Ende der SED - Die letzten Tage des Zentralkomitees" with meeting notes from the Central Committee), and the Russians not willing to come to help with tanks this time [0] (like they did in 1953 to kill Germans to keep the communists in power in East Germany) power was transfered to the people leading to reunification.

[0] For comparison: When Poland went bancrupt in 1980/1981 Russia and the GDR were near an invasion - which Poland prevented with a military coup.

Re: TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, NXP to jointly build semiconductor fab in Europe

#116
post #62

This smells of government-subsidized terrible ideas. German energy costs, land costs, lack of water, crazy high taxes, and anti-business governments. OTOH Netherlands would make a much better option in almost every angle. And add having ASML engineers around the corner.

As a dumb American, can you help explain how energy costs, land costs, and water supply can be that significantly different across an open border?

All of those vary significantly between US states too.

Re: TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, NXP to jointly build semiconductor fab in Europe

#117
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest concern for Germany is chip supply for the industry, especially the automotive sector, machinery, military and so on. 28/22 and 16/12 chips are still going to dominate in that sector for a long time.

that's if we don't expect Germany to become an AI powerhouse, where GPUs are useful. Apparently this does not seem to be a priority.

What lacks in Germany is not GPUs. In fact cluster time is abundant for researchers at top tier research institutes or unis. What lacks is private investment. The whole economy is controlled by a bunch of old fucks who have no clue about any kind of tech and no appetite for risk. Because of the lack of private investment there are also no jobs in the field.

Re: TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, NXP to jointly build semiconductor fab in Europe

#118
post #14

Sort of incredible that Germany is getting decade old technology for this much investment.

MCUs are created using still relatively ancient tech and we still have shortages of those.

Many chips don't need fancy new tech.

Re: TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, NXP to jointly build semiconductor fab in Europe

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is true. China is working really hard to get it's domestic semiconducter industry up to speed. They are willing to burn a lot of money and time to reach their overall political goal of annexing Taiwan even if it takes a very very long time. Ultimately it's unrealistic to assume that a country of 1.4 Billion people can not catch up eventually espescially if they would otherwise have to rely on a global co…

> it's unrealistic to assume that a country of 1.4 Billion people can not catch up eventually Why? By 2100, each of Pakistan, the D.R.C. and Kenya are forecast to have larger populations than America [1]. Is it unrealistic to assume they won’t be at parity with the west in eighty years? (Note: not saying dismiss entirely. Just baselines.) China has a lot going for it in semiconductors. Demography isn’t one of them. T…

> By 2100, each of Pakistan, the D.R.C. and Kenya are forecast to have larger populations than America. Is it unrealistic to assume they won’t be at parity with the west in eighty years?

Pakistan has the best chances to rise, at least assuming religious / ethnic tensions can be somewhat placated, it doesn't become a hotbed of natural disasters like last year's floods and they don't either get into open war with India or suffer from some sort of coups by the military or secret services.

Kenya and especially Congo? That's a different game entirely. Climate change, utter poverty and endemic corruption are just a couple of the hurdles to pass.

Re: TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, NXP to jointly build semiconductor fab in Europe

#120
post #3

Wonder if the Taiwanese govt at some point will step in and block these onshoring measures as a matter of national security. If countries are less reliant on manufacturing within Taiwan, its one less reason to stand up to Beijing's one China principle.

People who don't understand what OP just wrote should look at what just happened to the South Korean semiconductor market. over 36% plunge in exports[] and that samsungs memory profit dropped 95%[]. Yes, they depend on ASML, but ASML itself was dependent on IP from TSMC engineers. TSMC already announced that they will stop applying for subsidies from the Chip Act[] in the US recently because the US keeps changing wha…

All this while demand is not growing like it once was. Lot of these projects will bomb. And the west doesnt have docile easy to dominate labour that east asia has. They will never achieve the same margins. And as soon as China-Taiwan chapter is over, corporate robots will happily return.
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