111–120 of 177 posts
Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.
Seems unlikely tbh, he will turn into a martyr, and irradiation of NATO countries will trigger A5.
What is the state of decentralized betting platforms where people can place crypto on their predictions? Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.
Metaculus has regime change at 16% right now: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-re...
What is the state of decentralized betting platforms where people can place crypto on their predictions? Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.
My estimation: short term it will fail. Long term it will lead to substantial power movement. Most of the young nationalistic russians are Wagner fans and despise the ordinary military, they view as corrupt and incompetent (which might be very true). But they have been the fuel of the war. If Wagner is no more, or just a soulless hulk, this fuel is gone and moral will drop significantly. And the current options for P…
I don't see that happening.
> Swift Forecaster: 42%. Very uncertain about this right now. after the west being duped by him time and again, has there been zero introspection into our own biases? How is anyone believing this?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've had the exact thought, it looks as if we are further descending into apocalyptic territory. You have people capable of extreme destruction being cornered into an existential state, leaving them with very little rational options. This is when the irrational options starts appearing very rational.. True or not, what if this appears like a western backed coup to Putin and his inner circle. The kind of retaliations…
I'm not sure the Kremlin is full of irrational individuals ready see their country totally annihilated. I suspect the Kremlin is full of self-serving individuals determined to look after their own self-interest. They'll be happy to see Putin hang on, provided of course his success aligns with their success. But if their interests could be better served supporting someone else, they will quickly flip allegiances.
When you put rational people in extremely chaotic situations, they tend to make very irrational choices.
As of just a few hours ago we just entered a world where the following is an actual possibility, albeit an unlikely possibility: Prigozhin closes in, creating an existential crises for Putin and his inner circle. They believe this is a western backed coup where defeat isn't just personal but also defeat for Russia. Putin & his inner circle are put in a position to consider retaliation under the context of a rapidly deteriorating existential crises.
I'm a voracious consumer of history and I can tell the one thing you learn from history is how a set of seemingly unrelated harmless dominos change the world overnight whether if its the death of a duke from a second tier power or the ambition of a failed artist.
I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because its a staged rebellion to end the war while saving the face of the current leadership, and hopefully avoid civil war.
How are they saving face? Internal power struggles are a sign of weakness. Putin does not like to appear weak. Now while it certainly has staged elements, the power struggle between Wagner and the regular army is very real. But the outcome hopefully will actually lead to ending the war (blaming it on the Wagner traitors). Or worst case, all out nuclear war.
Nonetheless, if Russia ceases their aggression after this then it wouldn't have been defeated by Ukraine. You'd basically end up with non-patriots having caused the loss, as such you'll have a group of people to blame.
My estimation: short term it will fail. Long term it will lead to substantial power movement. Most of the young nationalistic russians are Wagner fans and despise the ordinary military, they view as corrupt and incompetent (which might be very true). But they have been the fuel of the war. If Wagner is no more, or just a soulless hulk, this fuel is gone and moral will drop significantly. And the current options for P…
> defect to Ukraine I don't see that happening.
But he knows, that he will confirm in the eye of the russian public, that he is a traitor then. But officially he already is and his loyal forces can never take Moscow.