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Europe: Is compulsory military service coming back?

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Re: Europe: Is compulsory military service coming back?

#111

Post by The_Colonel »

roenxi wrote: post #68
ethbr0 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would "de-fuse this situation" have looked like?

The ones that leap out to me are: * Investment in Russia post-USSR collapse to replicate what happened in Germany after WWII. * Not expanding NATO towards Moscow in the 1990s-2010s (including the discovery that Ukraine is de-facto partially under the NATO security umbrella). * Working to bring Russia into a security alliance targeted at China. * The US not adopting a policy of prolonging the war in Ukraine to bleed o…

> Investment in Russia post-USSR collapse to replicate what happened in Germany after WWII.

Allied powers occupied Germany which made sure that Germany won't simply use that money to re-arm for the next war. No control like that existed for Russia.

> Not expanding NATO towards Moscow in the 1990s-2010s

That amounts to letting Russia recollect its empire piece by piece. The idea that Russia would just like that lose its imperialism, if only we were nicer to them, is naive.

Even then, why should we assume that letting Russia recollect its empire would Russia make a West's friend? That's basically cold war 2.0.

> The US not adopting a policy of prolonging the war in Ukraine to bleed out the Russian military.

I guess we all wish Ukraine/US/West could expulse Russia out of Ukraine outright, but that does not seem possible. I don't think US is prolonging the war intentionally, but simply because of real constraints.

Re: Europe: Is compulsory military service coming back?

#112

Post by [deleted] »

crote wrote: post #23

It simply doesn't make any sense for most European countries. First of all, there is no viable way to actually use conscripts. Sending them overseas to die over a patch of dirt is a really bad move, as the Vietnam war has shown. Europe doesn't really want to invade anyone, so you're left with defense. So who's going to invade? The only foe even worth considering is Russia - and NATO's combined professional armies are…

[deleted]

Re: Europe: Is compulsory military service coming back?

#113

Post by jemmyw »

looping__lui wrote: post #59
crote wrote: post #23

It simply doesn't make any sense for most European countries. First of all, there is no viable way to actually use conscripts. Sending them overseas to die over a patch of dirt is a really bad move, as the Vietnam war has shown. Europe doesn't really want to invade anyone, so you're left with defense. So who's going to invade? The only foe even worth considering is Russia - and NATO's combined professional armies are…

This bunch of “unmotivated young men/people” are the least likely to get a war eagerly started but are REALLY only willing to fight if it’s necessary (e.g someone invading their home country and firing artillery at their home village). In most countries the military doesn’t serve “the people” but the will of politics. If a big portion of your military IS YOUR SOCIETY (e.g., young men very happily doing a lot of stuff…

> Having conscripts as an important foundation of your military can bring a lot of peace and stability

I don't think there's any evidence for that one way or the other. I think you could also make a convincing argument that a professional military with a higher bar of recruits and a strong standing in law is less likely to do random shit for politicians. I'm not making that argument, just saying you need to back up such assertions.

Re: Europe: Is compulsory military service coming back?

#114

Post by oneTbrain23 »

If this is due to Ukraine war, let's be mindful Putin wanted to join earlier during Bush Jr reign. Again, Putin accepted implementation of Minsk 1 and 2 but Nato insist of creating war path. So European going to die enmass in coming WW3 is fully on them. Most of my richer european friends and colleagues already sending their kids and love one to Asia side. They have American passports but quite a few cancelled that as the future is in Asia. Sometime voting is not the answer. Violent is. Today the freedom in the west are nearly all attain through violence. Europeans that allow thenselves on the war path is the same as tjose Germans that allow a small minority of Nazi turning their coubtry into graveyards. Vigilantee assassination maybe illegal but morally it is right. Sometime doing the right thing is hard but have to for tge good of many.

Re: Europe: Is compulsory military service coming back?

#115

Post by _kbh_ »

oneTbrain23 wrote: post #114

If this is due to Ukraine war, let's be mindful Putin wanted to join earlier during Bush Jr reign. Again, Putin accepted implementation of Minsk 1 and 2 but Nato insist of creating war path. So European going to die enmass in coming WW3 is fully on them. Most of my richer european friends and colleagues already sending their kids and love one to Asia side. They have American passports but quite a few cancelled that a…

> If this is due to Ukraine war, let's be mindful Putin wanted to join earlier during Bush Jr reign.

Let’s be mindful that Russia wanted to ascend to NATO differently to everyone else.

This is against NATOs policy that everyone joins in the same way.

Russia then abandoned its application when they where told to apply like everyone else.

Russia, not NATO rejected that relationship.

> Again, Putin accepted implementation of Minsk 1 and 2 but Nato insist of creating war path.

Russia also signed the Budapest Memorandum that didn’t stop them from invading.

Russia only follows international agreements when it favours them and flagrantly breaks them when it wants to.

> Vigilantee assassination maybe illegal but morally it is right. Sometime doing the right thing is hard but have to for tge good of many.

I agree someone must kill Putin before he escalates this to world war 3, the new fascist beast with its Z swastika must be stopped in time before it makes things worse.

We mustn’t let the new Hitler take his Sudetenland.

Re: Europe: Is compulsory military service coming back?

#116

Post by looping__lui »

jemmyw wrote: post #113
looping__lui wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This bunch of “unmotivated young men/people” are the least likely to get a war eagerly started but are REALLY only willing to fight if it’s necessary (e.g someone invading their home country and firing artillery at their home village). In most countries the military doesn’t serve “the people” but the will of politics. If a big portion of your military IS YOUR SOCIETY (e.g., young men very happily doing a lot of stuff…

> Having conscripts as an important foundation of your military can bring a lot of peace and stability I don't think there's any evidence for that one way or the other. I think you could also make a convincing argument that a professional military with a higher bar of recruits and a strong standing in law is less likely to do random shit for politicians. I'm not making that argument, just saying you need to back up s…

Switzerland, Germany (post-WWII until somewhat recently) versus like UK, US, France?

If your military consists of your society instead of a “professionally hired military” that only answers to politicians instead of their girlfriends, mums n dads - I’d argue: less military “peace missions” abroad?

Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya - rings a bell? You think you could have send conscripts there?

“Strong standing in law” - Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya; you think the PEOPLE of these countries would agree???

Re: Europe: Is compulsory military service coming back?

#117

Post by WirelessGigabit »

crote wrote: post #23

It simply doesn't make any sense for most European countries. First of all, there is no viable way to actually use conscripts. Sending them overseas to die over a patch of dirt is a really bad move, as the Vietnam war has shown. Europe doesn't really want to invade anyone, so you're left with defense. So who's going to invade? The only foe even worth considering is Russia - and NATO's combined professional armies are…

It actually wouldn't be that bad. After high school many European countries have 2-3 months of a break before most of them start college. Plenty of time to do a bootcamp.

That way you have a group of people with the basics. Based on that you can make further selections.

And it it should absolutely be possible to combine it with the first year of college.

Re: Europe: Is compulsory military service coming back?

#118

Post by roenxi »

The_Colonel wrote: post #111
roenxi wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ones that leap out to me are: * Investment in Russia post-USSR collapse to replicate what happened in Germany after WWII. * Not expanding NATO towards Moscow in the 1990s-2010s (including the discovery that Ukraine is de-facto partially under the NATO security umbrella). * Working to bring Russia into a security alliance targeted at China. * The US not adopting a policy of prolonging the war in Ukraine to bleed o…

> Investment in Russia post-USSR collapse to replicate what happened in Germany after WWII. Allied powers occupied Germany which made sure that Germany won't simply use that money to re-arm for the next war. No control like that existed for Russia. > Not expanding NATO towards Moscow in the 1990s-2010s That amounts to letting Russia recollect its empire piece by piece. The idea that Russia would just like that lose i…

> Allied powers occupied Germany which made sure that Germany won't simply use that money to re-arm for the next war. No control like that existed for Russia.

I mean; look at China? The US didn't need to occupy them. They're much worse than the Russians when you look at the organisation of their political class - trigger that sort of prosperity in Russia and we'd probably be seeing them just bunkered down waiting for Siberia to thaw through global warming. It'd certainly have allayed their fears about an eventual US attack if the US had been investing in their success instead of spending the last few decades preparing a military response.

> The idea that Russia would just like that lose its imperialism, if only we were nicer to them, is naive.

Russia literally dismantled their own empire in 1990. They aren't a top-10 power. They aren't going to reclaim the USSR; they can barely even reclaim the Donbass. Even without US interference they couldn't plausibly fight Poland or the Nordics without being ruined. Norway, population the size of a large city, has an economy within spitting distance of the economy of all of Russia!

People can pretend that Russia is an imperialist power, or driven by imperialist ambition, or whatever but that just casts doubt on all the other propaganda being thrown about. They can't plausibly enact any sort of imperialist vision.

> I don't think US is prolonging the war intentionally, but simply because of real constraints.

Well, think what you will but the US has done nothing to end the war. They could negotiate and end to all this without too much effort.

Re: Europe: Is compulsory military service coming back?

#119

Post by The_Colonel »

roenxi wrote: post #118
The_Colonel wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Investment in Russia post-USSR collapse to replicate what happened in Germany after WWII. Allied powers occupied Germany which made sure that Germany won't simply use that money to re-arm for the next war. No control like that existed for Russia. > Not expanding NATO towards Moscow in the 1990s-2010s That amounts to letting Russia recollect its empire piece by piece. The idea that Russia would just like that lose i…

> Allied powers occupied Germany which made sure that Germany won't simply use that money to re-arm for the next war. No control like that existed for Russia. I mean; look at China? The US didn't need to occupy them. They're much worse than the Russians when you look at the organisation of their political class - trigger that sort of prosperity in Russia and we'd probably be seeing them just bunkered down waiting for…

> trigger that sort of prosperity in Russia and we'd probably be seeing them just bunkered down waiting for Siberia to thaw through global warming.

Russia during late 2000s and early 2010s has been more prosperous than ever, yet Crimea invasion and annexation, Donbas invasion happened. No, you can't undo imperialism through money. You can make it more powerful with money, though.

> Russia literally dismantled their own empire in 1990.

No, it certainly wasn't "Russia", only some of its ruling class making that decision under pressure. A historical aberration.

Even then there was kicking and screaming, with violent suppression in Baltics. Yeltsin never let go of imperialism either with keeping Moldova and Georgia unstable and talking about unification with Ukraine and Belarus (Russia was too weak to do anything about that, though, so all in friendly manners for now).

> They aren't a top-10 power. They aren't going to reclaim the USSR; they can barely even reclaim the Donbass.

Militarily they of course are. They aren't going to reclaim the USSR, mainly because some of the countries in questions are already off limits as members of NATO. I'm pretty sure that if Baltic States were not members of NATO, they wouldn't be sovereign nations at this point of time.

> They can't plausibly enact any sort of imperialist vision.

Have you watched Russian media recently?

> They could negotiate and end to all this without too much effort.

As usual, where "negotiations" means "surrender".

Re: Europe: Is compulsory military service coming back?

#120

Post by roenxi »

The_Colonel wrote: post #119
roenxi wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Allied powers occupied Germany which made sure that Germany won't simply use that money to re-arm for the next war. No control like that existed for Russia. I mean; look at China? The US didn't need to occupy them. They're much worse than the Russians when you look at the organisation of their political class - trigger that sort of prosperity in Russia and we'd probably be seeing them just bunkered down waiting for…

> trigger that sort of prosperity in Russia and we'd probably be seeing them just bunkered down waiting for Siberia to thaw through global warming. Russia during late 2000s and early 2010s has been more prosperous than ever, yet Crimea invasion and annexation, Donbas invasion happened. No, you can't undo imperialism through money. You can make it more powerful with money, though. > Russia literally dismantled their o…

> As usual, where "negotiations" means "surrender".

A quarter of Ukraine's population has decamped, now lives in Russia or died, 15% of what was their their land in 2010 is now in Russian hands, their infrastructure is slowly being pulverised and their allies plan on having them die gloriously to achieve geopolitical objectives. If a generation of young men haven't been killed off yet they'll get there at this rate. The last 6 months has achieved the grisly fall of Bakhmut and not much more that I recall. Lots of bodies. There are nukes being set up in Belarus pointed at Kyiv and/or the rest of Europe. And pouring weapons into one of the most corrupt countries in Europe is also going to have repercussions, somehow.

They can keep fighting or they can stop fighting. Fighting isn't working out very well. Life is unfair.

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