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Germany Falls into Recession

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Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#111

Post by c00lio »

nforgerit wrote: post #102

German speaking. My personal summary of Germany’s technical problems in all different areas boils down to “arrogance”. - Whenever I had the chance to talk to „leadership“ people about the lack of progress in transforming energy production towards renewables they were essentially telling me “all is good, we have a great deal with Gasprom, they will always deliver because we’re too important for them” - Whenever I aske…

German industry is also very lazy with any kind of R&D and even minimal risk-taking, to the point of requiring research subsidies to look into anything new. German car makers started looking into EVs and hydrogen powered cars 30 years ago, but only because of the government paying them to do so, consistently and repeatedly. When the money dried up because the programs ended, research stopped. A few years later, Tesla ate their lunch and half their dinner, because the car industry just wasn't interested if it wasn't subsidized.

The overall level of subsidy-dependence in the economy is so large that no new undertaking will be done without a corresponding subsidy of some kind. Where an American might look for venture capital, a European (and especially a German) will look for a government subsidy program. Any industry that doesn't look for and mold itself along those subsidies will be leaving money on the table, therefore becoming uncompetitive. That means that all our industry will always be shaped by political programs and will always lag years behind the rest of the world.

The chain will always be:

foreign company does new thing X -> X looks good -> EU/German politician envies X -> subsidies for X -> EU/German industry does X in the exact size and amount of the subsidies.

And of course each of those arrows will be a year or more.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#112

Post by c00lio »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #110
c00lio wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That too. German car makers got lazy with research and development. In addition, they were hesitant to give up their investment in ICE production, risk staff reductions, and corresponding political and strike problems. This lead to most of the knowledge around EVs being developed and patented elsewhere, especially battery knowledge is firmly in Chinese hands. At the same time the grandparent is also right, China wise…

Shipping and trade barriers are still significant for vehicles. The fact that BYD is looking to build a factory in Europe rather than importing from China shows that local manufacturing still has an advantage.

Only as long as China isn't yet in a position to dictate zero import duties. I guess they soon will be.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#113

Post by slightwinder »

ThorsBane wrote: post #96
jonp888 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is about HackerNews and the obesession with the decision to remove Nuclear Power, which was only a minority component at it's peak, from the German energy mix, as somehow being the dominant factor in the entire German society and economy? A while back someone unironically described Germany's nuclear power policy as "the single most catastrophic decision ever made by any government in peacetime".

The French regret their decisions on this front. It took a war for them to realize their huge mistake regarding energy independence. Germany is repeating the same mistake because of pride. If there are still talks about needing to use fossil fuels to bridge the gap introduced by eliminating nuclear, then eliminating nuclear was clearly the wrong move. The reactors should be maintained, upgraded, and worked on so that…

Fossils are not used to bridge the elimination of nuclear, that's already done by renewables. Fossils are used for industry and heat, where nuclear never added anything in the first place. And while technically it's possible to use the heat from nuclear plants to replace the heat-usage from fossils, the German plants were not designed for this, and probably not even in useful locations for this. AFAIK for using heat of plants, they need to be located near the places there it's used. And I kinda doubt many people would like to build nuclear plant in big cities.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#114

Post by mistrial9 »

politician wrote: post #89
mistrial9 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is called "hopium" one-liner.. look at the demographics.. twelve billionaires and 2.6 million adults having trouble paying monthly bills in my US West coastal area. Asset bubbles notably residential housing. capital-flight..

There is a trend that some people lean heavily on government intervention to solve their problems, rather than exercising personal initiative. This dependence can exacerbate issues in densely populated regions, where high living costs, limited housing, and food security concerns are rampant, despite surprisingly low out-migration rates. However, alternatives are readily available. Inland areas beyond the coastlines o…

> some people lean heavily on government intervention to solve their problems

this lecture is better pointed at the naive.. look at system rules in place, benefiting "stall" politics and high tax on labor, local govt zoning, and access to capital projects. You explain to me how "Noah's Bagels" makes multi-hundred franchise with high-end remodelling, to sell bagels. A person "exercising personal initiative" goes out of business in less than half a year! Also construction contractors..

hollow platitudes work when the system is flush.. dont be surprised to get serious pushback with that

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#115

Post by mytailorisrich »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #88
toddmorey wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed that Europe & US manufacturers will lose Chinese domestic market. Any data to show Chinese EVs taking over Europe though? Haven’t seen that happening.

Most Tesla's sold in Europe have been Chinese made. That'll change as their Brandenburg plant ramps up. Volvo, MG4 and Polestar are Chinese owned and mostly manufactured in China.

BYD has also a deal with Tesla to supply batteries for Tesla's Berlin factory.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#116

Post by apexalpha »

modernpink wrote: post #65

China is outcompeting Germany as a manufacturer of high value goods, particularly cars [1][2]. Last year it overtook Germany as the second biggest car exporter. In the first three months of this year, China has surpassed Japan to become the world's top car exporter for the first time. This is due to its strength in EVs (while Germany's strength is in ICEs). Volkswagen holds a 2% share of the Chinese EV market while t…

The Chinese are doing great but for now I think about 60% of Chinese EV exports are Tesla's produced in Shanghai.

While I'm sure the actual Chinese brands will catchup the German are also not sitting still. VW is going strong on EVs and other brands are not far behind.

If we look at the issues Tesla has with quality control the Germans are still coming from a position of strength, even if they are ICE specialists.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#117

Post by notdang »

modernpink wrote: post #65

China is outcompeting Germany as a manufacturer of high value goods, particularly cars [1][2]. Last year it overtook Germany as the second biggest car exporter. In the first three months of this year, China has surpassed Japan to become the world's top car exporter for the first time. This is due to its strength in EVs (while Germany's strength is in ICEs). Volkswagen holds a 2% share of the Chinese EV market while t…

Not sure about Germany, but in my country of 120mln people I don't see many EVs, but I see a lot of Chinese ICE cars lately, those cars are good enough and with the latest cars price increase, a lot of people prefer them over the Japanese/US/EU manufactures

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#118

Post by sofixa »

lokar wrote: post #108
malka wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How the f can you have such a big mortgage, with a variable interest rate, and sleep at night ? I'm french, and everyone I know has a fixed interest rate. dont know if it is mandatory, but God, I am so glad that my interest rate will never spike.

Cheap 30y fixed rate home loans are an American thing. The federal government subsidizes them.

You're literally responding to a person in France with a fixed rate home loan (not mortgage, the housing isn't direct collateral for the loan). 30y is a bit on the long side, "traditional" is 20-25 years though.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#120

Post by rsync »

KptMarchewa wrote: post #72
malka wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How the f can you have such a big mortgage, with a variable interest rate, and sleep at night ? I'm french, and everyone I know has a fixed interest rate. dont know if it is mandatory, but God, I am so glad that my interest rate will never spike.

In 5 years you should have large portion of principal paid off so this would not matter. Average 30 year mortgage is paid off in 11 years.

In recent decades Swiss and Nordic societies have dealt with rising home values with 50 year mortgages and interest only products that are barely recognizable to US home buyers.

Many Swiss have fairly dangerous interest rate exposure (to the SNB) based on the assumption that it will continue selling francs to keep exchange rates more competitive, etc.

That will be true … until it isn’t…

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