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Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

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Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#111

Post by TheDudeMan »

valine wrote: post #39
TheDudeMan wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we'll have full-blown AGI before fusion and before world-changing levels of quantum computing. Which is to say, we won't be around to see fusion and world-changing quantum :( But there's still time for robo-taxis!

Or, more optimistically, AGI will accelerate scientific progress and we will have fusion, quantum computers, and self driving cars shortly after. If AIs had the tendency to recursively devour worlds you would expect at least one alien AI to have conquered our galaxy by now. But the sky is quiet, so either we are the very first species to get this far, or there’s a natural ceiling to the pace of technological progress…

They probably can't overcome the universal speed limit. Space is big.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#112

Post by circuit10 »

HKH2 wrote: post #82
space_fountain wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes that obvious to you? What seems uncomputable about human intelligence?

Despite our best efforts, we are deeply irrational. Our thinking is based on instinct, not on core principles; it's a top-down approach driven by feelings.

Why is instinct not computable? That seems way easier to compute than rational thinking based on principles, it's just "if this, do that" and machine learning should be able to do that easily

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#113

Post by FredPret »

HKH2 wrote: post #82
space_fountain wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes that obvious to you? What seems uncomputable about human intelligence?

Despite our best efforts, we are deeply irrational. Our thinking is based on instinct, not on core principles; it's a top-down approach driven by feelings.

Everything in the universe must by definition be rational. Chemical reactions always happen a certain way, physics always works a certain way, numbers add up the same every time.

If something seems irrational, that's because there are rational things layered on top of one another in a way that creates a misapprehension in a partially-informed observer.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#114

Post by IIAOPSW »

PheonixPharts wrote: post #41

As someone who has worked in the field of AI/ML for quite awhile now, the problem with current AGI predictions is ML hasn't done anything new since the 80s (or arguably earlier). At the end of the day all ML is using gradient descent to do some sort of non-linear projection of the data on to a latent space, then doing some relatively simple math in this latent space to perform some task. Personally I think the limits…

THANK YOU

You've phrased the skeptic-not-contrarian case perfectly and succinctly.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#115

Post by danielbln »

wg0 wrote: post #52
xbmcuser wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get all the negativity unlike most humans LLM can be made to discard bad or incorrect data. Quickly transition to new ways of doing something. A human spending all their life in a room in front of the computer would not can not go through all the millions of scientific papers and journals. They would not look at unlimited amount of code or go through all the past and present law of every country . No human is…

Ask any LLM about the cheese inventors in far East china. It'll make something up very plausible. Then all you have to do is to dig through libraries and historic records to verify that this all really is true and is really rooted in reality.

That's why you are better served asking LLMs for factual information when they are connected to tools like search. ChatGPT with search enabled, Bing.chat or https://www.phind.com/ will give you sourced and much more reliable output.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#116

Post by IIAOPSW »

HKH2 wrote: post #82
space_fountain wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes that obvious to you? What seems uncomputable about human intelligence?

Despite our best efforts, we are deeply irrational. Our thinking is based on instinct, not on core principles; it's a top-down approach driven by feelings.

Instincts are evolved and have a rational basis, just not one your consciously privy to.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#117

Post by FredPret »

russelldjimmy wrote: post #103
HKH2 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Despite our best efforts, we are deeply irrational. Our thinking is based on instinct, not on core principles; it's a top-down approach driven by feelings.

Off topic - a pet peeve of mine is seeing humans termed as “irrational”. Please forgive my rant, as it is not personally targeted at you. We only seem “irrational” when we are talking about a narrow view of “rationality”, i.e., as defined by the cold hard logic of machines. We do not question why we have this definition of rationality. Our “irrationality” simply seems so because we have not bothered to understand the…

Absolutely on point. I would argue that irrationality isn't even possible. If person A thinks or behaves "irrationally" according to person B, there is simply a difference in perception between the two. A large percentage of those perceptions are created inside one's own mind which may or may not be aligned with the rest of the universe.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#118

Post by bsaul »

PheonixPharts wrote: post #41

As someone who has worked in the field of AI/ML for quite awhile now, the problem with current AGI predictions is ML hasn't done anything new since the 80s (or arguably earlier). At the end of the day all ML is using gradient descent to do some sort of non-linear projection of the data on to a latent space, then doing some relatively simple math in this latent space to perform some task. Personally I think the limits…

« I don't believe we've seen any evidence of this. »

I think chatgpt did show proof of what was considered at least until very recently « intelligence ». aka: understand enough about context and concepts to provide relevant answers to very complex and open questions.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#120

Post by FredPret »

garbagecoder wrote: post #109
pillefitz wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean silicon-based hardware? What role does relativity play here?

If all your transistors update instantly at any distance, you have less of a problem, but you still have one.

You don't have to simulate in real-time
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