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I wish GPT4 had never happened

chaudhry.notion.site

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Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#111

Post by SideQuark »

> GPT4 gave the correct answer in 1/10th the time it would take Priya and cost a lot less.

So now Priya can produce far more output using GPT4 as a skilled operator, making the product she provides cheaper for others to build upon, likely expanding the market for such goods, and (as so often happens in history) resulting in more, not less, people employed.

We didn't end up with billions of jobs despite automation and invention by having people idly sit by when they could learn new tools.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#112

Post by diatone »

hparadiz wrote: post #93

I asked GPT4 to write me a simple document. Took like 9 tries and I had to proof read it and make adjustments. And that's with a simple paragraph in a written language. Forget about doing the header and the footer properly. It's silly that I have to spell it out on HN of all places. Writing code is much more complex. There's a reason we call the job "Software Engineer". GPT doesn't know what it doesn't know. It doesn…

Maybe what you’ll see is a bigger distance between modes of the salary distribution for software engineers.

Top end salaries for language model fluent high performers… and the rest.

I know I’m simplifying and that there are many other factors at play in salaries, but my point is that language models are changing the cost structure of knowledge work. That is also the point of TFA.

My advice: critically assess the cost structure of your job, and which parts neural networks will commodify. Then reposition yourself accordingly.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#113

Post by eropple »

theusus wrote: post #14
theusus wrote: post #8

This is a really pessimistic and shallow article. Who will prompt the AI for code? Manager? Also, you mentioned it gave wrong result at first. How did you know? Because you know how to code. As mentioned in other comment she should learn more about programming so she can become indispensible.

Also, the article is classical fallacy https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/appeal-to-emotion

"I feel X and am representing my feelings in a blog post." "Well that's a fallacy!"

This is a deeply, deeply inhumane way to parse the world and the feelings of other people.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#114

Post by tap-snap-or-nap »

13years wrote: post #57

We still don't have any real understanding of how society adapts to this technology evolution. It is different than all prior technological disruptions as it has no period of adaption and stabilization to follow. It is continuous and accelerating. AI is unique in that it is essentially a skill/technology replication machine. What this means in reality is somewhat like ... "Climbing the skill ladder is going to look m…

Nobody has even begun to address it on a political level, which by default implies that it is not going to be pleasant.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#115

Post by wokwokwok »

Gud wrote: post #99
netbioserror wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a profoundly naive opinion. Most people find meaning, fulfillment, even contentment in working, especially when the problems are engaging and the solutions produce value. Many people claim their lives would be better if they never had to work, but they are bullshitting themselves with childhood naivete. Not working is a sucking void of boredom, nihilism, hedonism, and despair. I've been through some of that befo…

You can be working without it being your only source of income. If everybody was given let’s say ten million dollars in capital (and endless social security), those who wanted could work. The rest of us wouldn’t mind letting the machines do the work.

By whom?

...and what will happen when every single person goes and tries to buy a 50" TV? Hm? Did we suddenly invent a magical TV making machine?

Come on... this is Real Life, not Magical Fairy Land.

We're not talking about a magical cornucopia that generates an endless amount of physical goods that can be used to accommodate the needs of every person.

We're very specifically talking here about technological shift that will eliminate a large pool of skilled jobs.

People will still need jobs, or they will become homeless / starve / have to leave the country.

AI is not going to feed the world any time soon.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#116

Post by tap-snap-or-nap »

danielrpa wrote: post #73
Aaargh20318 wrote: post #29

The big oversight here is that Priya does not want a job , what Priya wants is an income . The point of life is not working, the point of life is to enjoy it. We should strive to eliminate as many jobs as we possibly can, the less we have to work the better it is. To make this possible we need to find a way to a new system that doesn't directly link labour with income .

Jobs often make people feel useful. While many can be the happy unemployed person playing Counterstrike 24/7, many others need some sort of occupation for self-realization. This is actually a common problem, which can even became a major psychological issue, with people entering retirement. Maybe one day we can live in a world where machines are doing all the work and there are fulfilling hobbies for everybody, but I…

Anyone who has been unemployed may know how badly it affects a persons self-worth.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#117

Post by eropple »

turnsout wrote: post #103
Robotbeat wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All small businesses are not pure profit maximizers. Anyway even if they were, there’s MORE money to be made by empowering employees to use powerful tools which can increase revenues and profits much more than just firing. Doing so generates goodwill which improves employee effectiveness and drive.

This! If you can 10X an employee, the obvious play is to retain all ten employees and get 10X widget output. Yes, you could fire nine people to retain 1X output—but your competition also has access to LLMs, and may choose the former option. Can you compete?

> If you can 10X an employee, the obvious play is to retain all ten employees and get 10X widget output.

Have you ever run a business that employed other people and relied on operational income rather than venture capital to function?

Because this "obvious play" is a screaming red flag for misunderstanding the fundamentals of how business works when money isn't free and speculative.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#118

Post by AeiumNE »

Gud wrote: post #99
netbioserror wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a profoundly naive opinion. Most people find meaning, fulfillment, even contentment in working, especially when the problems are engaging and the solutions produce value. Many people claim their lives would be better if they never had to work, but they are bullshitting themselves with childhood naivete. Not working is a sucking void of boredom, nihilism, hedonism, and despair. I've been through some of that befo…

You can be working without it being your only source of income. If everybody was given let’s say ten million dollars in capital (and endless social security), those who wanted could work. The rest of us wouldn’t mind letting the machines do the work.

Sadly, one of the lessons of Covid Era I think is I think like this kind of windfall would just destroy everyone spending discipline, and then prices would just inflate correspondingly.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#119

Post by efficientsticks »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #72
Aaargh20318 wrote: post #29

The big oversight here is that Priya does not want a job , what Priya wants is an income . The point of life is not working, the point of life is to enjoy it. We should strive to eliminate as many jobs as we possibly can, the less we have to work the better it is. To make this possible we need to find a way to a new system that doesn't directly link labour with income .

> doesn't directly link labour with income Who in their right mind would work if they can get free income, even if small, without having a disability or similar disqualifier? Right now, we are in a worker shortage, and it’s going to get worse as retirements continue. Separating labor from work would cripple living standards and demoralize productive workers.

Lots of people prefer comfort above and beyond the necessity: private cars instead of bus, takeaway instead of home cooked meals, country homes instead of small city apartments.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#120

Post by ChatGTP »

sorokod wrote: post #23

There may be new jobs replacing those that have been made irrelevant by the advent of AI but Priyas and possibly some readers of this thread will nor be able to switch between them. Consider a programmer that reports a productivity increase of 50% due to AI - a question the company will be asking itself is can we get rid of 50% of our programmers?

Ai researchers are susceptible too. Sam Altman and Ilya will have their day as well.
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