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Another Russian spacecraft at ISS has a coolant leak

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Re: Another Russian spacecraft at ISS has a coolant leak

#111

Post by dotnet00 »

thriftwy wrote: post #106
dotnet00 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'last 60 years' doesn't really mean much when it's been obvious in the past 2 decades or so that their capabilities have been deteriorating rapidly compared to what they once were. They haven't sent an interplanetary science mission in decades, their next-generation vehicles are constantly delayed or unreliable, Nauka was an entire 12 years behind schedule and so on. Now on top of that, they're under heavy sanctions…

> which is also why Ukraine punched above its weight in the space sector In 1991 it was expected that independent Ukraine, a 52 million strong country, will basically be the next Spain. What did it punch in the space sector in the last 30 years? They did indeed inherit a huge chunk of USSR industry and science and nothing went out of it.

Ukraine supplied engines for Vega's upper stage, co-developed the Antares and half of Firefly Aerospace's operations were in Ukraine office before the US forced them to divest from there. Considering that only a few months later Firefly would reach orbit, I think it reflects well on the capabilities Ukraine also must've had relative to their status as the poorest country in Europe.

Re: Another Russian spacecraft at ISS has a coolant leak

#112

Post by latchkey »

wheelerof4te wrote: post #78
ArnoVW wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No longer supplying means that they get geopolitical flack for 'using hydrocarbons as a weapon'. And will get dragged before the courts for not honoring their long term contracts. So blowing the pipeline up is the better alternative.

A famous journalist, American no less, does not agree with you. Also, as soon as that pipeline got blown up, EU got forced to take much more expensive American liquid gas. It's not hard to believe in and it makes 100x more sense than Putin blowing it up for funzies.

Ever wondered why they published that piece on substack and not somewhere else?

Re: Another Russian spacecraft at ISS has a coolant leak

#113

Post by [deleted] »

samwillis wrote: post #10
openplatypus wrote: post #3

Are we at the point we should start suspecting sabotage? Or is this just usual Russian incompetence? This maybe news cycle bias, but since the Ukraine war, and threat of Russian pulling out of ISS program, these malfunctions have been more visible. Is anyone tracking these and similar incidents publicly?

> is this just usual Russian incompetence? I don't think there is an impression of that or really ever has been. Russia has successfully launched humans into space more regularly and at a lower cost than the US for the last 60 years. (Well until the last few years) I think it's more likely that this is just an occurrence of something akin to the birthday paradox and sometimes things just happen. It's the narrative du…

[deleted]

Re: Another Russian spacecraft at ISS has a coolant leak

#114

Post by bryananderson »

wheelerof4te wrote: post #64
bandyaboot wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know if you guys are being deliberately obtuse with stuff or what, but the Nordstream pipeline can deliver gas to Germany—that’s it. If circumstances change such that Russia no longer wants to deliver gas to Germany, the pipeline has no value to them. It doesn’t matter that it’s theirs. It’s not like they can use it for something else.

Russia could just stop the flow of gas without blowing the pipeline up. They had Zero reasons to blow it up and very good reasons to keep it alive if and when the Germans wanted that gas again. The only beneficiary of the pipeline going bust are the USA.

This only holds if you think of Russia as a single abstract actor with its own interests. Instead Russia, like every country, has individual decision-makers with their own personal interests.

The “Russia did it” argument for Nord Stream is about internal politics. Putin’s war ruined the lifestyles of his elites, who spent most of their time in mansions and yachts in the West. All of that is gone now. It’s tempting for those elites to want to find a way to turn back the clock to February 23, 2022, get the gas money flowing again, and get back to the family villa in the Amalfi Coast. Like Cortes burning the ships to remove the temptation to mutiny, blowing up Nord Stream lets Putin close off this avenue.

Truth is you can tell a plausible story for a lot of actors to do it. But I lean toward the Russia hypothesis because they had less to lose if they got caught.

The US has spent immense political and literal capital on building a coalition to sanction Russia, which could all be undone if it got caught committing an act of war against Germany (no, phone spying is not the same, everyone does that to everyone). Besides, the benefits for the US are hazy, since Germany did not appear open to ever reactivating the pipelines. Why take such a huge risk to prevent something that didn’t appear likely to ever happen, let alone any time soon?

But if it was Russia, what is Germany gonna do to Russia that it’s not already doing? Maybe it would’ve sped up tank deliveries by a few months if they’d caught Russia red-handed, but tanks still happened eventually.

Re: Another Russian spacecraft at ISS has a coolant leak

#115

Post by CamperBob2 »

bilqis wrote: post #107
bandyaboot wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know if you guys are being deliberately obtuse with stuff or what, but the Nordstream pipeline can deliver gas to Germany—that’s it. If circumstances change such that Russia no longer wants to deliver gas to Germany, the pipeline has no value to them. It doesn’t matter that it’s theirs. It’s not like they can use it for something else.

Both countries also heavily invested in Nordstream-2, and there were good economical reasons for that. Current sanctions are temporary, as well as this war, and if it haven’t been blown up, it would start working again in no time.

Once the dust settles, it will take less time to fix the pipeline than to repair Russia's international standing. That's true even if the pipeline is unsalvageable, because Russia certainly is.

The sanctions aren't going away until Putin is replaced by someone sane. I don't expect that to happen anytime soon, do you?

Re: Another Russian spacecraft at ISS has a coolant leak

#116

Post by bryananderson »

samwillis wrote: post #10
openplatypus wrote: post #3

Are we at the point we should start suspecting sabotage? Or is this just usual Russian incompetence? This maybe news cycle bias, but since the Ukraine war, and threat of Russian pulling out of ISS program, these malfunctions have been more visible. Is anyone tracking these and similar incidents publicly?

> is this just usual Russian incompetence? I don't think there is an impression of that or really ever has been. Russia has successfully launched humans into space more regularly and at a lower cost than the US for the last 60 years. (Well until the last few years) I think it's more likely that this is just an occurrence of something akin to the birthday paradox and sometimes things just happen. It's the narrative du…

This is outdated, unfortunately. The Russian space program has suffered from immense brain-drain, budget cuts, and corruption, all of which have worn it down over 30 years and resulted in vastly reduced quality control.

In the past handful of years, on ISS alone, there have been: * Progress coolant leak * Soyuz coolant leak * Nauka module rogue thruster sending entire station spinning out of control * Soyuz hull leak * Launch failure with two crew aboard * Various low-grade problems on older modules especially Zvezda

I might be forgetting something, that’s just off the top of my head. No, this amount of serious issues is not normal “space is hard” stuff, and nowhere near as many problems have happened with any of the other ISS partner countries.

This is not to mention a steady rise in unscrewed launch failures, especially for Proton but also for Soyuz. Russia was pissing away its dominant position in commercial launch long before sanctions.

The once-great Soviet space program is dying with the world’s longest whimper.

Re: Another Russian spacecraft at ISS has a coolant leak

#117

Post by philwelch »

wheelerof4te wrote: post #105
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But ukraine is unable to do it by themselves, and norway probably to. On the other hand, USA (biden) literally said that they will stop the nord streams on tv.

[flagged]

If the US did blow the pipeline I would be impressed and fully supportive of the decision. I just think Biden lacks the courage to authorize such an action. It’s possible that it was done behind his back, since I very much doubt Biden himself is in control of things to any real extent.

Re: Another Russian spacecraft at ISS has a coolant leak

#118

Post by willcipriano »

bandyaboot wrote: post #84
willcipriano wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's easier to call your enemies insane than to admit you don't understand their motivation.

Humans routinely prioritize retribution over rationality.

That goes for our guys too.

Re: Another Russian spacecraft at ISS has a coolant leak

#119

Post by wheelerof4te »

philwelch wrote: post #117
wheelerof4te wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

If the US did blow the pipeline I would be impressed and fully supportive of the decision. I just think Biden lacks the courage to authorize such an action. It’s possible that it was done behind his back, since I very much doubt Biden himself is in control of things to any real extent.

"If the US did blow the pipeline I would be impressed and fully supportive of the decision."

Then you are also fully supportive of starting (more like escalating, at this point) a WWIII. I hope you never find about the true cost of such a decision, and of war in general.

But seeing how you support this act of war, don't be surprised when one day it comes knocking at your door.

Re: Another Russian spacecraft at ISS has a coolant leak

#120

Post by [deleted] »

openplatypus wrote: post #3

Are we at the point we should start suspecting sabotage? Or is this just usual Russian incompetence? This maybe news cycle bias, but since the Ukraine war, and threat of Russian pulling out of ISS program, these malfunctions have been more visible. Is anyone tracking these and similar incidents publicly?

[deleted]
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