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Thoughts about Twitter

nolancaudill.com

111–120 of 235 posts

Re: Thoughts about Twitter

#111
OP makes it sound as if Twitter were a good platform for public discourse - it’s not. It’s a cesspool of indignation, racism, faux wokeness (white-knighting to feel superior over others) etc.

If you don’t have a thick skin like Musk, you must self-censor yourself pretty heavily to avoid backlash and sometimes humiliation. Just liking a controversial tweet or following a problematic account can get you on the bad side of people.

I‘m not even sure I‘d consider Twitter worth saving.

Re: Thoughts about Twitter

#112

If there was some way to wager my own money that this blog post will age poorly, I would. One of my hobby horses is pointing out people that bend themselves in knots predicting that Uber will fail tomorrow (still waiting!) because they, personally, _don't_ _like_ Uber. There's a similar phenomenon with Elon Musk. Behold, Elon Musk, the guy who runs a car company and a space rocket company, will be completely stymied…

> One of my hobby horses is pointing out people that bend themselves in knots predicting that Uber will fail tomorrow (still waiting!) because they, personally, _don't_ _like_ Uber.

Just 3 days ago, Uber announced another quarterly loss of over $1 billion. They are failing, if you judge by profit and loss.

Re: Thoughts about Twitter

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but complex systems are always changing and in some ways in a constant process of degrading. A lot of the biggest companies are growing exponentially faster than their processes and it ends up being nearly impossible for the tooling and supporting software to keep up. At that scale all the automation software you buy off the shelf won't scale with you. With over a billion dollars a year in surplus infrastructure…

At Amazon, near Black Friday and Prime Day, there are company wide deployment freezes, where no one is allowed to push to prod. When I was oncall for my team, I found there were less pages, less issues, and the system was generally more stable. Entropy, leading to availability problems, grows with rate of production changes. If no one touches the code, my guess is the system is more stable rather than less.

I think Uber published a study about this. Deployments and changes cause most issues.

Re: Thoughts about Twitter

#115
post #38

> They were dumped unceremoniously, the result of the addled whims of a walking meme How is that different from Stripe layoffs from yesterday? I believe Stripe employees also didn't know that they will be laid off, and they got similar compensation to what Twitter employees got.

Stripe gave:

  - Pay until at least February 21, 2023  
  - 2022 annual bonuses even if you're not around at bonus time  
  - Pay for unused time off  
  - Six months of healthcare  
  - Accelerated stock-option vesting  
  - Career support   
  - Immigration services support for visa holders
That's public, since Stripe published the relevant email.

Twitter didn't make their terms public (there's a difference), but reports are:

  - Pay for 60 days (January 3rd, 2023)   
  - One additional month of severance if you sign a release
Those two packages are not similar.

Note that Musk's merger agreement included some other things:

  - Performance bonus paid out at target  
  - Cash contribution for healthcare  
  - Equity vesting accelerated by three months
But so far I haven't heard anyone saying they got those. We'll see.

Re: Thoughts about Twitter

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Advertising is a human problem. I think Elon is already feeling the blowback from immediately misunderstanding it based on this tweet[1]. It's going to be interesting to see how he intends on making up that $5b/year. [1] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1588538640401018880

I'd be careful about that tweet. It is clear that Tesla competitors (GM, VW) stop funding Musk, but aside from that most big advertisers likely have longer running contracts, so immediate impact is unlikely. By such a statement Musk can however argue that the RIFs are "required"

I work in advertising.

It is very typical for big advertisers to have a change of ownership exit clause. It is also very typical for these contracts to only establish the unit rate, but without a required minimum spend amount.

The bigger nail in the coffin is IPG recommending their clients pull out; they probably represent a third of F500 ad spend. I would not be surprised if the other three firms in the big four are recommending the same. It's not just car brands.

edit: it'll also be interesting to see if other social media sites (primarily Facebook, Reddit, Snap, or TikTok) or advertising platforms (Google) retaliate against Tesla now that Elon owns a direct competitor. Tesla enjoys quite a lot of "free" word of mouth advertising on their platforms, and those platforms all have the means to bury positive sentiment and/or amplify negative sentiment towards Tesla.

Re: Thoughts about Twitter

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correction - HE forced himself to buy it by signing a binding contract to buy it.

No. Not even semantically correct. If he didn't want to do something and the other party in the negotiation used the legal system to make him do it he was forced by someone else to do it. Anyway, it's beside the point. Elon OWNS twitter. Do you all understand what ownership means? Like how you own a phone? If he wants to smash his new toy into the ground and break it that's his prerogative. Employees need to stop del…

This isn't how it works. He wanted to buy Twitter and in a typically impulsive Musk fashion, he signed a contract and waived due diligence. Once you sign a contract you can't just back out of it and act like it's not your fault when they force you to abide by your word.

And he does own Twitter, yes. Everyone is just laughing at him spending billions of dollars to destroy something due to a problem he created. It just also sucks for the people involved being hurt by a billionaires tantrum.

Re: Thoughts about Twitter

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Creating the giga factories and making space x a success were as much a technical success as a human success. At this scale in the game, everything is. We can be critical of his actions, but at this point, assuming incompetence is foolish.

No, it's not. Essentializing incompetence, implying that he's incompetent at everything, that's foolish. But the supposition that he's incapable of being incompetent at Twitter because of his successes elsewhere has already been disproven.

It's possibly not that foolish depending on how hard you believe the Peter Principle applies to billionaires. Musk didn't start Tesla, he swooped in and meddled exactly like Twitter, because he had extra money and wanted to swing it around. Is picking a good bet, one that survives your meddling, a skill or just luck? It's possible to believe the Peter Principle applies and it was entirely luck.

Re: Thoughts about Twitter

#120

As a relatively disinterested observer (don’t tweet, don’t own a Tesla, don’t feel particularly strongly about Mr Musk), I’ve found the media/commentariat reversals of position on this funny. Musk’s initial Twitter takeover talk was met with general opprobrium, to put it mildly. I must have read more than one take that it was a threat to democracy itself. Then, after a stock market downturn, and when the Twitter acqu…

>Then, after a stock market downturn, and when the Twitter acquisition looked more like an impulsive decision that Musk might regret, the prevailing mood was gleeful. He was stuck with a white elephant. Schadenfreude. And since he clearly no longer wanted it, the consensus now he was legally and morally obligated to buy. Twitter itself demanded it. They weren’t going to let him weasel out of that one. Now that he seems to have accepted his obligation and the sale has gone through, we’re back to opprobrium.

Could be part of a pump of the stock. Something he's done in the past, see FSD,coast to coast trip with no driver, battery swaps, the Cybertruck roadster and Semi, whatever that robot was,4680 batteries..........

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