300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast • Hacker News Board

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#111

Post by Fatnino » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 6:08 AM UTC

anyfoo wrote: post #57

anyfoo wrote: post #55

Growing up in Germany, before I moved to the Bay Area, I was wondering why weather apps and widgets were so prolific. Sure, knowing the forecast for next weekend was nice, but for anything closer I'd just get out of bed and look out of the window. That would pretty much tell me what weather it is, and it would usually change just slowly over a few days or so. Then I moved to the Bay Area, and weather does not only ch…

Another anecdote: In the South of Germany at least, long stretches of sunny days are often followed by sudden thunderstorms with equally sudden bursts of rain. That "fact" had been so deeply ingrained in me that it was subconscious. You'd have a careful feeling if it was hot for too long, suddenly you might find yourself running for the next awning to escape the torrential rain. Sunny weather was a bit like building…

The climate did change. Now it hardly rains in the winter either.

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#112

Post by sailor1234 » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 10:01 AM UTC

Love the app. The details that the map is displaying is really important if you want to know the forecast for a specific location, which is really important if you're on the sea or in the air. Looking forward to have the forecast for even more locations around the world

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#113

Post by tiagod » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 10:31 AM UTC

anyfoo wrote: post #55

Growing up in Germany, before I moved to the Bay Area, I was wondering why weather apps and widgets were so prolific. Sure, knowing the forecast for next weekend was nice, but for anything closer I'd just get out of bed and look out of the window. That would pretty much tell me what weather it is, and it would usually change just slowly over a few days or so. Then I moved to the Bay Area, and weather does not only ch…

My hometown is close to Portugal's westernmost tip, about 30km from Lisbon. Its not uncommon to see differences over 10C between the two, and the car ride will many times include rain or fog only in a specific spot of the highway, half way.

Even if you stay right next to the ocean/river during the whole trip by avoiding the highway you'll notice a big difference most days.

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#114

Post by tiagod » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 10:33 AM UTC

carabiner wrote: post #60

londons_explore wrote: post #58

Weather forecasts are so hard for a user to evaluate... Are you going to check it every day and remember how many days it was right or wrong? Please can weather providers just publish a headline statistic of "Our rain/no rain one day ahead forecast is right 85% of the time. That is better than NOAA (80%), Met Office (72%) and weather.com (65%)."

This is kind of the purpose of the "50% chance of rain" things. The process is called calibration and is usually done with linear regression, and it means that in historical forecasts , the actual outcome was rain 50% of the time. Surface precip is notoriously hard to predict, so this is what we've got right now.

Would be nice to have some extra error information. Like a probability for a number of mm precipitation buckets.

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#115

Post by prottog » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 1:31 PM UTC

anyfoo wrote: post #57

anyfoo wrote: post #55

Growing up in Germany, before I moved to the Bay Area, I was wondering why weather apps and widgets were so prolific. Sure, knowing the forecast for next weekend was nice, but for anything closer I'd just get out of bed and look out of the window. That would pretty much tell me what weather it is, and it would usually change just slowly over a few days or so. Then I moved to the Bay Area, and weather does not only ch…

Another anecdote: In the South of Germany at least, long stretches of sunny days are often followed by sudden thunderstorms with equally sudden bursts of rain. That "fact" had been so deeply ingrained in me that it was subconscious. You'd have a careful feeling if it was hot for too long, suddenly you might find yourself running for the next awning to escape the torrential rain. Sunny weather was a bit like building…

> It basically rains in winter, and does not rain in summer. Like, at all.

You needn't have moved so far from southern Germany to experience that! Lack of rain in the summer is a defining characteristic of the Mediterranean climate. You would have experienced the same a few hundred miles south. :-)

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#116

Post by _tom_ » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 8:16 PM UTC

Displays nothing but garbage on mac/firefox.

I did briefly see something that looked like a map, but then it smeared into an abstract art looking blob.

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#117

Post by _yb2s » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 8:43 PM UTC

johmathe wrote: post #88

_yb2s wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, as a person with experience sailing on the Bay, this model immediately seems unusually accurate. It shows, for example, the Angel Island wind shadow moving around correctly as it does during the day, which I have never seen in another model. Could anyone with more understanding of meteorology (or OP) please explain what is different about this model vs say the ECMWF model that you can see in apps like Windy, th…

Thanks for the feedback :) The highest resolution models you can currently find on windy is around 3x3 km (HRRR) and this resolution is unfortunately too big to capture fine terrain and water features. 300x300 gives you 100 times more data points to work with.

How often are you planning to re-run this model? Can I convince you to rerun it before this weekend? I'm in a situation to get you a lot of new followers/users if I had a new model for Sat/Sun.

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#118

Post by johmathe » Tue, Nov 01, 2022, 12:32 AM UTC

_yb2s wrote: post #117

johmathe wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the feedback :) The highest resolution models you can currently find on windy is around 3x3 km (HRRR) and this resolution is unfortunately too big to capture fine terrain and water features. 300x300 gives you 100 times more data points to work with.

How often are you planning to re-run this model? Can I convince you to rerun it before this weekend? I'm in a situation to get you a lot of new followers/users if I had a new model for Sat/Sun.

The model is currently ran every day. Hope you were able to use it for this weekend :)

Re: 300 meters resolution SF Bay Area Forecast

#119

Post by bombela » Sat, Nov 05, 2022, 6:59 PM UTC

johmathe wrote: post #106

bombela wrote: post #15

How do you switch to normal (for 97% of humans) units for temperature and wind?

We will be adding the Celsius switch shortly. We started with F since we expected most users of the forecast to be in the bay area but it is great to see interest from non Fahrenheit users :)

The bay area is probably the place with the fewest native users of Fahrenheit in the whole USA.

All those US customary units should never be the default in 2022. It's time to move on people. The whole world and the majority of the industry in the USA share the same system of measure. Let's get the American population there too.