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Pessimism is a barrier to progress

bigthink.com

111–120 of 189 posts

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#111

I have a disagreement with the article's premise. >Pessimism sounds smart. Optimism sounds dumb. [...] There is an “optimism stigma” that is pervasive throughout society. Does it? Is there? I am thinking you associate with and consume from the wrong circles. To me this is not the case. I find full pessimism (nihilism?) disappointing, and often not thinking situations through. I have yet to find a situation where I ha…

I like your take, we need to use proper words for each situation. I agree that full pessimism is a form of nihilism. And for full optimism I think the word is naiveness. Both are extremes that should be avoided. And in any good discussion, you want to hear both the optimist and pessimist takes (the reasonable ones), and plan accordingly.

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#113
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the dumbest take on Climate Change and I can't believe the HN crowd falls for it. Thought Experiment: Say, Bill Gates (and other VIPs) is respected enough that he can convert 5 Skeptics out a 100 Climate Deniers. So, In order for the successful climate actions Bill Gates has to change the minds of say 10,000 leaders in various positions across the world. That means he effectively has to meet 200,000 people ac…

How is he going to "convince 200,000 people in 5 years" if he isn't even willing to fly first class instead of private? He obviously doesn't care, so he's not going to convince anyone.

[deleted]

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My own personal experience is that every single time I try to be positive about changing anything for the better in any way, the vast majority of humans I voice any "optimism" to are hell-bent on beating that "naïvety" out of me. The problem I see is that humanity as a whole has much of what we need to build a Utopia for all, but almost nobody actually wants a better world for anyone let alone for everyone. All the t…

>The problem I see is that humanity as a whole has much of what we need to build a Utopia for all, but almost nobody actually wants a better world for anyone let alone for everyone Care to expand about what this Utopia would look like and how it would work? Where does the resources come from to bring everyone to a first world standard of living?

Utopia, of course, is when everyone behaves exactly as I want them to. ;-)

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#115

My problem with pessimists is that they usually have nothing to offer. There is only so much awareness you can bring to problems while having no solutions. The optimists in society seem like the doers.

Optimists can too easily ignore the potential consequences of their actions chasing success at all costs. We're still in a society where a balance is best. Having a pessimist is great if you don't let them completely stop you.

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#116

Plenty here talking about the definitions of optimism/pessimism and noone mentioning the definition of progress. Blind optimism leads to blind progress. The purpose of pessimism isn't just to stop progress but to question its direction, and the metrics ("kpis" if you will) that define it.

Or, blind optimism leads to effort expended on dead ends. We're sure this will work, no negativity in the dojo, everyone charge ahead! And then it goes nowhere, because warnings were suppressed or ignored.

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#117

> There's an "optimism stigma" that's pervasive throughout society. Funny, I'd say it's quite the opposite, you aren't allowed to say anything negative or you'd be labeled as a "downer". Everything nowadays is "amazing" and "transformative".

My own personal experience is that every single time I try to be positive about changing anything for the better in any way, the vast majority of humans I voice any "optimism" to are hell-bent on beating that "naïvety" out of me. The problem I see is that humanity as a whole has much of what we need to build a Utopia for all, but almost nobody actually wants a better world for anyone let alone for everyone. All the t…

> My own personal experience is that every single time I try to be positive about changing anything for the better in any way, the vast majority of humans I voice any "optimism" to are hell-bent on beating that "naïvety" out of me.

An optimist who insists on driving ahead without understanding the challenge he's taking on will almost always end up being a big problem for everyone.

> The problem I see is that humanity as a whole has much of what we need to build a Utopia for all...

> Perhaps instead of actively trying to find excuses to dissuade "optimists" from even trying, society might be better off trying to teach that supporting good ideas that benefit everyone is a good thing, not bad…

Lenin was an optimist who thought he and his comrades could build a "Utopia for all."

> ...but almost nobody actually wants a better world for anyone let alone for everyone....

> Perhaps instead of actively trying to find excuses to dissuade "optimists" from even trying, society might be better off trying to teach that supporting good ideas that benefit everyone is a good thing, not bad…

Come on. Pretty much everyone wants a better world for everyone, they just want different ones, and that's a difficult problem.

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#118
post #57

This feels like a "terrorist/freedom-fighter" thing and so is effectively saying nothing. Like, Bill Gates accepts climate change is happening, that we should do something to avert the problems, and thinks that we can do that as a species. He thinks that renewables and EVs etc. will all help, but aren't enough and we should look for newer solutions. He has invested in multiple different solutions, presumably because…

https://twitter.com/GatesJets Hard to take Gates seriously on climate change. Imagine everyone was living like this.

I don’t get your hero worship mentality. Talk about pessimism.

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#119
Where one sits on the pessimism-to-optimism scale does likely affect one's personal response to difficulties - the optimist might have a survival advantage over the pessimist, who we suspect would be more likely to give up and wait passively for the end. A related notion is that the devout religious believer will do better in dire straits than the cynical atheist would, which is an example of the 'utilitarian' argument for religion.

I don't know whether this is actually true in practice. Some people get along through sheer cussedness (which some might interpret as pessimism). I suppose the pessimist more often than not finds reality to be more rewarding than expected - i.e. if you expect the worst, anything even moderately better comes as a pleasant surprise. A similar view is "expect nothing from people, then you'll never be disappointed".

Regardless, reality is what it is. The optimist who leaps off a cliff flapping their arms like a bird, visualizing flight, will come to a splattering end. This is called realism, which should probably take precedence over either optimism or pessimism. Here we can answer the question "how do you know it won't work if you don't at least try?" with a one-liner: math and physics, thank you very much.

As far as fossil-fueled global warming over the next few centuries, I imagine human beings will survive it, but historic disruptions are steadily coming on, and the tipping point has come and gone - there's no going back to the relatively stable, very-gradually-cooling regime of the past few thousand years. We'll see a steadily warming planet for the next 100 years at the very least, there's just no way out of it. A rapid transition to renewable energy is being blocked by entrenched fossil fuel interests (and has been for the past 40 years), and the only countries ahead of the curve are the net fossil fuel importers (China in particular), but even they are nowhere near anything like a meaningful reduction in fossil emissions.

Result? Climate outcomes are heading towards the most extreme of the IPCC predictions. All the bubbling optimism in the world won't change that - it's already here.

Re: Pessimism is a barrier to progress

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is amazing and really goes to show the dude, no matter how good his intentions may be, is a hypocrite. One rule for him, different rules for everyone else.

I dislike Gates for the old reasons, and some of the new ones as well. But this basic argument from hypocrisy is applied to a lot of people, and it's a weak case. If someone is using an appreciable fraction of their fortune to decarbonize the grid, and otherwise make industrial civilization sustainable, they can fly private jets as much as they like. Ultimately, carbon in the atmosphere is a simple game of addition.…

On the other hand he could try fly a bit less ?
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