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The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

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Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#111
post #63

>It’s a case of saying that Portugal has been constantly for sale. If in the recent past, large public companies were sold off to Chinese managers who now do whatever they want — like Energias de Portugal (EDP), the main electricity company, which, after making an exorbitant profit in the first semester of the year, they’re now saying that energy prices are going to go up again — now are private assets which are bein…

That explains why they are building one generic luxury apartment block after the other - and hostels, hostels, hostels. It's insane.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#112
post #62

Some Canadian cities responded to this with a foreign buyers tax, notably in Vancouver. Florida has a method for balancing its "snowbird" population to do with foreign buyers. Personally, I think this is the effect of governments themselves no longer believing in nations and borders or a responsibility for them, and simply importing polarized populations of both very rich and very poor people whose effect in concert…

The Portuguese case is quite different, I think. Canada has a well-developed and diversified economy. Portugal needs to import a lot from the world, but has very little to offer in exchange. They found something: their real estate and city center spaces. The country NEEDS this foreign income. It's not a self-sustainable economy and the world won't work for them for free. If the Portuguese want to solve this issue, on…

Portugal should just do what the U.S. and Canada should also do: built more housing: https://slate.com/business/2013/05/exporting-housing-service....

It's not hard! We knew how to build a lot of housing on a particular parcel a hundred years ago.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#113
Related article in the WSJ today about Americans buying European homes due to the favorable exchange rate: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-the-u-s-dollar-surges-americ...

I wonder how this will impact "golden visas." Personally, if moving to Europe, I would be a little concerned about short-term energy insecurity pretty much anywhere except perhaps the Iberian peninsula. I think they'll find a solution, but it'd be hard to make such a big bet on without certainty.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#114

Some Canadian cities responded to this with a foreign buyers tax, notably in Vancouver. Florida has a method for balancing its "snowbird" population to do with foreign buyers. Personally, I think this is the effect of governments themselves no longer believing in nations and borders or a responsibility for them, and simply importing polarized populations of both very rich and very poor people whose effect in concert…

Truly agree.

There are also countries like France which only imported cheap and poor labor. France never tried or even discouraged rich people to settle in the country with punitive taxes (compared to our neighbors and other western world countries). For instance London has (or had) rich Russians/Indians/Pakistani investors who made London their residence, not the case for Paris, foreign real estate owners don't take French permanent residency.

And nowadays, we are left with some politicians who promote economic immigration even when there is no need or deny any form of control on illegal immigration mostly to import voters.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#115

Yes, the situation is dire. I live in Lisbon as a foreigner for more than 12 years now. We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city. Luckily, we have an older contract that cannot be changed as easily as newer ones. I'm not thrilled by the possibility that our landlord might cancel it some day, however, e.g. for relatives to move in. Rents in t…

We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city

Portugal should build more housing, which is a simple, effective solution if the rent is too damn high: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/the-ren....

The nice thing about indoor space is that we can make pretty much as much of it as we'd like.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#116
post #73

Its a global problem that interest rates have been too low for too long. Most Americans dont realize that in most countries, house prices continued to go up through the 08-10 recession, so haven't gone down since the early 90s. Property needs a big global crash.

Thank you for mentioning interest rates. Any time housing comes up on HN, the main factors people bring up are short-term rentals, NIMBYism, and lack of new development. However, if these explanations had any merit, why have home values in Flint, MI increased by 67% since March of 2020?

Flint's population has rapidly declined over the past 40 years and continues to decline (its population is less than half of what it was at its peak), so there's not a population boom driving up demand. Flint is not exactly known as a tourist destination either. And to top off, Flint is most well known for its contaminated drinking water that contains lead. So why on Earth would such a place be experiencing a housing shortage?

The obvious answer is that governments around the world have brought interests rate down to zero, which forces investors to seek out riskier and riskier assets to invest in. Instead of investing in traditionally safe assets like treasuries and bonds, investors now have no choice but to invest in stuff like tech startups, cryptocurrencies, personal loans, mortgage-backed securities, and dilapidated houses in the Midwest.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#117
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure that is a headwind, but it's certainly not impossible to get your government to work for you instead of against you. While there are many examples of hopelessly corrupt, democracy-in-name-only governments, there are also governments that respond to the needs of the majority to keep from getting thrown out in the next elections. Generally, having all these big money foreigners trying to come to your country is a…

As a relatively poor country (for European standards) with, crucially, a lot of debt , it is very difficult to go for massive public spending projects as would be construction of enough public housing to bring it to the aforementioned 20% goal (there are actually proposals to this effect in Parliament), even though this would (1) help control the housing crisis and (2) actually easily turn up a profit in the mid-long…

To your second point, that’s a policy problem. You can tax these golden visa real estate investors at any rate. You can have a different tax rate for nonresidents and an extremely high rate to penalize non-occupancy.

The country might be poor and in debt overall, but somebody is getting rich off this real estate bubble and it is within the government’s power to make them share.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#118
post #7

I hope Portugal won't tackle it like my country, with a cap on rent and other market distortions. I think that only makes it worse. Fun fact: I - as a single - live in a way too big, luxurious and expensive apartment because of this. I rented it, when I was still working for the man and was making a killing. Now I live a much more modest 4-hour-workweek life. It would be better for me to move to an apartment half the…

> I hope Portugal won't tackle it like my country, with a cap on rent and other market distortions. I think that only makes it worse.

That's one of the reasons why portuguese renting market is so bad. There were rent control policies for like 40 years. It has been phased out but the market still has the signs of its damages.

There also other contributing policies and the policies change almost every two years.

I'm one that could invest in the market, to bring more houses to be rent, but I can not risk 150 000 euros buying a house to rent (middle income market) and then having problems evicting with a non-paying renter, being forbidden to increase the rent due a new law or god help me if I need to use the court system to ask for renter damages.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#119
post #76

There’s much truth here, but it isn’t the entire picture. Lisboa and Oporto are hideously overpriced, and it is indeed hard to see how a normal Portuguese earner can afford to live in either. Even Vila Nova de Gaia, which was the “cheap” side of Oporto, is now parlously expensive. This effect has bled along the coast, and many coastal villages now ask €200k for an unmodernised one bedroom house. But… the interior of…

Well the problem is (1) jobs and (2) many people simply don't want to live in a town with 1000 people and nothing to do. (1) Bar agriculture and remote work, there are very few jobs in the interior of the country. I think in this forum we may have a skewed perspective since our sector is by far the one where remote work is most common. But most people simply don't have the option to earn 10x minimum wage from their c…

The issue is that the Government should bring the infrastructure to the outback, as other European countries do. In another hand, I love the almost rustic Alentejo.. I guess having unstable regions like South America, Asia, Middle east and Africa is one factor, among other factors already described in this thread, raising housing prices...

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#120

Some Canadian cities responded to this with a foreign buyers tax, notably in Vancouver. Florida has a method for balancing its "snowbird" population to do with foreign buyers. Personally, I think this is the effect of governments themselves no longer believing in nations and borders or a responsibility for them, and simply importing polarized populations of both very rich and very poor people whose effect in concert…

> Personally, I think this is the effect of governments themselves no longer believing in nations and borders or a responsibility for them, and simply importing polarized populations of both very rich and very poor people

> It's barely right/left at all, it's just nihilistic power as its own end.

These statements are skillfully leaving out "ethno" part of nationalism. Once you add that quite obviously real and active element back, it's very much a left/right difference.

The left's solution to the problems brought about by globalization is to subtly bias the scales of re-industrialization policies toward the domestic labor market - evidenced by things like the battery materials sourcing and assembly location requirements, and income limits of the recently passed EV tax credits.

The right's solution to this has been playing on fears of a purported invasion by non-white citizens from lower income countries. A decade ago that would have been a controversial claim to make about the right, but today's right openly proclaims those ideas.

Portugal's case is interesting because they lived under a nationalist dictatorship that only ended in 1968, so many people alive today remember living under that. In my travel there, I found that many people in the age groups that vote heavily conservatively in the US and UK instead vote democratic left as a result of their lived memories of nationalist dictatorship.

Portugal does need to figure out what else has to offer the world economically in addition to great weather and beautiful cities and countryside, in order to have a better balance of trade, but it's unrealistic to think it can do that while shutting down immigration.

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