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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#111

Post by aidenn0 »

raydiatian wrote: post #70
sonofhans wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Driving is a social problem, not a technical one. It's functionally the same as walking down a crowded sidewalk. The car is just a tool, just an extension of our bodies. We can't build a robot which can walk down a sidewalk without running into people either. The sensor tech and mapping fidelity are red herrings. People drive well because only people are good at predicting human behavior.

Sort of. Your wording actually assumes down to its core that driving is inherently social, when in fact I think it may be only provisionally social. Driving currently “is social” in a few senses, But of course the important (and obvious) one is that it currently involves accounting for human-operated vehicles. Alternatively, an autonomous vehicle operator in a homogenous network full of other autonomous operators has…

This assumes that roads are used exclusively by autonomous vehicles, when our roads are not used exclusively by motor vehicles to begin with.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#112

Post by rootusrootus »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #30
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

Uber bet the company on robotaxis and lost. Tesla is still building very good cars that happen to not be able to drive themselves. Just like every other car. If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money.

> If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money.

They may want to think about that strategy soon. Model 3 is starting to seem dated (not to mention Model S, which is ten years old). There are very competitive alternatives on the market now that have strengths where Tesla is weak, and which are not especially weak in the areas Tesla is strong.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#113

Post by aidenn0 »

gruturo wrote: post #51
akmarinov wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon in 2024: “by 2026 we’ll have actual, real teleportation” Elon in 2026: “by 2028 we’ll have FTL drives” Elon in 2028: “time machine!”

> Elon in 2028: “time machine!” Well, to be fair, he only has to hit _that_ goal - at which point he can go back in time at his leisure and fix all the others. And he could hit even the time machine goal as late as he wants, and it won't matter.

This sounds like solid evidence for the fact that he won't ever get his hands on a time machine.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#114

Post by rootusrootus »

TheDarkestSoul wrote: post #46
rsynnott wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it Well, I'm not sure that anyone's tech stack is capable of solving it; the live examples of robotaxis are, well, not something you'd bet your company on (and generally their creators are _not_ betting their companies on them). There was, I think, a decade ago the idea that fully self-driving cars were a near-term inevitability. That's fading, now.

I think a lot of that came from the Tesla hype machine creating a strong association between electric and self-driving as being the immediate future of cars in popular consciousness, so when people saw electric becoming a reality they assumed self-driving was right around the corner when in actuality their maturity levels aren't related much at all. Fallacious thinking that may doom a few companies between Lyft, Uber…

This is a good point. I think the market has to adjust to a reality where electric cars are just cars that happen to be electric, rather than a hyped up techno-dream. Electric propulsion all by itself is pretty great, we don't need to tie it to FSD dreams.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#115

Post by Shebanator »

carbadtraingood wrote: post #55
jackmott42 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FSD may be a huge fraud but the whole company is not. The cars are real!

The cars are real but they are... Mediocre. The first year of ownership is an amazing honeymoon period, assuming you got one with decent build quality. But the parts are cheap, and they break quickly. I've had one for 5+ years and it's gradually become something I prefer driving less and less.

Your personal experience is not something that can be so easily generalized. I've had my Model 3 for 4+ years, and the only real problems I've had are non-mechanical (nails embedded in tires, getting keyed in SF, etc.). See - we cancel out....

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#116

Post by lazyjones »

codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

> doesn’t seem capable of solving it,

How so?

If humans can master driving with 2 eyes looking forward, why would a car with plenty of cameras in all directions not have sufficient sensory input to master it?

The problem is the software, not the sensors.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#117

Post by saurik »

electric_mayhem wrote: post #77
clouddrover wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How so? Because they chose to back themselves into that corner. Musk says that Tesla is worth nothing without full self-driving. Certainly it's the only thing left to justify the stock price: https://electrek.co/2022/06/15/elon-musk-solving-self-drivin... > Which means it's years away and/or "FSD" means "automatic cruise control and lane keep assist" Well, more precisely it means Musk has been lying about it for ni…

Consumer and grid-scale battery storage Solar And I also think they could do some clever stuff with home HVAC, possibly using waste heat from crypto miners as the H. Lastly, afaik they went camera-only in their cheap cars (3/Y) and still use fancy stuff in the S/X. They gave fsd customers new computers once. What’s to stop them from going back to vision+lidar or whatever once the parts are available and retrofitting…

https://insideevs.com/news/570053/tesla-models-modelx-no-rad...

> Tesla has just confirmed that it has removed radar from the Model S and Model X as of mid-February 2022, moving its entire lineup to what it calls ‘Tesla Vision,’ which is an array of cameras that Tesla says negates the need for radar. The manufacturer did the same for the Model 3 and Model Y in May of last year and even though this prompted some questions from the IIHS, the institute is now fine with it after testing.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#119

Post by ra7 »

lazyjones wrote: post #116
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

> doesn’t seem capable of solving it, How so? If humans can master driving with 2 eyes looking forward, why would a car with plenty of cameras in all directions not have sufficient sensory input to master it? The problem is the software, not the sensors.

Same reason airplanes don't fly by just flapping their wings like birds. There's not always a biological equivalent for solving a problem, especially when you take into account human brain's evolution over millions of years. Sometimes computers need more help.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#120

Post by rootusrootus »

carbadtraingood wrote: post #50
dreamcompiler wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Musk actually said this he's an even bigger idiot than I gave him credit for. He makes the best cars in the world (obviously IMHO) and that's worth a lot more than 0. I couldn't give less of a damn if they can't drive themselves.

As an owner for 5+ years, the cars show well but pretty quickly become a pain in the ass. They'll get eclipsed by other electric car manufacturers real quick. Edit: more specifically, the parts break and they are difficult to replace. The battery degrades. They stopped providing maps to the vehicle unless I'm willing to spend several hundred dollars to replace the media console, they've told me I'm covered by a recal…

> As an owner for 5+ years, the cars show well but pretty quickly become a pain in the ass.

I agree. As a former owner. They are fun to show. But there are real annoyances. In the case of the Model 3 in particular, I quickly tired of the door handles. The psychotic windshield wipers. No CarPlay. The smartphone unlocking which worked most of the time until just that moment when your hands were full. It became a chore to live with. But dear god was it fast (I had the Performance trim). Not enough. I need my daily driver to not be a PITA.

I'm very interested in what the competition is doing. Ford one-upped the Model Y by putting that knob on the display and then adding another display in front of the driver. Most of the competitive EVs have real interiors, for that matter. All of them have CarPlay. Porsche made a legit sports car.

The future looks bright!

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