US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis • Hacker News Board

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#111

Post by planb » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 6:55 PM UTC

gretch wrote: post #43

yks wrote: post #29

The West could've ended this war by now if they just went all in on sending howitzers, MLRS and other heavy equipment into Ukraine but they keep slow dripping it, or just doing nothing like Germany. The most powerful societies in the world history just twiddle their thumbs while negative consequences keep mounting.

Yeah and Russia could have ended the war by now too by simply launching their nukes. I think it's weird you don't think anyone involved in the problem has thought of your proposed solution, or that you don't think there's any potential negative effects from antagonizing an unhinged despot with his finger on the nuke.

In fact, this is really simple: If Putin wants to launch nukes, he will launch nukes. If Putin thinks it will help his cause, he will launch nukes. There's nothing we can do about this. The strongest weapon Russia has right now is the threat of launching nukes it seems...

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#112

Post by LewisVerstappen » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 6:55 PM UTC

yks wrote: post #101

LewisVerstappen wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly what everyone said about Putin invading Ukraine. Putin invading Ukraine was impossible because he's not unhinged and it would be an insanely stupid thing to do. He's just gathering his armies next to the border because he's flaunting his strength. >I'm afraid that conviction is actually growing Based off your in-depth research of casually browsing NY Times headlines?

> This is exactly what everyone said about Putin invading Ukraine. First, not everyone, Ukrainians knew. Second, after the end of WW2 we lived (wanted to live) under a spell that conquering whole countries with some opportunistic genocide on top is not going to happen anymore, or at least not in the "civilized" Europe. Now, I hope the spell is off, we can see the world more clearly, and it's a raw power competition i…

> First, not everyone, Ukrainians knew

That's completely false. Just read the news from February.

U.S. Intelligence was warning Ukraine that Putin was planning to invade while Zelensky was in denial.

The invasion began on Thursday Feb. 24. On Monday Feb. 21, Zelenky was insistent that Putin wouldn't be crazy enough invade Ukraine.

Here's some articles from right before the invasion

- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60174684

- https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220206-us-officials-war...

- https://nypost.com/2022/01/28/zelensky-rebukes-western-panic...

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#113

Post by overtonwhy » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 6:55 PM UTC

tenpies wrote: post #42

nathanaldensr wrote: post #2

So "quiet" that Bloomberg's reporting on it? If you're a farmer, you're going to buy fertilizer from wherever and whomever unless prevented legally from doing so--and I, as a citizen of the US dependent on others growing this food on behalf of me, appreciate it.

You have to understand the utter diplomatic and geopolitical incompetence of the current US adminsitration. You're talking about the same administration that literally admitted in the open to be executing cyber attacks on Russia[1]. The fact that they haven't made most of North America glow in the dark is an utter miracle. And to make my point clear, the issue isn't that they're conducting cyber attacks - that's a gi…

This same user is concerned about "woke inquisitions" so take their criticisms of the "adminsitration" with a grain a salt.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#114

Post by jason-phillips » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 6:56 PM UTC

mc32 wrote: post #77

nathanaldensr wrote: post #2

So "quiet" that Bloomberg's reporting on it? If you're a farmer, you're going to buy fertilizer from wherever and whomever unless prevented legally from doing so--and I, as a citizen of the US dependent on others growing this food on behalf of me, appreciate it.

I don't know what it is, but it seems something is not right. On the one hand the US is asking the EU and allies to stop buying oil and whatever from Russia. A few large retailers pulled out of the Russian market due to perceived pressure to do so. We tell India (traditional non-aligned country) not to buy from Russia, we chastised Brazil for buying fertilizer from Russia (despite our objections), we tighten our own…

> On the one hand the US is asking the EU and allies to stop buying oil and whatever from Russia.

> WE'RE going to buy from Russia.

Having spent three years consulting for federal agencies, this behavior seems to align with my experiences. You learn not to say anything because it's a waste of time and energy. There are other ways to constructively spend your time, like focusing on the mission and the task at hand.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#115

Post by themitigating » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 6:57 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #108

mc32 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what it is, but it seems something is not right. On the one hand the US is asking the EU and allies to stop buying oil and whatever from Russia. A few large retailers pulled out of the Russian market due to perceived pressure to do so. We tell India (traditional non-aligned country) not to buy from Russia, we chastised Brazil for buying fertilizer from Russia (despite our objections), we tighten our own…

It's political. (I don't mean that as a negative, just reality.) The US is coming up on an election. The party in power is extremely unpopular right now, and about to get walloped according to polls. Polling shows that inflation is a big driver for their unpopularity. So they're trying to square two semi-incompatible positions: support Ukraine via sanctions and fight inflation too.

You can support Ukraine and fight inflation, both are good actions. It's a level of sanctions that has to be adjusted properly.

The wrong thing to do would be to drop all sanctions to try to lessen inflation in hopes of getting elected.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#116

Post by gambiting » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 6:57 PM UTC

LewisVerstappen wrote: post #63

varjag wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah the classic "don't rattle Putin or nuclear war" defense.

What kind of moronic dismissal is that? Avoiding nuclear war should be our #1 priority. "Oh those stupid idiots are scared of nuclear war"

I do believe that it's not "at all cost" though. Otherwise a nuclear power could do literally anything and you wouldn't be able to stop them "because nukes". If Putin started rolling tanks into Poland saying "don't stop me or I'll fire nukes" that would be the time to call his bluff, even if the consequences of getting this wrong are dire. The line has to be somewhere - right now it's the border of NATO member countries.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#117

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 6:57 PM UTC

tshaddox wrote: post #82

Jcowell wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well yes? Is there any indication, given Putin’s back to a wall that he would not order nukes as a final fuck you ?

Then what are you suggesting? That Putin ought to be allowed to do literally anything he wants because if we tried to stop him he might nuke everyone?

> Then what are you suggesting? That Putin ought to be allowed to do literally anything he wants because if we tried to stop him he might nuke everyone?

"Henry Kissinger, who wondered in his 1957 book Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy if extending the American deterrent to all of Europe at a time when the threat of total destruction hung over the US itself would actually work: ‘A reliance on all-out war as the chief deterrent saps our system of alliances in two ways: either our allies feel that any military effort on their part is unnecessary or they may be led to the conviction that peace is preferable to war even on terms almost akin to surrender... [1]"

In summary, the concern you raise is actively discussed in security circles. Post Ukraine, it's increasingly common to see the absolute nuclear taboo questioned.

Until the first nuclear power lobs a tactical nuke and doesn't suffer reprisal, we'll be in an uncomfortable transition period, analogous to the time immediately preceding MAD. (And let's be honest. If Putin lobbed a tactical nuke at Ukraine, does anybody seriously think he'd face military force?)

[1] https://mondediplo.com/2022/04/03nuclear

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#118

Post by cpursley » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 6:57 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #95

cpursley wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has actually raised minimum wage and pensions by 10% due to the huge inflow of tax revenue. They also reduced the emergency 20% interest rate to 9.5% (about same as before). And I can't find the article, but I read somewhere that they're only losing about 1/3 of the original reserves that was originally announced. The EU is getting played by both Russia and America.

> Russia has actually raised minimum wage and pensions by 10% due to the huge inflow of tax revenue This is less than inflation. (Curious to see a source spinning it as a result of tax revenues. Even for the Kremlin, that's an idiotic argument.) It's also about the amount Russia's economy is expected to shrink this year.

- https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-to-hike-russian-minimu...

- https://fortune.com/2022/06/14/putin-russia-oil-gas-profit-r...

- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-10/russia-cu...

Keep mind that the Russian government budget operates on a $40 gallon barrel of oil budget.

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#119

Post by gautamdivgi » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 6:58 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #106

mc32 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what it is, but it seems something is not right. On the one hand the US is asking the EU and allies to stop buying oil and whatever from Russia. A few large retailers pulled out of the Russian market due to perceived pressure to do so. We tell India (traditional non-aligned country) not to buy from Russia, we chastised Brazil for buying fertilizer from Russia (despite our objections), we tighten our own…

> tell India (traditional non-aligned country) not to buy from Russia This is an odd one to include given it's almost administration policy at this point to look the other way while New Delhi goes out of its way to buy Russian oil.

And Europe isn’t buying Russian oil? You have NATO members still on Russian energy. Why bother about other countries?

Re: US quietly urges more use of Russia fertilizer to ease food crisis

#120

Post by yks » Tue, Jun 14, 2022, 6:58 PM UTC

nemo44x wrote: post #94

yks wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia wins this war no matter what As they say, citation needed.

Just look at what's going on right now? They've just about succeeded now in claiming the Eastern territories they want and it won't be long now. Everything has turned the last few weeks since their initial offense was repelled and they regrouped. Why are some people rooting for more and more needless death and destruction?

First, letting Putin run over Ukraine is a guaranteed destruction of Ukrainian culture and identity, or at least a setback for several decades or centuries until Russia collapses again. Another generation of poets, writers, citizen sent to mass graves. Fine, you might think that physical safety of a majority outweigh such ephemeral concepts and the minority of cultural elites can be sacrificed to Putin but not everyone thinks that way. Many Ukrainians, for instance, are willing to sacrifice their physical safety for the survival of Ukrainian culture.

Second, letting Russia win will not stop further death and destruction when Putin continues his expansion westward, only then with Ukrainian conscripts as a cannon fodder.