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Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

thedefensepost.com

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Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#111

Post by dirtyid »

rnk wrote: post #96
FooBarWidget wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…

That's not true from my perspective as an American. China didn't historically make the same kind of continuing and increasing bellicose actions and claims as they do today. They have grown slowly over time, perhaps as China's military power has increased. Yes 50 years ago there was attacks, but China seems to be more threatened by the emergence of true democracy in Taiwan, and the development of later generations in…

That's certainly a very American perspective.

Ongoing PRC claims has been consistent since they were inherited from ROC days. They even fought war in SCS with NVietnam when their military was poverty tier. The reality is PRC rise in region has been EXTREMELY peaceful relative to level military expansion which itself is modest relative to GDP. All while settling 12/14 again, ROC inherited land border disputes with more concessions. PRC has done nothing particularly bellicose except defending claims she inherited, again not of her own making. The only possible except of Senkaku which again also ROC/TW claims. Japan BTW, has border (maritime) disputes with 100% of her neighbours despite being WW2 loser who should have territory constrained by treaty. Meanwhile SCS is a multiparty shit show, even then PRC managed to drop a dash line with North Vietnam when other parties made zero progress. The "peaceful" region rise of PRC is historically unprecedented.

There's a reason why western analysts has to bemoan about "grayzone" warfare... because PRC military has been extremely constraint. Even relative to ROC days when TW regularly blockaded military shipping and spent spy missions over PRC territory. TW just coping with reality that military balance has completely shifted in PRC favor. Tranch of US weapon sales to TW in 90s made TW one of the most advanced military powers in the region, but that's been chipped away to the point that TW itself is essentially hopeless regardless of level of US weapon sales.

As for being threatened by democracy, like TW broken politics and industrial stagnation outside of semiconductors is regularly memed on mainland. People don't generally look to TW as a model... or SK or JP or even US (anymore). PRC is threatened by renewed TW seccessionism weaponized by US because at the end of the day, the civil war never ended and they consider TW Chinese clay.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#112

Post by [deleted] »

rnk wrote: post #96
FooBarWidget wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…

That's not true from my perspective as an American. China didn't historically make the same kind of continuing and increasing bellicose actions and claims as they do today. They have grown slowly over time, perhaps as China's military power has increased. Yes 50 years ago there was attacks, but China seems to be more threatened by the emergence of true democracy in Taiwan, and the development of later generations in…

[deleted]

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#113

Post by jakzurr »

Short, interesting article (from a tech standpoint). A bit more here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CS/MPQ-90_Bee_Eye

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sky_Sword_II

I've gotta admit though, the political comments here, esp. regarding Ukraine/Russia, were even more interesting.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#114

Post by stale2002 »

cpursley wrote: post #95
stale2002 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is yes. Because their initial goal here was instead to go in and overthrow the government in a couple days, while not expecting any significant international response. There is a huge difference between their initial expectations, and what actually happened. And now they are in too deep to undo their mistakes.

I'll send you a $1,000 over Venmo or in Bitcoin if you can share where even a single top level Russian official said that amoung their goals was to take the capital.

> their goals was to take the capital.

You think those large amount of troops and resources, that were in the process of attempting to surround and take the capital were just sacrificed for no reason?

They spent a lot of resources on those attacks, and they didn't gain much from them.

Surely you should consider that it was a mistake, and don't think it was intentional for them to have taken such losses with little to show for it.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#115

Post by therealcamino »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #72
therealcamino wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"For example, the US clearly agreed on the One China Policy but they are now changing it. Because the US no longer values the original purpose that the One China Policy served." If by that you mean the US agreed that Taiwan should be a part of the PRC, that's never been true. It was just a condition of establishing relations with China that the US officially pretend that Taiwan isn't an independent nation. But everyo…

No. One China means the acknowledgement that the mainland and Taiwan are part of the same country, but there may be disagreement to who the government is. Before the US recognized the PRC government, it recognized the ROC government aka the one in Taiwan, as being the sole legit government of all of China including Taiwan. So the US didn't officially support "Taiwan independence". After the US flipped to PRC, they op…

I'm not talking about whether any "Taiwan independence" notion existed in Taiwan. The US hasn't entertained fantasies of Taiwan's government taking over the mainland, for more than 50 years.

In reality, the US doesn't believe that they're the same country: the status quo is that they aren't. The fact that the US can't say as much out loud, to avoid insulting the government of the PRC, doesn't make that any less true.

I guess what I'm saying is, nobody should pretend that the the official pronouncements of the US are its actual beliefs or policy around Taiwan. Everybody knows the US supports Taiwan staying independent, and just has to dance around that in public statements. Anything it says to the contrary is a polite fiction without real world effect.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#116

Post by mensetmanusman »

cpursley wrote: post #108
inglor_cz wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has already been humiliated. The allegedly second strongest army in the world could not defeat a much smaller neighboring country quickly and had to retreat from the proximity of Kyiv and Kharkiv. They do still have their artillery, though, and they are trying to take Donbass. In a very piecemeal fashion, very slowly. They have learnt something from their spring failures. The result of this war depends on how…

> Russia has already been humiliated. According to whom and compared to what? Russia has employed maybe 20% of their military personnel and gear and are weeks, maybe days, from consolidating and absorbing the Donboss. Keep in mind that Ukraine is the second largest military in Europe (after Russia) with their own military industrial complex, huge cache of Soviet weapons and the training and intelligence assets of NAT…

Under deploy your army, spread them too thin and attack at all fronts, send generals to die at the front line, retreat and focus everything on taking over a pile of rubble.

It is hilarious, if only it wasn’t so sad.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#117

Post by FooBarWidget »

rnk wrote: post #98
FooBarWidget wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deviations in agreements is not a thing exclusive to China. Agreements in international politics are made for a purpose. Perhaps to keep peace, or to protect some interest, etc. If the situation changes such that that purpose can no longer be served — especially if that purpose is an extremely important core interest — then any country will seek to deviate from agreed upon behavior. For example, the US clearly agreed…

The thing is that China defines the border territories around it as it wishes, and those definitions change over time to suit its current desires. So that turns out not to be an adequate description of why it behaves to protect its 'core interests'. Today the Chinese govt, aka Xi and the CCP seem to be working to become the most powerful country through trying to weaken democratic governments, along with this comes i…

> The thing is that China defines the border territories around it as it wishes, and those definitions change over time to suit its current desires.

This is false. All of today's claims existed back in 1949 when the PRC inherited claims from the ROC. In fact the PRC today claims fewer territories than 1949 because they've given up some territory as part of diplomatic deals.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#118

Post by inglor_cz »

cpursley wrote: post #108
inglor_cz wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has already been humiliated. The allegedly second strongest army in the world could not defeat a much smaller neighboring country quickly and had to retreat from the proximity of Kyiv and Kharkiv. They do still have their artillery, though, and they are trying to take Donbass. In a very piecemeal fashion, very slowly. They have learnt something from their spring failures. The result of this war depends on how…

> Russia has already been humiliated. According to whom and compared to what? Russia has employed maybe 20% of their military personnel and gear and are weeks, maybe days, from consolidating and absorbing the Donboss. Keep in mind that Ukraine is the second largest military in Europe (after Russia) with their own military industrial complex, huge cache of Soviet weapons and the training and intelligence assets of NAT…

"Russia has employed maybe 20% of their military personnel"

That is a shallow measure. Most modern armies have "tooth to tail" [0] ratio less than 1:5. Combat-ready units constitute a minority of the entire military personnel everywhere, and Russia has deployed most of those in Ukraine. It cannot afford to deploy all of them, as it has long borders and shores that need patrolling.

Russia no doubt has a huge cache of Soviet-era weapons, but it has already burnt through much of that cache, much like Ukraine did. Given that they are transferring T-62 to the theater, deploying ancient Kh-22 missiles and that the dud rate for both missiles and artillery shells seems to be between 10-30 per cent, it seems that they are already down to using older, less reliable stock. That does not mean that they ran out of modern stuff completely, but rather that the newer stock is depleted enough that they need to be careful about that.

For me, the humiliation consists of the current stalemate. I don't require any massive counteroffensives from the Ukrainians to see the Russian advance as a failure. They didn't manage to take freaking Kharkiv that lies just 40 km from the border and they fought three months over Mariupol, besieged from all sides.

This is just incompatible with the image of an unstoppable bear that Russia cultivated before the war.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth-to-tail_ratio

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#119

Post by rocqua »

cpursley wrote: post #95
stale2002 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is yes. Because their initial goal here was instead to go in and overthrow the government in a couple days, while not expecting any significant international response. There is a huge difference between their initial expectations, and what actually happened. And now they are in too deep to undo their mistakes.

I'll send you a $1,000 over Venmo or in Bitcoin if you can share where even a single top level Russian official said that amoung their goals was to take the capital.

They landed airborne troops at the capital, and had a very long convoy headed for the capital.

Regardless of what they said, they tried to attack the capital. That says more about whether they tried to take the capital than public statements.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#120

Post by Rapzid »

cpursley wrote: post #109
futhey wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has been humiliated abroad. Now, they must be humiliated at home. This means Crimea returning to Ukrainian control. That... will require a significantly greater commitment from Nato allies, or the US. Until Nato makes a greater commitment, the Chinese will (correctly) read this as a sign that in the event of a Taiwan invasion, the US will provide military support, but stop before committing troops to enforcing…

> Humiliated abroad The vast majority of human kind are neutral or pro Russia regarding the situation. Sorry, but the English speaking countries (sans India) and EU are not "the word" despite the sense of superiority and entitlement. As for Crimea, that ain't never happening. The people there are majority Russian and Tartar and with a very small Ukrainian minority. Not only does Wikipedia tell me that, but I've talke…

There was a UN resolution a while back condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Did 141 countries vote in favor of it with just 35 abstaining?

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