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On Covid

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Re: On Covid

#111
post #30

I've seen a few posts like this recently and I have to confess: I don't get it. What does "it is time to stop obsessing about Covid" mean? I have small children so I'm still living in some kind of COVID purgatory but for the majority of the population COVID hasn't really been an obsession for quite a while. People are dining indoors, they're traveling, socializing... life more or less is back to normal. Schools are s…

> sheer number of COVID patients overwhelming the ability for a hospital to do anything other than treat COVID

Your statement makes it sound like hospitals are devoting 50%+ to Covid, that is just not even close to reality frankly anywhere in the world.

Re: On Covid

#112
post #30

I've seen a few posts like this recently and I have to confess: I don't get it. What does "it is time to stop obsessing about Covid" mean? I have small children so I'm still living in some kind of COVID purgatory but for the majority of the population COVID hasn't really been an obsession for quite a while. People are dining indoors, they're traveling, socializing... life more or less is back to normal. Schools are s…

It’s because the authors don’t have under 5 kids. So they don’t care.

Bitter lesson from last 2 years: no one cares about other’s misfortune at cost of self’s convenience.

Re: On Covid

#113

> First, we have less severe variants now. Please don't assume that future variants will be less and less severe. It's what we all want to hear, but this "covid is over" mentality is what will help produce the next, possibly really nasty, variant.

> Please don't assume that future variants will be less and less severe.

Future pandemic waves will be less and less severe.

It doesn't matter how virulent the variants are, they're all about the same within a factor of 2 or so.

The thing that moves the needle is the human immune system. >90% of the population everywhere has T-cells now one way or another. People who are boosted have T-cells that have gone through affinity maturation and been boosted which should be a mature immune response that will keep them out of hospitals permanently (barring compromise of their immune system of course, but that's a risk with influenza and everything else).

As the unvaccinated/antivaxxers manage to get mature boosted immune systems the hard way then the impact of each successive wave will be lower. Once we hit the point where the unvaccinated percentage in the hospitals roughly equals the unvaccinated percentage in the general population then the pandemic is probably over.

So with 90% unvaccinated in the hospitals right now with 64% fully vaccinated, then at some point another Omicron-sized wave of infections should result in only 15% of the overall hospitalizations. Of course it won't be perfect, but the trend of each successive wave should move the needle more to that level. Each successive wave should asymptotically approach that burden.

Eventually its likely that the waves become smaller as well, due to mature boosted immunity against infection and transmission.

And Omicron probably isn't significantly less severe of a virus, the studies in culture and in mice attempting to show that have large problems. The less severity of hospital burden in the Omicron wave is showing that the human immune system (and vaccination and boosting) works.

Re: On Covid

#114
post #58

"It is time to stop politicizing Covid." but their argument amounts to "you need to just stop fighting me and give me what I want". What exactly do we unlearn when he quotes, "unlearn many of the behaviors we’ve learned in the last two years"? What hardships are we going to go through if we continue to wear masks a little longer than necessary? Do I really need to shake your hand when we greet? Believe it or not peop…

Sounds like you are a customer for a new type of insurance policy which right or wrong discriminates against unvaccinated. Weirdly enough I think the unvaccinated would see their policies go down in price because we are by and large young. Are you sure you want to cleave populations in two based on that policy change, are you certain it will benefit you in the way you expect?

Re: On Covid

#115
post #19
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought the general theory of "virus evolution" was towards less severe variants. Of course, more severe variants can always develop. Holds same for flu, HIV, ... not just COVID.

Not really. The virus, lacking feelings, doesn't particularly care how sick you get. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/dec/08/facebook-p...

Evolution is not about, or caused by, feelings.

Re: On Covid

#116
post #96
post #30

I've seen a few posts like this recently and I have to confess: I don't get it. What does "it is time to stop obsessing about Covid" mean? I have small children so I'm still living in some kind of COVID purgatory but for the majority of the population COVID hasn't really been an obsession for quite a while. People are dining indoors, they're traveling, socializing... life more or less is back to normal. Schools are s…

It's one out of a large number of propaganda lines or "NPC script lines" where the ultimate goal is to convince the reader/listener to decide that we should simply stick our heads in the sand and pretend the COVID-19 pandemic does not exist. You are lucky if you have not been exposed to this propaganda very much yet. You might notice that the editorial reads as if the word "Covid" refers to "that time when the govern…

I'm confused as to why they (or their "propaganda") are the reason there is still a pandemic. Abandoning mitigations means it burns through the population quicker. Eventually we will all decide that the COVID-19 pandemic does not exist, because it will end at some point, right?

Re: On Covid

#117
post #9

Thousands of Americans are losing their lives every day to Covid. New cases are MUCH higher than they were at any point in 2020 or 2021 (though it looks like we may finally have crossed the peak of this wave). I'm sorry, but it isn't over yet. I wish it was. However wishing it or asserting it doesn't make it true. This was a sensible argument to make in July 2021 when vaccines were more effective and cases were liter…

Have you talked to the parents of young children? Because those are exactly the people that are over it. A)kids are at statistically zero risk of covid unless they have cancer or something B) we have all already had covid because little kids are germ factories 3)the vaccines have been available for over a year now so you have had ample time to get one if you want to 4)the masks and lack of social engagement for child…

Yes, I am myself the parent of young children.

> kids are at statistically zero risk of covid unless they have cancer or something

At risk of what? Dying? What about passing covid on to others? Or covid symptoms that do not go away? What about merely needing to be hospitalized? That still seems pretty bad. My local Children's Hospital has more pediatric covid patients than at any time during the pandemic and the city has re-authorized crisis standards of care.

> the vaccines have been available for over a year now so you have had ample time to get one

Kids 5-12 have only had a few months and kids under 5 still have no vaccine.

> But I am done sacrificing my child’s well being to spare the elderly

That strikes me as rather cruel. What exactly are you sacrificing? Isn't every school in the country back to in-person? Is it having to wear a mask?

Look, I'm also tired of covid and don't want to have to think about it ever again. But the problems with the actual virus still far outweigh problems caused by our response to the virus.

Re: On Covid

#118
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At what point do we blame our broken health care system that seemingly can’t handle something as mild as omicron? Now.

Current logic: There are hospitals that are forcing covid positive staff to work but not letting staff that has had covid already but isn’t vaccinated work. Similar logic: shutting down nuclear power plants and then complaining that there isn’t enough power. More similar logic: allowing decades of fuel to build up on the bottom of forests and then expressing befuddlement when wild fires burn out of control. What’s th…

> What’s the common thread here?

Your consumption of only hard-right 'news' sources.

Re: On Covid

#119
post #9

Thousands of Americans are losing their lives every day to Covid. New cases are MUCH higher than they were at any point in 2020 or 2021 (though it looks like we may finally have crossed the peak of this wave). I'm sorry, but it isn't over yet. I wish it was. However wishing it or asserting it doesn't make it true. This was a sensible argument to make in July 2021 when vaccines were more effective and cases were liter…

I am a parent of young children, and we probably have more reason to feel "over it" than other folks. I spent the first two weeks of this year balancing full-time work with a kid at home because he tested positive. I got a fever for about a day, but that was it. But the disruption to my work and his education was far worse than any alternative. The entire class ended up getting sick with COVID anyways. We were triple…

I believe a higher percentage of ICU beds are occupied nationally than at any point in the pandemic: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitalization-7-day-trend

If ICU overflows are when we pull out all of the stops, can we pull out just some of the stops before it gets that dire?

It's already not great. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/overwhelmed-by-omicron-surg...

Re: On Covid

#120
post #30

I've seen a few posts like this recently and I have to confess: I don't get it. What does "it is time to stop obsessing about Covid" mean? I have small children so I'm still living in some kind of COVID purgatory but for the majority of the population COVID hasn't really been an obsession for quite a while. People are dining indoors, they're traveling, socializing... life more or less is back to normal. Schools are s…

> sheer number of COVID patients overwhelming the ability for a hospital to do anything other than treat COVID Your statement makes it sound like hospitals are devoting 50%+ to Covid, that is just not even close to reality frankly anywhere in the world.

I don't know where you got 50% from, but between covid patients and hospital workers themselves becoming ill the situation is really not great https://www.reuters.com/world/us/overwhelmed-by-omicron-surg...
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