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America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

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Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#111

Post by chasd00 »

sAbakumoff wrote: post #8

America will not collapse, but American democracy likely will collapse. At the end of 2022, GOP will win the mid-term elections and have the majority in the house and the senate. They already have state legislatures effectively under control, and the supreme court is full of conservative judges. In 2024 Ron De Santos, or another authoritarian candidate, will win the GOP nomination and easily win the election because…

> the GOP will establish an autocracy for decades.

do you just mean win elections for decades? That i can sort of believe (or at least comprehend), but wholesale destruction of Democracy? To me, that means canceling elections and the president declaring themself absolute power for life which i just don't see happening. I would expect a military coup before that since the military swears allegiance to the constitution first and then civilian leadership next.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#112

Post by chasd00 »

simon_o wrote: post #63
synergy20 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm still a little bit confident in the system, though. Because in 2026, Dem will win back both congress and senate, it's just a normal pattern. Voters never liked any party owns it all. Two parties keep playing this along the way, except each game are so close these days, it's tiring and boring and hard to advance any agenda when either one is in control. The system is getting close to deadlock when both sides no lo…

> Because in 2026, Dem will win back both congress and senate, it's just a normal pattern. The parent's prediction is that there won't be a (free) election in 2026. Hope that helps.

that's just fear mongering though, in 2008 the Republicans said Obama was the antichrist and would declare himself dictator for life ffs. And before that, the Democrats said the same about Bush, "he's going to cancel elections, declare himself dictator, and use 9/11 and the thread of terrorism as the justification!"

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#113

Post by wcoenen »

300bps wrote: post #102
wcoenen wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This energy miracle may be a bit of a short lived illusion. The shift to fracking also resulted in a much lower EROEI (energy return on energy invested). Quote from [1]: > Two aspects of shale production make it radically different from conventional production. First, it takes a lot more energy (including many miles of steel tubing per well, for example) to extract energy out of these wells. Traditional wells have a…

I think this type of response should referred to as, "Refutation By Irrelevance". In this case, Person A claimed that X will happen by Y date and Person B proved that literally the opposite happened by Y date. Your response is to say that it may not be true by Z date. Which is all fine and good but not the point. It didn't help that you offered as proof a link to a web site that states it is "focused on the environme…

I wasn't trying to refute anything. I was just providing some context about the economics of fracking that I believed to be interesting to other HN readers.

Similar remarks have also been made by people in the oil and gas industry, it's not just an environmentalist meme:

> the technology that enables unconventional oil and gas production resulted in a 4-fold increase in oil and gas drilling costs from 2003 to 2014

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurberman/2017/07/05/shale-g...

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#114

Post by DesiLurker »

chasd00 wrote: post #109
DesiLurker wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is not even remotely true, the only reason US is a net oil exporter is because combination of high oil prices & cheap money has created an artificial support environment where unprofitable stuff like shale oil can survive. take some of these factors out and add demand destruction (even as low as 5%) from EVs and you are back to wildly fluctuating oil prices with no end in sight because every year the problem wil…

isn't not being dependent on fossil fuels the goal? If EVs cause demand destruction for oil then that's good no? The more oil left unburned the better, i thought that was the point all along. who cares about wildly fluctuating oil prices if your country is no longer dependent on oil.

Oh I strongly agree about need of moving away from oil, I was just addressing the oil shock remarks parent made. I do worry about the compensatory behavior in non-ev addressed markets (like aviation, energy, food etc) just because oil prices are temporarily low after EV demand destruction. this is why I feel its best to start removing all fossil subsidies at the first chance we get because we may not want a distorted price signal to exist for any longer than it has to.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#115

Post by DesiLurker »

chasd00 wrote: post #112
simon_o wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because in 2026, Dem will win back both congress and senate, it's just a normal pattern. The parent's prediction is that there won't be a (free) election in 2026. Hope that helps.

that's just fear mongering though, in 2008 the Republicans said Obama was the antichrist and would declare himself dictator for life ffs. And before that, the Democrats said the same about Bush, "he's going to cancel elections, declare himself dictator, and use 9/11 and the thread of terrorism as the justification!"

except after obama terms democrats didn't go on a insurrectionist rampage through the capitol with ARs and zipties while obama/biden were simultaneously cheering on. neither did dems have the audacity to send out fake election certifications just because. 'Both Sides' are not the same!

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#116

Post by DesiLurker »

weatherlight wrote: post #16
sAbakumoff wrote: post #8

America will not collapse, but American democracy likely will collapse. At the end of 2022, GOP will win the mid-term elections and have the majority in the house and the senate. They already have state legislatures effectively under control, and the supreme court is full of conservative judges. In 2024 Ron De Santos, or another authoritarian candidate, will win the GOP nomination and easily win the election because…

I find this prospect terrifying.

No post body was provided.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#118

Post by DesiLurker »

chasd00 wrote: post #108
parkingrift wrote: post #34

>After years of swelling deficits fed by incessant warfare in distant lands, in 2020, as long expected, the U.S. dollar finally loses its special status as the world's reserve currency. Suddenly, the cost of imports soars. Unable to pay for swelling deficits by selling now-devalued Treasury notes abroad, Washington is finally forced to slash its bloated military budget. It's funny and interesting that the military bu…

> ...and then, finally, we get to defense spending at $700B. just a small reminder that $700B is less than the bank bailout of 2008/2009 which straddled both a Republican and Democrat president. That's in the top 5 most outrageous things in my lifetime (so far).

what you conveniently left out was that its only less by $100B (also one time vs recurring). Secondly it happened at the hand of a republican president and the democrat had to clean up the mess made by republican as always. one more thing the bank bailout was absolutely necessary if you did not want economy to collapse into a depression but none of the conservatives ever talk about all the banking deregulation (like graham beach leahy & glass stegal) that actually led to the conditions where financial system became so fragile that it had to be bailed out. Also, Govt actually made money on the TARP bailout after the funds were mostly returned.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#119

Post by todorus »

tablespoon wrote: post #81
davideous wrote: post #19

The book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail" by Ray Dalio compares the rise (and decline) of the American "world empire" to prior world empires. The two most recent are the U.K. and the Netherlands. The same things that are happening now have happened before -- just not in our lifetimes. The history and his analysis is quite instructive. The book was refreshing in its…

> The book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail" by Ray Dalio compares the rise (and decline) of the American "world empire" to prior world empires. Why should I put much stock in historical analysis done by a "American billionaire investor and hedge fund manager" [1]? My gut feel that someone like that probably has so much other stuff on his plate that the analysis woul…

Ad hominem

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#120

Post by zozbot234 »

BitwiseFool wrote: post #73
wbsss4412 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you pose is the implication of that?

This is a terrific, albeit deep dive into the topic. https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/ Broadly speaking, the US has to run trade deficits in order for the rest of the world to have the dollars they must use to buy oil. This severely handicaps our ability to manufacture and produce things domestically. During the past century the US Government took on lots of debt with the understanding that our eco…

This "buy oil" stuff is a non-sequitur from an economic POV. A current-account deficit is the flip-side of a capital-account surplus, i.e. of money flowing into the U.S. as investment, from whatever source. Far from handicapping "ability to produce and manufacture things domestically", a persistent trade deficit may thus be a reflection of that very ability.
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