Live data from Hacker News

Anarchists making their own medicine (2018)

vice.com

111–120 of 244 posts

Re: Anarchists making their own medicine (2018)

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think we are seeing the same thing, a system designed to remove corruption/regulatory capture/lobbying as far as possible from the process Not really. It's more like a system to selectively remove intellectual property rights without destroying the financial incentive to develop drugs.

Oh. So you don't want a system that removes corruption, regulatory capture, and lobbying as far as possible? I don't want to destroy the financial incentive either, I think it's great people that bring wanted goods to market profit from it. IP is an interesting point, although I'm not convinced that generating the IP is more than a small fraction of the cost of a drug. An aggregate I saw from 2011-2018 puts Research…

> Oh. So you don't want a system that removes corruption, regulatory capture, and lobbying as far as possible?

Well, sure. But that's not what this is actually about. The titular anarchists are not inventing new drugs, they're finding alternative ways to get drugs that have already been invented.

> That is to say, with all else removed you could generate an IP only company for 17% the cost of drug sales.

I am not convinced that accurately reflects the reality of running a pharmaceutical business, even if incentives/competition is somewhat warped in healthcare. There are a lot of penny-stock pharma companies whose only mission is to generate valuable IP. They're notorious for being volatile (since their outcome is basically binary on the results of research), but not for being great investments. If what you are asserting was actually true, those sorts of firms would generate ~5x higher returns, on average.

Re: Anarchists making their own medicine (2018)

#112
post #14

I hope we can eventually have self-contained machines that can synthesize many different types of medications. By certifying the machines or testing them thoroughly, you can lessen the worry that people will synthesize the drugs wrong. I think this is almost possible for a large range of simple, small-molecule drugs.

That could never be as efficient or as safe as making huge industrial-size batches.

Re: Anarchists making their own medicine (2018)

#113
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to be able to discuss ideas on their merits instead of being confronted with factional applause lights like "anti-vax".

Arguments like "clearly fail to control the spread" are low effort Gish Gallops that need to be treated as such. Publicly slugging it out in the weeds grants an optical stalemate to an argument that deserves to lose. Do this a million times in a row and you can launch an entire contrarian movement off vapors -- which is exactly what we have seen.

At first I expected the advent of mass vaccination to end the pandemic, because it only had to drop R by a factor of two or so to drop below the critical percolation threshold, so even a vaccine providing 50% sterilizing immunity would be good enough, and the mRNA vaccines turned out to be even more effective than expected. I turned out to be spectacularly wrong about that; as you may or may not be aware, the pandemic did not end a year ago. It turned out that, unlike vaccines like the smallpox vaccine, the covid vaccines did not provide much sterilizing immunity.

Moreover, the virus has become endemic in a number of zoonotic reservoirs, including deer, feral cats, and some mustelids, and vaccinating or exterminating those populations is not realistic in the next few decades. This is not currently a significant source of human outbreaks as far as I can tell, but after the humans reach herd immunity, it will be the only one.

Consequently, the cost-benefit tradeoff for covid vaccinations with the currently available vaccines needs to be evaluated with respect to the benefit to the person being vaccinated. I'm glad I'm vaccinated: as an obese 45-year-old man, my risk of death from covid might approach 1%, which is enormously higher than any plausible risks from any of the vaccines I'm familiar with. But that tradeoff is not the same for everyone, and there are populations where the rate of death or permanent harm from a vaccine, though still extremely low, is likely higher than the rate of death or permanent harm from covid itself.

The situation would be different if, for example, vaccinating schoolchildren prevented them from infecting and inadvertently killing their grandparents. But it doesn't. So the fact that the existing vaccinations clearly fail to control the spread is extremely relevant to the cost-benefit tradeoff, in particular because it means that there's no valid public-interest argument for requiring people to get vaccinated. Since both the cost and the benefit flow to them individually, they should be able to make the decision individually, except in cases such as small children and comatose patients.

This is an argument that deserves rational consideration, not dismissal with mindkiller phrases like "vapors" and "anti-vax". That's the sort of argument, or rather non-argument, that "deserves to lose".

Re: Anarchists making their own medicine (2018)

#114
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The new spectrometers are using YBCO, and they are many years beyond schedule. That whole thing turned out to be a lot harder than many people seemed to expect. The magnets are not the only cost in NMR spectrometers, I think you're seriously understimating the amount of electronics in them. You need to detect very weak signals at several hundreds of MHz, that's not trivial.

How weak are they? Detecting very weak signals (-110 dBm) at hundreds of MHz and even GHz is routinely done by Wi-Fi cards and cellphone radios, and GPS receivers detect signals that are orders of magnitude weaker than that (routinely -150 dBm), but only at tens of MHz. My eyes routinely detect submillilux signals when I look at the stars at night, with an integration time of well under a second; if I'm doing the cal…

The signals are weak, but more importantly, the signals are being detected in a volume wiht a huge magnetic field. You can't even put a digital circuit anywhere in the amplifier. When I worked on the NMR all the monitors in the room were shifted toward the magnet, it would wipe your credit cards, and to adjust the amplifier involved sitting under a multi-ton device twiddling knobs to minimize the impedence.

Think of NMR as bespoke. Like a large luxury liner built for a rich individual. It's not ever going to be a zodiac.

Re: Anarchists making their own medicine (2018)

#115
I can get the medicines I need to "save" me. I can't get the medicines that would help me to die. I wonder what this group's moral posture is on using their equipment to manufacture Nembutal (or other barbiturates).

I would like to have 15g of Nembutal in a safe place, so that I can kill myself painlessly and without leaving a mess, should the circumstances require that. I know that no medical professional would help me do that, because they would immediately be disqualified. Instead they would have to strive officiously to prolong my life.

Nembutal is illegal to possess, at least it is here. That's not like the drugs this group are helping people to make, which are all legal to possess provided you have a prescription, or so the article says. There's no "therapeutic" use for Nembutal that can't be met by a safer drug.

As a result Nembutal is really difficult to source (also because it's part of the traditional cocktail used in US death-by-poisoning executions).

Re: Anarchists making their own medicine (2018)

#116
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems odd to call it that as there's little 'capitalism' in it. It's abuse of state regulations rather than market forces.

Why wouldn't a capitalist corporation choose to lobby the government to bend the rules in their favor if they think that that would give the best ROI? In what version of Capitalism would this not happen? What would remove this incentive structure?

In almost any version of Democracy, an authoritarian politician can choose to run for office on a platform of establishing a dictatorship; in most of them, they can even succeed. That doesn't make the would-be dictator a democrat, and it doesn't make their platform a democratic platform. Similarly, free-market incentives to lobby for government monopolies don't make monopolies capitalistic, because capitalism requires a free market, and monopolies and monopsonies are the opposite of a free market.

Marx called this sort of thing "the internal contradictions of capitalism"; he argued that capitalism was an inherently unstable structure, just as many writers have argued that democracy was inherently unstable. They might be right. But in either case, the possible fact that one system inevitably gives rise to its opposite doesn't make it the same as its opposite.

Re: Anarchists making their own medicine (2018)

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh. So you don't want a system that removes corruption, regulatory capture, and lobbying as far as possible? I don't want to destroy the financial incentive either, I think it's great people that bring wanted goods to market profit from it. IP is an interesting point, although I'm not convinced that generating the IP is more than a small fraction of the cost of a drug. An aggregate I saw from 2011-2018 puts Research…

> Oh. So you don't want a system that removes corruption, regulatory capture, and lobbying as far as possible? Well, sure. But that's not what this is actually about. The titular anarchists are not inventing new drugs, they're finding alternative ways to get drugs that have already been invented. > That is to say, with all else removed you could generate an IP only company for 17% the cost of drug sales. I am not con…

>Well, sure. But that's not what this is actually about. The titular anarchists are not inventing new drugs, they're finding alternative ways to get drugs that have already been invented.

... yes and they're doing so because in part regulatory capture, lobbying, and corruption have lead to unaffordable drugs. So that is, partially, what this is actually about. But sure there are other reasons for people to manufacture their own drugs outside of formal channels.

>I am not convinced that accurately reflects the reality of running a pharmaceutical business, even if incentives/competition is somewhat warped in healthcare. There are a lot of penny-stock pharma companies whose only mission is to generate valuable IP. They're notorious for being volatile (since their outcome is basically binary on the results of research), but not for being great investments. If what you are asserting was actually true, those sorts of firms would generate ~5x higher returns, on average.

That's actually my point. Generating the IP looks to be low value compared to wading through all the insane regulatory barriers, developing sales channels in-bred with medical board licensed doctors and FDA regulators that examine sales materials, lobbying for regulatory capture and all the other expensive pursuits that arguably may not add much value to the ill person consuming the drug. Another words, I'm not sure removing IP from the equation really changes the cost of drugs that much.

Re: Anarchists making their own medicine (2018)

#118
post #60
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What reduces the risk that a drug will be dangerous is testing, quality control, replication, and transparency. Regulatory compliance is, at best, a means to those ends, not an end in itself. At worst, and far too often, it's a major obstacle to them. People don't have to be evilly plotting when their incentives are set up to empower only people who do evil things. Don't forget that, in the US, we're talking about th…

So, uh, how are we going to ensure that all that testing, QC, and transparency occurs... without some sort of regulatory agency that enforces it? and that agency woudl use compliance (submit this and that form and follow this and that process)... so it would seem that they act as proxies for the value of the things you listed.

In the comment you responded to, I am not taking up the subject of how to achieve testing, replication, QC, and transparency. I am merely pointing out that, to reason clearly about the issue, it is essential to distinguish these goods—genuinely valuable benefits to drug users which should be maximized—from any potential means for achieving them, such as regulatory compliance, which is a deadweight loss to be minimized, even if it is an unavoidable one, as you claim it is.

To do otherwise is similar to measuring the progress of a software project in lines of code, measuring the quality of an airframe design by its weight, or measuring the security provided by the TSA in the number of fingernail trimmers confiscated. It's counting regulatory compliance activities on the wrong side of the ledger.

Re: Anarchists making their own medicine (2018)

#119
post #87
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the companies, or at least the industries, that would buy all the machines? Ultimately what everyday people will end up using is whatever is cheap and works well enough. Right now NMR isn't cheap, and neither is FT-IR or XRD, but these things change over time. Benchtop NMR is already good enough for distinguishing between significant classes of contaminants that could be in your purported insulin. I'm typing…

Some things change, but to make NMR cost effective would be cheating mother nature. The entire technique is based on producing a strong and homogenous magnetic field that can hold a lot of sample, only to probe the sample with weak RF and listen to its faint echoes. Industrial diamonds got "cheap" but large ones never did.

You could be right; certainly you know a great deal more about the subject than I do.

What are the companies, or at least the industries, that would buy all the machines if you could make them much cheaper and/or better?

Re: Anarchists making their own medicine (2018)

#120

I can get the medicines I need to "save" me. I can't get the medicines that would help me to die. I wonder what this group's moral posture is on using their equipment to manufacture Nembutal (or other barbiturates). I would like to have 15g of Nembutal in a safe place, so that I can kill myself painlessly and without leaving a mess, should the circumstances require that. I know that no medical professional would help…

No post body was provided.
Post reply on HN