South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

Post by wholinator2 » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 8:35 PM UTC

arn wrote: post #76

volkse wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has been discussed many times before - the issue with the SA data is that 80% of the population have been exposed to the virus (either had it or have been vaccinated) so the deaths not budging there can be very misleading for countries with lower vaccination rates.

The other related factor is omicron is more likely (than other variants) to infect someone who has been vaccinated or previously exposed to covid. So the number of infected low risk individuals is higher, than with previous strains. The denominator is higher than if, let’s say, delta was let loose in the same population at the same time.

Post by vmception » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 8:36 PM UTC

dpark wrote: post #92

vmception wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, if any major US markets reintroduce restrictions, I’ll move back to one of them just to vote the governor and health director out in favor of some hardcore health gambler like De Santis. I played along, now they’re done. edit: the responder assumed something that wasn’t said, and then wrote an essay about something thats not happening and an example from Mississippi. Maybe to save time from having a natural f…

> I’ll move back to one of them just to vote the governor and health director out. Am I correctly understanding that you intend to move to a different region for the sole purpose of voting against restrictions that otherwise would not apply to you? You’re literally trying to be a problematic immigrant. I remember when I was in college a bunch of people did exactly this. They registered for residency in the state sole…

Post by martin938 » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 8:36 PM UTC

endisneigh wrote: post #60

earthbee wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It typically takes three weeks to go from being a case to dead, given how quickly it was rising it was very hard to get a good sense of how many people were likely to die before it was already infecting huge numbers of people. That's not panic, that's justifiable concern about a new strain of a virus that has killed millions of people around the world already.

Most people who died were not vaccinated

Post by divbzero » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 8:37 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #40

fiter wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since deaths lag cases, have you seen a graph that has peaks labeled on the time axis?

I added the original source so you can explore in more detail. You can see that in previous spikes there was a short delay, but in general they rose in tandem. All evidence points to Omicron as far less lethal than Delta.

Post by kelnos » Wed, Dec 22, 2021, 8:37 PM UTC

toolz wrote: post #105

volkse wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has been discussed many times before - the issue with the SA data is that 80% of the population have been exposed to the virus (either had it or have been vaccinated) so the deaths not budging there can be very misleading for countries with lower vaccination rates.

South Africa is well under average vaccination rate globally. Also what do you mean by they've been exposed to the virus? Of course they've been exposed to the virus, that's exactly why it's interesting to see how their deaths follow cases. There's no indication that the first world, with much higher vaccination rates won't fare better than South Africa, which seems to be faring exceptionally well relative to other c…