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Omicron Update, Dec 2

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

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Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#111

Post by disambiguation »

volta83 wrote: post #108
disambiguation wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is really dumb. There was no pan-Euro response nor was there a pan-American response, so these groupings are arbitrary. Unless you have an objective "score" that Euro lockdowns and policies on average went further than American lockdown policies, these numbers are meaningless. You could easily justify the differences as deriving from Europe having an objectively healthier population and better healthcare systems…

I just showed the data, and summarized that according to the data, people in the EU had better chances. I never claimed that this data is the result of COVID policies. This is something you made up, and then proceeded to debunk, which is essentially the definition of a strawman. Please stop building strawmans and putting words in people's mouth. It's unpolite.

So some one asks about the math on the success of lockdown policies, and you take the opportunity to do the math on... something completely unrelated?

It's not clear you're making any claims at all, which begs the question why you bothered posting in the first place.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#112

Post by pfg »

spurgu wrote: post #110
pfg wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You're going to have to dumb it down for me as to how this doesn't refer to spread. Vaccinated index cases infecting others in the same household are only one scenario, and in that particular scenario, the study found no impact on spread. The study did find that vaccinated household members were less likely to be infected (SAR 25% vs. 38%) and that vaccinated cases had a faster rate of viral load decline - both of…

WHO is citing that study as well[0], seemingly drawing the same conclusion as I did: > Prior to the emergence of the delta variant, it was reported that the risk of symptomatic cases in household contacts of vaccinated cases was about 50% lower than that among household contacts of unvaccinated cases(22). However, the impact of vaccination on reducing transmission in the context of the more transmissible delta varian…

I'm really not sure if we're on the same page on the conclusion of the study, so I'll repeat it just in case:

Scenario 1: A vaccinated household member (the index case) is COVID-positive. The study finds that other household members are just as likely to get infected regardless of the vaccination status of the index case. There is no reduction of spread.

Scenario 2: Some household member (regardless of vaccination status) is COVID-positive. The study finds that other vaccinated household members are less likely to get infected. Spread is reduced.

That's basically what the WHO is saying - we may have had the positive impact of scenario 1 prior to Delta, but that's mostly gone. Scenario 2 still shows some effect on spread. It may be lower now, but it's still significant.

The article also states that "Vaccinating school-aged children may help minimize school disruptions by reducing the number of infections at school" and "there are benefits of vaccinating children and adolescents that go beyond the direct health benefits. Vaccination that decreases COVID transmission in this age group may reduce transmission from children and adolescents to older adults".

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#113

Post by edmcnulty101 »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #77
edmcnulty101 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because the news media does not make money on rational and level headed takes, and the people in power do not maintain power with rational and level headed takes. Threat level ORANGE!

Is the assumption that those in positions of power in various governments are just watching the news, so that's why they chose to take more drastic actions with this one, even though Delta raised similar flags with the media but much less action was taken?

Its more of a historical observation. Fear is the powerful person's best friend. US has been surprisingly tame with it's authoritarian power grabs probably due to our checks and balances and state rights. I hear other countries are having much bigger problems with authoritarian power grabs.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#114

Post by simonh »

spurgu wrote: post #103
simonh wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, it 'just' saves your life. Oh well, if that's all...

Potentially saves your life if you're in a risk group with co-morbidities yes... Not downplaying anything here. Reducing the symptoms is great. But interesting also to not that we don't even knows why it does that: > The reason for the efficacy of the new mRNA vaccines is not clear. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MRNA_vaccine#Efficacy

Where do you get the idea that the vaccines only work on people who have co-morbidities? That’s certainly not the experience here I’m the UK. They seem to reduce the death and serious illness rate in otherwise healthy people just fine.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#115

Post by spurgu »

simonh wrote: post #114
spurgu wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Potentially saves your life if you're in a risk group with co-morbidities yes... Not downplaying anything here. Reducing the symptoms is great. But interesting also to not that we don't even knows why it does that: > The reason for the efficacy of the new mRNA vaccines is not clear. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MRNA_vaccine#Efficacy

Where do you get the idea that the vaccines only work on people who have co-morbidities? That’s certainly not the experience here I’m the UK. They seem to reduce the death and serious illness rate in otherwise healthy people just fine.

> Where do you get the idea that the vaccines only work on people who have co-morbidities?

How do you draw that conclusion? I never said that. Vaccines work across the board. But to illustrate an extreme, they do practically nothing to kids. For 80+ year olds they're miracle drugs.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#116

Post by volta83 »

disambiguation wrote: post #111
volta83 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just showed the data, and summarized that according to the data, people in the EU had better chances. I never claimed that this data is the result of COVID policies. This is something you made up, and then proceeded to debunk, which is essentially the definition of a strawman. Please stop building strawmans and putting words in people's mouth. It's unpolite.

So some one asks about the math on the success of lockdown policies, and you take the opportunity to do the math on... something completely unrelated? It's not clear you're making any claims at all, which begs the question why you bothered posting in the first place.

Its not completely unrelated.

Excess mortality is the only fact that we know for sure given that every country counts "COVID deaths" differently.

Given that there is a statistical difference, the only thing we can probably know for sure is that an individual chances were slightly better in the EU.

The difference is small, like others have mentioned, so it doesn't seem like EU policies did a lot for the whole EU.

This makes sense, since for example Germany had pretty harsh policies, but due some of its neighboring countries having pretty lax policies (e.g. Austria), some parts of Germany were extremely affected (e.g. Bavaria).

This hints that it doesn't really matter if single states have harsher policies as long as neighboring states do not, at least for states of the size of Germany.

If we look at China, which had a very cohesive policy in all its provinces, the story differs.

This hints that if cohesive policies would have been taken at EU and USA scale, the outcome might have been different.

That didn't happen, so we will never know for sure.

This doesn't answer the OP question, but if someone claims to have an answer, they are probably lying, because we don't really have facts to back that answer up.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#117

Post by taylodl »

adam_arthur wrote: post #109
taylodl wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Covid is here forever, and that's life. Good thing we didn't take that attitude with smallpox. Or polio. We have eradicated disease. It's not like we've never done this before.

Those diseases actually had high mortality rates, unlike covid. There's something called proportionate response. Personally I think policymakers should consider the actual pros and cons and the weight of them, rather than virtue signal as if everybody can be saved from every ailment, and acting as if second order effects don't exist. We also could have locked down every winter to save people from dying due to flu. Wh…

Because flu doesn’t fill our ICU’s to overflowing and burn out our medical staff. The number of deaths aren’t the only metric that should concern us.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#118

Post by Gibbon1 »

taylodl wrote: post #117
adam_arthur wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those diseases actually had high mortality rates, unlike covid. There's something called proportionate response. Personally I think policymakers should consider the actual pros and cons and the weight of them, rather than virtue signal as if everybody can be saved from every ailment, and acting as if second order effects don't exist. We also could have locked down every winter to save people from dying due to flu. Wh…

Because flu doesn’t fill our ICU’s to overflowing and burn out our medical staff. The number of deaths aren’t the only metric that should concern us.

Some nurse friends of mine say a bad flu season will strain the capacity of ICU's. Something people that want to 'live with covid' don't seem to consider.
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