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1700 Cascadia Earthquake

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Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#111

Post by Retric »

lambdasquirrel wrote: post #79
Retric wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is if the entire west coast adds up to 1 million people at the beach it might make very little difference which state their in. A 7pm July 4th quake resulting in a massive Tsunami would be vastly more deadly than an identical 4am quake the next day.

If there were ever 1 million people heading to the PNW coast collectively, even on 4 July, the PNW would know it. Routes like the 26 out of Portland or the redwood highway in Oregon / California cannot handle that much traffic. The road to Gerlach, NV gets jammed up by Burning Man traffic, so that should give a good estimate of how many people there can possibly be out there. Also, unlike in California or the East Co…

You misunderstood, natural disasters don’t care about state lines or even national borders.

It’s likely no one state adds up to 1 million people, but collectively people at in or near pacific ocean in the US, Canada, and Mexico are at risk. So, if you want to understand the risk from such an earthquake you add everyone together.

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#112

Post by e40 »

breakyerself wrote: post #58

Here is an excellent lecture on the subject from CWU professor Nick Zenter. If you watch this there is a good chance you'll decide to watch all of his lecture on the channel. Very enthralling. https://youtu.be/UJ7Qc3bsxjI

I watched this yesterday. It was quite interesting.

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#113

Post by 99_00 »

irrational wrote: post #103
99_00 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Its a colloquialism for destroyed That's debatable. It can mean anything from doomed to in trouble. IDIOMS FOR TOAST be toast, Slang. to be doomed, ruined, or in trouble: >Would you object if he said "utterly destroyed" instead? Yes I would object. Does it mean everything west of I5 is going to fall into the ocean? All human structures are going to be levelled? Only structures over 2 stories not made out of wood wil…

In Oregon, the land to the west of I-5 is clay silt from the Missoula Floods that came down the Columbia Gorge 13,000 - 15,000 years ago. The clay silt is expected to completely liquefy in the event of a major earthquake.

What impact do you think complete liquefaction will have on people and buildings?

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#114

Post by irrational »

99_00 wrote: post #113
irrational wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Oregon, the land to the west of I-5 is clay silt from the Missoula Floods that came down the Columbia Gorge 13,000 - 15,000 years ago. The clay silt is expected to completely liquefy in the event of a major earthquake.

What impact do you think complete liquefaction will have on people and buildings?

Widespread death and destruction. Seriously, other than the houses on Cooper Mountain, I don't seriously expect anything to still be standing in the Tualatin Basin when the big one hits.

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#115

Post by 99_00 »

irrational wrote: post #114
99_00 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What impact do you think complete liquefaction will have on people and buildings?

Widespread death and destruction. Seriously, other than the houses on Cooper Mountain, I don't seriously expect anything to still be standing in the Tualatin Basin when the big one hits.

Has there been another earthquake where a populated area sat on geography similar to the Tualatin Basin?

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#116

Post by rconti »

bombcar wrote: post #65
rconti wrote: post #63

I remember in early 2001, reading an article in the NYTimes or Seattle Times about the quake risk in Seattle, showing an easterly view of downtown from Puget Sound. In it, a line was drawn, showing a fault line, just about 4 blocks south of the Kingdome/Safeco Field area, along with the usual panic about how bad an earthquake could be in the region. This article and that image flashed through my mind when not more th…

California gets hit with earthquakes quite often, and so has been made more resilient. When a big one hits Seattle or the Midwest is when you’ll see untold damage. Just compare bridge pillars in various parts of the country.

Funny thing is, I moved to the bay area shortly after the Nisqually quake, and still haven't been in a "real" quake. I guess the closest was the Napa quake which was a 6.0 and ~80 miles away from my house on the peninsula. My home was built in 1947 so I'm sort of living under the "it's lasted this long.." premise w/r/t construction.

Couple other quakes happened since I moved here, but I was out of town for one reason or another. I even was in eastern France when they got hit by an extremely rare earthquake in ~2004.

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#117

Post by jschwartzi »

99_00 wrote: post #17
jschwartzi wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure I would call statements by a FEMA director "unscientific."

You aren't actually making a point. Are you saying that ""Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast" has scientific value? Are you saying that because of someone's tittle they are incapable of saying something hyperbolic? Do you disagree with my word use? What is a better word?

I was actually making the point that the FEMA Director for the Pacific Northwest probably knows a lot more about the scenario in question, and that his statement may be grounded very deeply in fact such that it's not hyperbolic at all.

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#118

Post by irrational »

99_00 wrote: post #115
irrational wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Widespread death and destruction. Seriously, other than the houses on Cooper Mountain, I don't seriously expect anything to still be standing in the Tualatin Basin when the big one hits.

Has there been another earthquake where a populated area sat on geography similar to the Tualatin Basin?

It will look like this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NSXmTfASM0

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