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Shipping containers are falling overboard at a rapid rate

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Re: Shipping containers are falling overboard at a rapid rate

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Box is way more fascinating than it has any right to be. It touches on basically every aspect of post-1950 world economy, history, urban planning, social changes, migration, etc.

Yes, absolutely. It absolutely hammered home for me the extreme value potential of even (seemingly) small logistical changes. It reminds me of a quote about warfare: "Amateurs talk about strategy and tactics. Professionals talk about logistics"

Isn’t there a quote along similar lines, “battles are won by soldiers, wars are won by food/supply”?

Re: Shipping containers are falling overboard at a rapid rate

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> drop in the ocean cough

My analysis of that analogy is that "ocean," being on both sides of the equation, simply cancels out, so basically it is saying that a 3000 shipping containers equals one drop. Which I'm not buying. :)

There are five oceans worldwide, though. So I would like to correct your calculation like this:

3000 containers/(1 year * 5 oceans) = 1 drop/ocean

Therefore 1 drop equals 600 containers/year.

Have a nice day and stay silly :)

Re: Shipping containers are falling overboard at a rapid rate

#113
post #10

To anchor discussion, prior to the rise of intermodal shipping containers in the '60s & '70s, cargo was shipped as breakbulk cargo. Losses from theft and damage were considerably reduced by switching from breakbulk cargo to shipping containers. Not the same as losing stuff over the side, but still a regular and somewhat predictable expense. One anecdote I remember from Levinson's book is about a scottish whisky disti…

Thanks for suggesting the book, added it to my list of things to read!

Re: Shipping containers are falling overboard at a rapid rate

#114

There are very big differences in captain papers around the world. It's a very know fact that e.g Mærsk has changed their top tier crew from being Danish to chineese, indian, phillipine etc. I am only implying that education might be part of it.

Forged certificates is indeed a problem in the latter countries, but whether Danish, Chinese, Indian or Filipino, they're all told by a computer where to put each container.

Some blame may lie with those who tell the computer how tall it should stack the containers, but another big problem in shipping is that stevedores in many ports simply can't be bothered to secure the cargo according to the instructions. Deck officers (even western ones) don't take the problem seriously, leave port in an unseaworthy state, and leave the able-bodied seamen with the dangerous task of re-lashing everything under way. That is if they can even reach the cargo, which is less likely on a container ship.

Re: Shipping containers are falling overboard at a rapid rate

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The mate who hit one in a yacht while mid Pacific begs to differ.

I wonder how many other hazards are out there. I have feeling it's small fraction compared to something like tree logs or g*d knows what else.

He has also hit a whale. He has had a lot of alarming things happen while out sailing. I learned to avoid going out with him.

Re: Shipping containers are falling overboard at a rapid rate

#116
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon's retail business (amazon.com) isn't even the majority of its revenue anymore.

I looked this up just to make sure — it definitely, definitely is the majority of their revenue . Net sales on Amazon.com for Q1 2021 were $75 billion. AWS and “other” combined were $19 billion. [1] As far as profit goes, you have a stronger argument — $6 billion vs. $4 billion for AWS alone. AWS has a 30% operating margin, jesus. [1] page 19 of https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_financials/2021/q1/...

That kind of makes sense, though. The tail risk of something like AWS must to be significant in comparison, so a hefty margin to insure against that seems reasonable.

Sale and distribution of things is probably much milder in its variations, and the expenses seem like they'd be more strongly correlated with revenue.

(All of this is a speculative attempt at explaining the figures, not an authoritative source on strategy. Say I have a 70 % belief.)

Re: Shipping containers are falling overboard at a rapid rate

#117
post #90
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Scottish distillers should just ship whisky in tankers a few million gallons at a time. Much more cost effective.

They should just build pipelines.

FWIW there have been vodka pipelines across the Russia-Estonia border at Narva, and from Belarus to Poland.

Re: Shipping containers are falling overboard at a rapid rate

#118
post #116
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I looked this up just to make sure — it definitely, definitely is the majority of their revenue . Net sales on Amazon.com for Q1 2021 were $75 billion. AWS and “other” combined were $19 billion. [1] As far as profit goes, you have a stronger argument — $6 billion vs. $4 billion for AWS alone. AWS has a 30% operating margin, jesus. [1] page 19 of https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_financials/2021/q1/...

That kind of makes sense, though. The tail risk of something like AWS must to be significant in comparison, so a hefty margin to insure against that seems reasonable. Sale and distribution of things is probably much milder in its variations, and the expenses seem like they'd be more strongly correlated with revenue. (All of this is a speculative attempt at explaining the figures, not an authoritative source on strate…

Why would the tail risk of AWS be so high? Apart from the economic troubles of COVID which increased online buying, normal periodic economic downturn would be expected to hit all retail businesses fairly hard. Amazon's non retail unit AWS grew significantly throughout the 2008-2010 economic downturn.

Re: Shipping containers are falling overboard at a rapid rate

#119
I am wondering, why it's talking about the absolute number of 3000 containers, but not mentioning if or how the shipping logistics evolved in that time. It could as well be, that shipping simply increased over years, could it not?

edit: According to https://stats.unctad.org/handbook/MaritimeTransport/Indicato... container shipments increased steadily over years.

Re: Shipping containers are falling overboard at a rapid rate

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Logistics entrepreneur here. I'm keeping that quote! Apparently Robert Hilliard Barrow (1922-2008), USMC four-star general. Added to https://github.com/globalcitizen/taoup

One interesting take I’ve read on that quote is that you need to consider the source. If you’re a general for a country that routinely deploys troops to the other side of the world, in the service that specializes in landing those troops on a hostile beach with no friendly infrastructure, in a milieu when it is no longer considered acceptable to supply your troops by allowing them to pillage the countryside, you are…

It's not just remote deployments where it matters.

There is no deployment scenario that is not heavily dependant on logistics. This is more true in protracted land deployments of troops across large distances, not less so. No matter the strategy, logistics must match it or success is significantly more difficult.

Take Napoleon w/ Russia, where Napoleon's ambition out ran his logistics. His strategy and tactics had yielded results until then, and despite a large effort to supply his troops, he was woefully under prepared and in the end it was his logistics that failed him: Russia's retreating scorched-earth strategy meant Russia was retreating into friendly territory with resupply, the French were extending into a no man's land. The Napoleonic forces originally outnumbered Russian forces about 2.5 to 1, but forced marches through barren terrain and cities left stripped of resources, ahead of their supply lines and the limited supply buffer they'd planned, resulted in failure. 200,000 troops, about 1/3 of his total, died from starvation or froze to death, far more than actually died in battle. Napoleon won or fought the Russians to a standstill in pretty much all battles, yet lost the war for lack of supply and other planning for the rigors of campaigning in that area of the world.

A few thousand years of military history offer plenty of examples of what happens when a force fails to consolidate gains and outruns or otherwise has inadequate supply lines. This is has not changed from ancient times through to modern warfare.

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