CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving • Hacker News Board

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#111

Post by quadrifoliate » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 8:36 PM UTC

mrshadowgoose wrote: post #76

endisneigh wrote: post #6

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

You can, today, go to Pheonix Arizona, download the Waymo One app, and summon a full self driving vehicle. This happened silently at the end of 2020, and was overshadowed by the ongoing pandemic doom and gloom. https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-dr... On the subject of danger. Literally everything we do is dangerous to some degree. Everything. Self-driving does not need to be perfect, but only…

> You can, today, go to Pheonix Arizona, download the Waymo One app, and summon a full self driving vehicle.

Consider Google's (okay, Alphabet's) standards for success though.

My guess is that a metro area with less than 0.5% of the US population does not qualify as a successful product. Maybe as a successful small beta test.

Also, given Arizona's overly cozy relationship with self-driving [1], I would not necessarily trust a program too much on the basis that it's operating there.

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[1] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/28/uber-ariz...

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#112

Post by sjg007 » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 8:38 PM UTC

choppaface wrote: post #82

All of the big players in self-driving have shown that while they can try to solve the tech problem, nobody can solve the team problem. Self-driving brings together people with very diverse backgrounds (perception, planning, controls, hardware, safety, rideshare product, etc), very diverse incentives (established automakers vs start-up founders vs VC investors), and throws them in a pot with a huge amount of money an…

Does Waymo have product market fit? I know you can ride around in one in Phoenix and they are learning how to manage those vehicles with remote assistance as necessary but is that sufficient?

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#113

Post by tdhz77 » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 9:02 PM UTC

xnx wrote: post #36

tdhz77 wrote: post #21

Self driving is not possible without changes to infrastructure. We know this because NHS tried in 1960’s and was able to succeed with this approach. Government will have to solve problem first. How? Installing sensors on our highways that cars can use. Anything this big in scale can’t be solved by the private sector alone, you also need better infrastructure.

There were a lot of things that weren't possible in the 1960's that are possible now. Highway driving is the easiest type of driving. If Waymo wasn't limiting their driving to specific areas, I have no doubt their Driver could easily drive through the US interstates without issue.

That just isn’t true. Computer technology hasn’t come as far as you want to believe. 144 characters isn’t a technological revolution.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#114

Post by jeffbee » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 9:09 PM UTC

choppaface wrote: post #82

All of the big players in self-driving have shown that while they can try to solve the tech problem, nobody can solve the team problem. Self-driving brings together people with very diverse backgrounds (perception, planning, controls, hardware, safety, rideshare product, etc), very diverse incentives (established automakers vs start-up founders vs VC investors), and throws them in a pot with a huge amount of money an…

Don't these facts prove the opposite of your claim? You want to build a company with a culture that extends beyond individuals. All of these people left Waymo and the project is still robust. That's exactly what you want! Did you think Google was dead when Craig Silverstein left?

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#115

Post by chubot » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 9:13 PM UTC

mrshadowgoose wrote: post #76

endisneigh wrote: post #6

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

You can, today, go to Pheonix Arizona, download the Waymo One app, and summon a full self driving vehicle. This happened silently at the end of 2020, and was overshadowed by the ongoing pandemic doom and gloom. https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-dr... On the subject of danger. Literally everything we do is dangerous to some degree. Everything. Self-driving does not need to be perfect, but only…

Can you really? I remember that announcement and there was a lot of fudged language. You have to be a "member of the public service". You can download the app because it's in the app store, which is not the same thing as hailing a driverless vehicle.

It's not clear that member of the general public can actually sign up for it. Has anyone done that and taken a driverless ride in Phoenix? Happy to get more updated info / be corrected.

(And if this seems like a unreasonable amount of suspicion, I invite others to go back and read their press releases from the last 3 or 4 years, and tell me if that gives you an accurate picture of where the service is today)

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#116

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 9:17 PM UTC

endisneigh wrote: post #6

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

[deleted]

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#117

Post by ripper1138 » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 9:18 PM UTC

joefourier wrote: post #50

Some comments are saying self-driving cars are not currently possible and that Waymo isn't successful, but aren't they currently available to the public in some areas in Phoenix, with no safety drivers? There may be many limitations, but self-driving in sunny flat suburban areas would already cover a decent portion of the American market. Sure they might not be ready for chaotic, busy city centres or regions with har…

I encourage you to watch a video of a current Waymo ride in Phoenix. In one ride I watched, the very first turn it made out of a parking lot should have been a left turn, but it turned right instead and went through residential streets to get back in the right direction.

It is nice that they have deployed to the public, but I doubt anyone capable of driving themselves will use it any time soon if it can't even make left turns.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#118

Post by ubercore » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 9:19 PM UTC

mrshadowgoose wrote: post #92

endisneigh wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On the subject of automation. Humanity is on track to have the computational power to perform whole brain emulation decades before 2100. Even if we don't solve the general AI problem through other pathways, we will solve it through this path. Ethical problems aside, once this is achieved, everything will be automatable at a human level of competence. Is this actually true? I haven't heard of this. You're saying we…

Yes, and the methodology I've described (whole brain emulation/WBE) is the worst-case, brute-force, but guaranteed approach. The following diagram captures the expected growth rate of computing power, and contrasts it with several thresholds (in blue) for emulation fidelity ultimately required: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#/media/File:Who... The human brain works, therefore this technique will work, i…

This sounds bonkers to me. We don't even understand fully what it would take to emulate a brain right now. I don't believe this for one second.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#119

Post by Tomte » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 9:20 PM UTC

adewinter wrote: post #74

adewinter wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? Monorail trains (like at the airport) Combine Harvesters Airplane Autopilot/autoland Elevators

Literally any operational (and unattended) machine in a modern factory

Factory automation usually has fail-stop behaviour (in process automation like chemical plants, things get more interesting).

And resumption of operation after an emergency stop happens only after a human check and intentional operator acknowledge.

So you're technically right, but the circumstances are vastly different. Nobody will buy a car that does a full emergency brake whenever a leaf falls off a tree. The environment is so much more difficult on the street than in a factory.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#120

Post by TheMagicHorsey » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 9:21 PM UTC

ChuckMcM wrote: post #102

Having read hundreds of these sorts of CEO leaving letters I'm a bit jaded and cynical. If you're interested in what I see when I read that message, I rewrote it[1] in more plain language. Google demands a lot of its "other bets" companies. Some might say it asks too much. Mostly it seems to me that they want a 'moonshot' company that has the original profitability of search advertising, full stop. And while it would…

This is the funniest thing I've read in a while. And potentially true.