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Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

reuters.com

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Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#111
post #93
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccine production started way before the Phase 3 results were out. You cannot know ahead of time for which vaccines you should make a strong bet. Now we can prop-up production of the successful vaccines and they are doing so. Anyway, getting the first vaccines is always going to be zero-sum for the same reason getting first-row in a concert is zero sum.

"You cannot know ahead of time for which vaccines you should make a strong bet." Actually you can. When dealing with a pandemic causing the level of disruption we've seen, you throw money at propping up production of every serious vaccine candidate, hoping that at least one of them works out.

Yeah, overpaying and betting on 20 candidates in parallel is the reasonable thing to do, even if you're cynical enough to not care about the loss of life or health.

Every additional day of lockdown probably costs as much as the entire production lifecycle of a vaccine, including distribution.

I think the EU economy contracted at least 5% in 2020. The EU GDP was $18.3 tn, so 5% is about $915bn. That's $2.5bn per day (!). And that's just the direct impact, the whole psychological, PTSD, etc. longer term impact probably makes that higher, I'd be shocked if the total cost isn't something like $3bn per day.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#112

With the number of lockdowns in Europe it feels like a spit to the face for all of the businesses and tax payers in Europe. Even throwing more money at the problem sounds better than not doing anything but I wish the EU would have forced Pfizer/Biontech and other pharma companies to just produce the vaccine en masse. This is a war time and only those that cant fight back are forced to suck it up.

I would really like that leend that the EU didn't buy enough vaccines to die. Even before they ordered, after what I would calla media campaign, a couple of hundred million doses more, the EU had more the 4 doses per EU citizen, incl minors, on order.

From all suppliers with potential vaccines in the pipeline. There was no way to tell which vaccine would be ready first. e.g. the Sanofi one, also an mRNA vaccine, will not be ready before 2022 it seems. Sanofi will produce the Pfizer / Biontech (?) one from summer onwards. Just thrwong money at the production doesn't ramp vaccine production over night. Case in point the reduced deliveries from Pfizer due to capacity increases and temporary shutdowns at their Belgian site.

This is not a quantity issue, it is a distribution issue. And distribution is not the EU responsibility. Right now people are, rightly so, frustrated by the way the vaccination campaigns are running, especially in Germany it is a mess.

First culprit: The manufacturers -> the media in germany sided with Biontech and declared higher availability if the EU just ordered. The result: Culprit 2

Second culprit: The EU because it didn't order earlier -> Order volumes were increased, which led to temporary shutdowns of manufacturing sites to increase capacity. The result: The EU said "sorry, we made some mistakes, but now enough is on back order to get everyone an opportuniy till summer. And by the way, vaccination campaigns are the memeber states responsibility". Step in culprit three in Germany

Third culprit:The federal government. A nice one, as vaccination is a state thing over here and not a federal task. Still, allocation and call ups are going through the federal government to the EU and manufacturers. The result: They implemented a task force at the federal level. Still no increase in daily vaccinations in most German states so far.

Likely forth culprit (and now we are getting closer to the truth): The state governments. Why? Because the EU was very straight forward from day one that once the doses have been delivered to the member states its responisbility ends. They also stated the logistics and distribution will be critical. And that part is so clearly lacking, from appointment management to vaccine availability of the already manufactured and delivered doses. Until now, as that point is not yet really discussed publicly, we have no real improvements.

IMHO, things will get better once traditional vaccines will be available en masse. Then we can use well established supply chains for existing vaccines, e.g. the flew and other standard stuff, done by local doctors. I would also suspect, that once htis starts to work, Biontech/Pfizer and Moderna to find ways to allow the sae doctors to use mRNA vaccines safely and reliably.

Until then I am afraid it will be more a blame game than anything else. And this is the real tragedy here.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#113
post #99
post #10

The Google COVID-19 statistics for Israel show that cases and deaths are declining, but not at a faster rate than elsewhere in the world. Reported deaths lag behind sometimes for weeks and new deaths were caused by infections weeks ago, so vaccination may not have much effect on deaths, yet. But the number of positive tests should have gone down considerably with 50% of the population vaccinated. Are all these aympto…

Israel has many different population groups. The Haredi population is acting like covid doesn’t exist and has insanely high numbers of cases. I suspect that despite the vaccine working well on your everyday science-trusting Israeli, the Haredi population is throwing off the average significantly. Source: I have family there. Recently the police tried to enforce the lockdown Bnei Brak (a city with a lot of Haredis). T…

downtote. This is anti semitic. A fringe minority rioted. It's far too simplistic to say that covid is simply being ignored.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#114
post #29
post #17

As I understand, for example in Europe Pfizer is producing vaccines in single factory and not in sufficient number. Why production doesn't happen in more places? Couldn't they sell license to other European pharmaceutical companies to produce it? Is production process so unique it can't be replicated in other places?

I've been wondering this myself too. Lockdowns are so expensive that I'd assume every unconventional method to expand the production is taken into use. The situation is bad but not so bad that competitors could be forced to work together it seems. I expect that the amount of angry people in EU will peak in spring or early summer when UK, US, and Israel are mostly back to normal and we are not.

Yes, I was wondering that very much myself. I remember talks about ramping up production preemptively, starting from spring, to have large stock of vaccine available when they are approved. Bill Gates talked about that specifically, taking like first 5 most promising vaccine candidates and starting production ramp up immediately, even risking the possibility they will not be approved and wasting some money. I thought "Finally, some good strategy". Money risked with such an approach would still be minuscule compared to losses due to pandemic and covid relief funding. But looks like that didn't happen, which is just another sign how badly world handled the pandemic. There's an article related to this: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SruhzksSgHWSuxm7b/covid-bill...

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#115
post #93
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccine production started way before the Phase 3 results were out. You cannot know ahead of time for which vaccines you should make a strong bet. Now we can prop-up production of the successful vaccines and they are doing so. Anyway, getting the first vaccines is always going to be zero-sum for the same reason getting first-row in a concert is zero sum.

"You cannot know ahead of time for which vaccines you should make a strong bet." Actually you can. When dealing with a pandemic causing the level of disruption we've seen, you throw money at propping up production of every serious vaccine candidate, hoping that at least one of them works out.

We have already done so, the first production was potentially at a loss if the Phase 3 results were not good. And we have done so for each vaccination effort out there. So there is already a lot of oversupply we may be throwing.

To be clear, I agree that the return on investment of a quick and successful vaccination campaign is so big that it makes sense to aggressively bet on it. But I also think the evidence shows we have bet quite aggressively on it, at least to unprecedented levels.

What I cannot comment on is how much better we could have done, the supply chain and logistics of producing 1 x (world population) for each candidate vaccine in the hopes at least one of them works and we can roll-it out quickly are so ridiculously complicated I don't know how it could have been made to work. I fear I would just be misdirecting my frustration with the current situation and an incomplete understanding of the problem from the comfort of my armchair.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#116
post #93
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccine production started way before the Phase 3 results were out. You cannot know ahead of time for which vaccines you should make a strong bet. Now we can prop-up production of the successful vaccines and they are doing so. Anyway, getting the first vaccines is always going to be zero-sum for the same reason getting first-row in a concert is zero sum.

"You cannot know ahead of time for which vaccines you should make a strong bet." Actually you can. When dealing with a pandemic causing the level of disruption we've seen, you throw money at propping up production of every serious vaccine candidate, hoping that at least one of them works out.

Aside from that: The US, UK and Israel have all proven that it is possible to do better than the EU here. They didn't know as well and ordered way sooner and more. AFAIR the UK even recently claimed that they vaccinated more people than the EU even in absolute numbers.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#117
post #17

As I understand, for example in Europe Pfizer is producing vaccines in single factory and not in sufficient number. Why production doesn't happen in more places? Couldn't they sell license to other European pharmaceutical companies to produce it? Is production process so unique it can't be replicated in other places?

Derek Lowe has a nice short article explaining how the mRNA vaccines require very specialized manufacturing processes that are a bit of a bottleneck. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/02/my...

Lowe ascribes the speed of vaccine development to mRNA vaccine technology. Given that adenovirus vector and inactivated virus vaccines were also developed within a year, this seems to me to be simply incorrect:

> mRNA as a vaccine technology has been worked on for some twenty to twenty-five years now, from what I can see, and (as I never tire of mentioning) we’re very fortunate that it had worked out (and quite recently) several of its outstanding problems just before this pandemic hit. Five years ago we simply could not have gone from sequence to vaccine inside of a year. And I mean that “we” to mean both “we the biopharma industry” and “we the human race”.

By far, the longest step in development was running the trials, not actual development of the candidate vaccine itself.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#118
post #30

Israel feels like the only nation taking the importance and urgency of vaccination seriously. Here in Europe, articles are coming out complaining that the slow vaccination could be harming the economy which, well, fucking duh. ( https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/154626/c... ) Fast rollout. Involve pharmacies. Involve the army. Distribute widely and efficiently. Prepare for months before the vaccine…

India. It is an enigma that why is India's response to Covid-19 gets ignored. India to date has vaccinated more people than Israel and has one of the least CFR per capita.

Now I will get downvotes from India, but let's try:

It is percent of population that matters not absolute number of vaccinated people. Israel is near 70%, while India is only 0.5% [1].

CFR per capita, while looks good (113.97 deaths per million) is not actually good compared to Mongolia (0.62 deaths per million)[2]. You know, who else is doing well - Belarus (195.31 deaths per million). I don't believe Belarus numbers as all countries around are burning (500+ deaths per million). Could it be that India is faking it as well? Based on corruption index [3] it is even worse than Belarus.

sources:

[1] https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=gbr&are...

[2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#119
post #17

As I understand, for example in Europe Pfizer is producing vaccines in single factory and not in sufficient number. Why production doesn't happen in more places? Couldn't they sell license to other European pharmaceutical companies to produce it? Is production process so unique it can't be replicated in other places?

Biontech is ramping production at a new site, Marburg in germany I think (too lazy to Google right now). Sanofi will start manufacturing in summer as their own mRNA vaccine is delayed.

As all ramp ups, I don't care that much about initial speed, but rather about how fast the goal, in our case a vaccination rate of 60+%, is reached. Justhaving doses produced isn't any good when these doses aren't getting into peoples arms.

Re: Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine

#120
post #10

The Google COVID-19 statistics for Israel show that cases and deaths are declining, but not at a faster rate than elsewhere in the world. Reported deaths lag behind sometimes for weeks and new deaths were caused by infections weeks ago, so vaccination may not have much effect on deaths, yet. But the number of positive tests should have gone down considerably with 50% of the population vaccinated. Are all these aympto…

> But the number of positive tests should have gone down considerably

> "Israeli study finds 94% drop in -> SYMPTOMATIC Asymptomatic cases still spread the virus.

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