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Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

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Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#111

Texan here. I tried, on Thursday, to buy a space heater; not only was the hardware store out, they told me a list of other places around town that were also out. Most homes use natural gas for heat, but I think a lot of space heaters are probably turned on right now. I also have to wonder how an everyone-videoconference-from-home society changes electricity usage? Not saying it has a significant impact, just wonderin…

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Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#112
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$0.05 to $0.10/kWh seems like normal pricing. Average US house uses ~1100-1200 kWh (I don't actually know this, based on googling, assuming most places in Texas are standalone houses) per month. If prices are $3000-9000 per MW, then ~40 to 60 kWh/day (let's be generous, people are explicitly turning on heat for this extreme cold) for a week... Even $2/kWh (which was exceeded days ago) would demolish peoples' budgets.

Those prices are far below normal prices. Normal is 28-50 cents in places like San Diego ( https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/energy-green/s... ).

CA power is hilariously expensive compared to the rest of the country. 10c is much closer to average.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#113
post #81

It's curious that the current tide of public opinion reckons that we're all going to be in EVs in 10-15 years, when the grid nearly collapses under the weight of everybody plugging in a heater and turning on Netflix at the same time.

Not exactly public opinion when places like California are manadating it

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#115
post #31

Natural gas prices have been absolutely wild the past few days. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/weekly-natural-gas-prices-so... If you're not used to their bizarre units of volume the key takaway is this: Quantities of gas that usually sell for ~ $3 were selling for over $300 on Friday/Saturday.

How isolated are different natural gas networks in the US?

Virtually everything is interconnected [0], but some regions are more connected than others. All the producers and consumers know how much it costs to ship to/from different hubs, including Asia and Europe, and will do so very quickly whenever it becomes economic.

As you can probably tell from the wikipedia graph, the gulf is heavily plumbed. In addition to the shipping and processing in the gulf, there are also massive storage caverns [1] that can buffer most swings in demand. Different US regions have their own storage hubs [2] but the reason that lots of natural gas-related prices have "Mont Belvieu" in the name is that Mont Belvieu TX is basically the biggest storage hub and serves as the benchmark for everyone else.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_pipeline_system_in...

[1] https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2015/10/19/...

[2] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_stor_wkly_s1_w.htm

Edit: wikipedia has a pretty good overview here, but it is a little dated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_storage

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#116
post #6

Texas is shockingly green when it comes to power. The windmills have frozen and it is the winter when there isn't as much sun. Most people are on a contract with fixed pricing, but some startups like Griddy are hurting people's wallets. We will likely see some retail electric company bankrupcies. Some of the electric providers are paying customers to move to someone else on Monday. The Joke is all the Californians wh…

Griddy literally emailed every customer yesterday and told them to switch providers asap.

I hope they get some sort of a surcharge for this. Part of what you pay for with a big utility is for them to eat weird price fluctuations. Getting grid pricing just when it's convenient is cheating the system.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#117
post #55

Weird.. you'd think with the AC demand in the summer they'd have enough capacity for winter..

IIRC air conditioning is generally less demanding because you’re ‘only’ trying to drop the temp by ~30F to get back into the 70s on a hot 100F day, whereas for heat you’re trying to increase by a much larger 50-70F on a cold 0-20F day. I’m sure wishing the house was better insulated today (Austin).

Air conditioning can also be more than 100% efficient (from the point of view of the heat in the room), because it's moving heat from inside to outside. If you're using electricity to heat your house, it's only 100% efficient because each kw is being dumped directly into the air. This is why heat pumps are so great, they're basically just ACs in reverse, so for 1 kwh of electricity, you'll get more than 1 kwh of heat in the air of your house.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To fix that, you need significant overprovisioning or alternate means of generation. They have alternate means of generation... natural gas. There is a big problem with wells shutting down due to the same extremes which shut down wind. Which has caused shortages of natural gas which is doubly problematic because it's also used extensively for heating. What do you do when your backup power is vulnerable to the same…

Do such nuclear power plants exist? I was under the impression that they provided consistent, baseline levels of power in most circumstances.

You can definitely ramp up and down power generation at nuclear plants. Whether that makes sense economically is another question.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How isolated are different natural gas networks in the US?

Not a direct answer, but you can adjust the active layers on https://www.eia.gov/state/maps.php to show pipelines. It's pretty well interconnected.

Connections only halfway answers it capacity is also a big part of this.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#120
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Texas griddy exposes you to real time spot pricing. I was frequently getting paid to use electricity at night due to excess generation by wind. As an electric car owner this was fantastic as I frequently got paid to recharge my car. My average delivered rate before this week was 7c/kwh all in.

Does anyone there get a battery system, like a Tesla Powerwall, to save up negative priced night electricity to use in the daytime?

It doesn't happen enough that I've seen to make it worthwhile
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