Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption • Hacker News Board

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#111

Post by davidhbolton » Fri, Jan 22, 2021, 8:47 PM UTC

mywittyname wrote: post #79

99_00 wrote: post #2

I don't understand how this can happen. An equilibrium seems more likely to me. If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive. Also, government depends on all the taxes they put on combustion vehicles. As those revenues decline they may choose to get that money from electric vehicle drivers under the guise of 'congestion' taxes or such.

> If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive. If gas prices fall any lower due to demand, then production capacity will probably disappear permanently, leading to shortages and a huge, long-term rise in price. Oil pumps aren't like taps that can be shut off and powered back on demand. They basically need to be operated continuously b…

I think the petrochemical industry might disagree with you there. Sure petrol/diesel for transport will decline but pharmaceuticals, plastics and many more items are made that way and they are not going away. This site has a big list. https://www.ranken-energy.com/index.php/products-made-from-p...

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#112

Post by throw0101a » Fri, Jan 22, 2021, 9:38 PM UTC

seanalltogether wrote: post #41

dm319 wrote: post #3

The UK plan for no ICE vehicles to be sold by 2030 is fairly ambitious. I'm seeing more and more electric vehicles on the roads, but I think some regular customers will be disappointed by how poor the infrastructure is. Not only that electric chargers aren't as prevalent as they need to be, but the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city), but an even bigger problem is the h…

The number of people in the UK and Ireland that have to park overnight on the street is way too high to start banning ICE vehicles within the next decade. Electric infrastructure isn't enough, they will have to completely revamp entire neighborhoods to provide space for permanent and predictable overnight parking for residents.

> The number of people in the UK and Ireland that have to park overnight on the street is way too high to start banning ICE vehicles within the next decade.

You're not wrong (and I too am a "garage orphan"—neither a garage or even a driveway), but there are some options being developed. The YT channel Fully Charged featured two a while back:

* Street lamps: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKaEhBjt1ls

* Pop-up charger: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Frkw6aurVUY

I'm a bit skeptical.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#113

Post by throw0101a » Fri, Jan 22, 2021, 9:42 PM UTC

rasz wrote: post #96

r00fus wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Might be based on something like this: https://thedriven.io/2020/03/24/siemens-converts-all-lamp-po...

unguarded $100 worth of charging cable dangling from every street post? what could possibly go wrong?

Reasonable concern, though:

1. If every car has one, they become a commodity, so how much value will they actually end up having?

2. There are locking cables available:

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKaEhBjt1ls

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#114

Post by marvin » Fri, Jan 22, 2021, 9:58 PM UTC

sandworm101 wrote: post #107

ajross wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd want to see numbers for that argument, because I don't think I'm willing to buy it on assertion. A single, routine, boring 100A building drop is enough to charge 4-5 cars (i.e. "one station worth"), and those wires and infrastructure are already there, and have been for decades.

Tesla superchargers take about 40 minutes to deliver an 80% charge. Call that a "full" tank. A gas pump can do the same in about 5 minutes (probably less). So to charge/fill the same number of cars per hour as one gas pump you need 8 superchargers. That's a significant increase in real estate area needed. Another approach: A top-end Tesla supercharger delivers around 250kW. So eight of those would be 2000kW or 2 Mega…

This line of reasoning is incorrect. Unlike fossil refuelling, the vast majority of EV charging happens at home. This charging does not load public charging stations at all. Unless your needs are esoteric, you might only charge at a public charging station one out of twenty times.

Of course some homes don't have private charging easily available, but that's a different argument.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#115

Post by julienb_sea » Fri, Jan 22, 2021, 10:00 PM UTC

Electric cars are perfectly pleasant to own as a second car or if you very rarely take long road trips.

If it's very cold or very hot, if you drive to the mountains or rural areas for pleasure, range anxiety is a serious problem. Waiting for a re-charge is ok if you have access to Tesla supercharger speeds. Forcing this lifestyle change on everyone is absolutely insane.

The climate imperative is poor reasoning because this will be a significant increase in electricity generation demands. Renewables alone will not be able to keep up, so we will need to increase fuel based generation of electricity, which is less efficient as an overall usage of fuel for transportation versus an efficient hybrid vehicle.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#116

Post by 99_00 » Fri, Jan 22, 2021, 10:01 PM UTC

ogre_codes wrote: post #44

99_00 wrote: post #2

I don't understand how this can happen. An equilibrium seems more likely to me. If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive. Also, government depends on all the taxes they put on combustion vehicles. As those revenues decline they may choose to get that money from electric vehicle drivers under the guise of 'congestion' taxes or such.

> If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This isn't entirely true. The cost of gas has a hard floor due to the cost of extracting oil from the ground. Nobody is spending $40 a barrel to extract oil that's selling for $25 a barrel. So if oil demand falls and prices fall, many of the current sellers pull out of the market entirely. On top of that, as the number of cars going to gas…

>This isn't entirely true. The cost of gas has a hard floor due to the cost of extracting oil from the ground. Nobody is spending $40 a barrel to extract oil that's selling for $25 a barrel. So if oil demand falls and prices fall, many of the current sellers pull out of the market entirely.

Not all producers have the same cost. Saudi Arabia is the cheapest I know of at $2.80 per barrel. Others can be 10 times higher or more.

Is $2.80 the floor? Maybe not, since SA is a monopoly and can manipulate the price.

I think the point is that we can both agree on is that it's a complex dynamic system, with lots of variables and interconnections, and it reacts to changes.

>Saudi Aramco, the monopoly oil producer in Saudi Arabia, boasts an extraction cost of about $2.80 a barrel

>A geographical comparison from the annual reports of four major international oil companies shows that production costs in Russia were about $22 a barrel

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/by-pumping-at...

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#117

Post by random5634 » Fri, Jan 22, 2021, 10:01 PM UTC

gregkerzhner wrote: post #27

strict9 wrote: post #7

I rarely drive, but can't wait to own one. Where I live (and for a lot of people who live in cities) there is only on-street parking. Will be interesting to see how increased electric vehicle ownership might happen for people without a garage or designated parking.

This. Curios to hear about people's experiences owning an EV without access to a charger at home.

I looked into this very closely and opted against it.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#118

Post by p1mrx » Fri, Jan 22, 2021, 10:04 PM UTC

ajross wrote: post #104

sandworm101 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> And charging stations are, of course, absolutely dirt cheap to build relative to fuel stations. Really? A normal gas station can handle around 100 cars per hour using a handful of pumps and is refueled by daily deliveries from a big truck. Simple. An electric charge point capable of that will require a massive amount of electricity, electricity delivered over wires. Look into how much it costs to run such a servic…

I'd want to see numbers for that argument, because I don't think I'm willing to buy it on assertion. A single, routine, boring 100A building drop is enough to charge 4-5 cars (i.e. "one station worth"), and those wires and infrastructure are already there, and have been for decades.

100A at 240V can charge 4-5 cars... in about 12 hours. That would be useful at a hotel or workplace, but it won't replace a gas station.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#119

Post by gonehome » Fri, Jan 22, 2021, 10:06 PM UTC

julienb_sea wrote: post #115

Electric cars are perfectly pleasant to own as a second car or if you very rarely take long road trips. If it's very cold or very hot, if you drive to the mountains or rural areas for pleasure, range anxiety is a serious problem. Waiting for a re-charge is ok if you have access to Tesla supercharger speeds. Forcing this lifestyle change on everyone is absolutely insane. The climate imperative is poor reasoning becaus…

It's wild to me that no other car manufacturers have taken Tesla up on their offer for supercharger access.

EVs without supercharger access are strict city cars.

The electrify america network sucks, non tesla range is mostly bad (with a small number of exceptions). Even with decent range, lack of supercharger access makes the car a non-starter.

I think Tesla's advantage here remains huge, I think legacy car companies are in trouble (and this is even ignoring their inability to write or ship software). The dealership model of legacy car companies will also be a big problem for them and will continue to hold them back.

That said, I think ultimately forcing the EV switch makes sense and with something like supercharging in place is viable. Battery capacity will continue to improve, charging rates will continue to improve. Pushing this shift makes sense.

It just might be that legacy car companies are too dumb to do it properly and will cede a lot of the market to Tesla (and maybe Apple).

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#120

Post by zaroth » Fri, Jan 22, 2021, 10:06 PM UTC

bad_alloc wrote: post #15

I just got a Renault Zoe 2020 last December and it's been great. Commuting to work and going to the shops is just as comfortable as with a combustion engine. No gas station visits and even with the high cost of electricity in Germany (0,3€/kWh) it's still worth it. Only when driving longer distances (>250km) you need to plan ahead for charging and trips take longer (1-3 hours).

That is really expensive electricity. Does anyone and everyone with the ability to finance solar panels just install them pronto, or do you not have net metering?