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London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

hsj.co.uk

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Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#111

Work places remain open. People continue not to wear masks with impunity. Closing schools will help a bit. But I doubt it will reverse the spread, it wasn't enough for the old covid 19, let alone the new strain.

Closing schools did help a lot last spring: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/15/scie...

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#112
post #52
post #33

And yet we still have idiots here in the UK saying things ranging from: * coronavirus is invented as a government power grab * the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses * the government should just let this run its course, it’s Just A Flu TM * hospitals are actually empty (the “proof” being people recording empty waiting rooms in outpatient departments on bank holiday weekends) * coron…

NHS is overwhelmed every winter if the hyperbolic headlines are to be believed

Just to flesh this out, the NHS could use more money, but it's worth saying that it's the only European healthcare system I'm aware of so fragile. If you ask a lot of British people they seem to think that the only alternative is the wild west found in the US, rather than the other healthcare systems in Europe.

There was a good piece in the private eye a few years ago listing headlines saying the NHS is doomed tomorrow going back to before Blair.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#114
post #2

I believe certain hospitals are already at the stage of queuing ambulances outside and are breaching the four hour wait times. This is a consequence of loosening the lockdown for Christmas.

Maybe - but the numbers have been going in this direction since October https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

How much of that is the new strain, how much is Christmas, and how much is government decisions (reopening universities, encouraging office workers to work in person, allowing foreign holidays, announcing an end date for the second lockdown before it had even started...) is hard to say.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#115
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are probably living in two different worlds. There is reality and there is the world you live in. In real world it is not the restrictions that save lives, it is people following them. If people ignore restrictions it doesn't matter whether they were or were not tightened. Actually, if people were sane we would not need restrictions. Everybody would wash their hands, avoid touching their face, wear their mask prop…

Following your nonsensical logic there would be no difference in covid cases between states or nations. Obviously this is not true. It is absolutely the government’s job to enact policy to slow the spread of deadly disease. It is also the job of governing leaders to encourage and educate citizens on how and why they should comply with these policies. This is where the USA is failing miserably. We could discuss the tr…

Every nation spends their Christmas differently. And the rise in cases will also heavily depend on what was done by the government before the Christmas, so no, not every country will see exact same increase in cases.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#116
post #33

And yet we still have idiots here in the UK saying things ranging from: * coronavirus is invented as a government power grab * the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses * the government should just let this run its course, it’s Just A Flu TM * hospitals are actually empty (the “proof” being people recording empty waiting rooms in outpatient departments on bank holiday weekends) * coron…

What do you gain by insulting them and calling them idiots? What if it just makes them even worse? Not saying they don't fit the definition... but maybe the reaction doesn't actually help.

[deleted]

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#117

If a mutant strain of COVID-19 becomes twice as deadly, this "merely" doubles the pressure on hospitals. A constant factor like this can be dealt with. However, an increased rate of spread (R factor) is a change in the parameter of the exponential curve, and cannot be dealt with by any sub-exponential response. The only thing that could possibly work is to change the factor. Rapid vaccination or lockdown. It's imposs…

> People are concerned about the lethality getting worse, but they shouldn't be

They should. Lockdowns deal with the exponential phase, but in the long term the process is not exponential. The virus is probably going to infect half of population anyway. There simply aren't ten times more people it could infect. On the other hand, there are ten times more people it could kill or cripple.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#118
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Near as I can tell things are pretty wide open here in Iowa. We even had the honor of getting an Atlantic scare article of "This is what happens when government does nothing" Turns out what happens when government does nothing is things are perfectly fine.

4000 deaths in Iowa. 127 per 100,000 people in Iowa http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states&... Compared to 70 per 100,000 people in California. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-...

Isn't that better than the US average?

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#119
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the government should just let this run its course Isn't it just an opinion? I personally think that way. Why wouldn't I be allowed to think that?

You’re totally allowed to have that opinion and other people are totally allowed to think it’s idiotic, unless I’m missing you’re point?

Because it's a value judgement and one at least worth considering so it's not idiotic. I mean maybe the decision to lockdown for many many months is better but we are least need to try to estimate how many lives it saves in comparison to just letting it run and hope big the economic cost is.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4000 deaths in Iowa. 127 per 100,000 people in Iowa http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states&... Compared to 70 per 100,000 people in California. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-...

So roughly one death for every thousand people in Iowa. That's sad, but the vast majority of people who died this past year died of something else.

> the vast majority of people who died this past year died of something else.

Given that no single cause of death is more than 50% of deaths, this is true for any cause of death.

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