Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high • Hacker News Board

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#111

Post by matwood » Sat, Dec 26, 2020, 12:13 AM UTC

SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #29

ALittleLight wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel we (US) should absolutely be closing the border to the UK, Japan, Italy and whoever else has the new strain/variant. Why would we wait on this when the evidence suggests the new version is more infectious?

There must be some very special political reason for keeping borders with UK open, so even Fauci seem to approve it. I wonder what is it?

What I’ve seen discussed is that closing borders only works if it’s done totally and immediately. Otherwise, it just slows response and causes super spreader events like we saw early this year in the US.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#112

Post by totaldex » Sat, Dec 26, 2020, 12:13 AM UTC

CWuestefeld wrote: post #96

How is this news at all? The virus has been mutating and throwing off different strains all along. There are entire websites devoted to tracking these, e.g., [1] Perhaps this is just the normal operation of American media to exaggerate the negative side of the situation? [2] [1] https://nextstrain.org/sars-cov-2/ [2] PDF link: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28110/w281...

The title requires context - although given recent events we can infer that it is referring to the specific mutation seen in the UK. This particular mutation is of note since it has postulated as being more transmissible than other variants.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#113

Post by howlgarnish » Sat, Dec 26, 2020, 12:14 AM UTC

starkd wrote: post #78

GregarianChild wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Copy Taiwan. No country has been dealing better with Covid than Taiwan. No lockdown, and > 200 days without new Covid case [1]. Taipei had daily direct flights from Wuhan, and the Diamond Princess mooring near Taipei. They told the world early on [2] how they did it. Summary: Border closure, contract tracing, testing and controlled quarantine for those testing positive . It's worth reading [2] to realise how swiftly,…

that's because it's an island. All the islands are doing better than whole continents. You can't contain it unless you go full bore like the chinese - locking people into their homes.

Sigh, this old canard again. Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Singapore are all doing fine without "locking people into their homes" and they're not islands.

(Ok, Singapore technically is an island but it's connected to Malaysia by the world's busiest border crossing; and Thailand's grappling with a new outbreak now but it seems to be improving.)

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#114

Post by jdminhbg » Sat, Dec 26, 2020, 12:20 AM UTC

howlgarnish wrote: post #113

starkd wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's because it's an island. All the islands are doing better than whole continents. You can't contain it unless you go full bore like the chinese - locking people into their homes.

Sigh, this old canard again. Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Singapore are all doing fine without "locking people into their homes" and they're not islands. (Ok, Singapore technically is an island but it's connected to Malaysia by the world's busiest border crossing; and Thailand's grappling with a new outbreak now but it seems to be improving.)

> Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia

I guess perfect covid policy is contagious!

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#115

Post by Pyxl101 » Sat, Dec 26, 2020, 12:23 AM UTC

GregarianChild wrote: post #61

bredren wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any new precedent for completely closing borders between developed nations for any reason is bad. Because it creates a “we did this before.” Even if the scale or details of circumstance are different—such as Clinton’s pardoning of his brother in minimizing Trump’s choices. Another reason is exceptions cause outrage. And there may be many instances of diplomatic or other government travel that needs to happen or happe…

Could you elaborate by which moral principle you come to the conclusion that a vague slippery slope and even more vague outrage is more important than stopping a pandemic with hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths? Most moral systems of my acquantance are based on a hierachy of values that puts saving human lives over just about anything.

I don't necessarily subscribe to this point of view (I don't know what I believe; I need to think more), but allow me to play devil's advocate consider: most of the people who die from this disease are old people who have already lived their lives. The young are giving up the opportunity to live their lives by staying home to stop the spread, when they predominately aren't at risk of death. Should the young give up their lives to save the old? The young already sacrifice substantially for the old - in the United States by way of Medicare for example. The lives of many young people are completely on hold: they cannot go to school, cannot have weddings, cannot have fun, all to stop a disease that for most not-old healthy people is similar to the flu or even milder. If you're a young person you might not find this to be a worthwhile sacrifice - sacrificing years of your life to save people who have already lived "full" lives (that would be longer if not for COVID, but have made it to old age).

The vast majority of deaths are people over age 55: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Ag...

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#116

Post by ethbr0 » Sat, Dec 26, 2020, 12:24 AM UTC

CWuestefeld wrote: post #96

How is this news at all? The virus has been mutating and throwing off different strains all along. There are entire websites devoted to tracking these, e.g., [1] Perhaps this is just the normal operation of American media to exaggerate the negative side of the situation? [2] [1] https://nextstrain.org/sars-cov-2/ [2] PDF link: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28110/w281...

Not sure Japan Times [0] qualifies as "American media."

[0] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/about-us/

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#117

Post by nabla9 » Sat, Dec 26, 2020, 12:27 AM UTC

rolph wrote: post #2

Mutation is simply a loaded term for variation, nothing horrible or shocking is happening. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25538675 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation

This is incorrect.

Mutation and variation are different concepts.

Mutations affect the single organisms. Variations happens between individuals, groups or populations of an organism.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#118

Post by Izkata » Sat, Dec 26, 2020, 12:33 AM UTC

carlmr wrote: post #90

bumbada wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have over 80 different COVID vaccines today if you look at the COVID vaccine tracker. Next year it will be at least 120. In Spain alone they have 3 different vaccines that are not even in phase 1, but will be next year. There will be at least 5 totally different technologies against it. There are "slower to market" technologies than RNA but stronger and proven. Also the weather is going to get better in the North…

>Also the weather is going to get better in the North Hemisphere soon January is colder than December usually. We're not even over the peak. February should be roughly similar to December, March is when it gets better again usually. But that's still 2 months of people staying indoors a lot.

Barring post-Thanksgiving spikes, cases in the US Midwest have been dropping since mid-November. And the spikes didn't even show up in all those states. Seems like places are getting past the peak already despite the temperature still dropping.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#119

Post by lbeltrame » Sat, Dec 26, 2020, 12:36 AM UTC

ethbr0 wrote: post #6

> The people who tested positive with the new strain, which is said to spread more easily and was blamed for a recent spike in infections in the U.K., returned to Japan this month — two at Tokyo's Haneda airport and and three at Kansai International Airport in Osaka. This is talking about the SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 variant [0], aka B.1.1.7., aka carrying the N501Y mutation. No news here, other than confirmed spread…

N501Y itself has already appeared around the world. By itself, it does look that it is not more transmissible (see Prof. Francois Balloux's Twitter for some explanations). The deletion, again by itself is not new, and also in this case it doesn't seem it has (on its own) increased fitness over the others.

N50Y has also a similar antibody neutralization profile as the non-mutated version.

Of course, these data refer to the mutations on their own, not together.

More on the deletion (on its own, again): while it is supposedly tied to a faster entry into the cells (twice as efficient in experimental assays), it look like it has lower fitness in absence of an ongoing immune response (it would lower in presence - but not disappear - in the immunocompromised patient it was first found into between treatments with convalescent serum).

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#120

Post by jackmodern » Sat, Dec 26, 2020, 12:42 AM UTC

CWuestefeld wrote: post #96

How is this news at all? The virus has been mutating and throwing off different strains all along. There are entire websites devoted to tracking these, e.g., [1] Perhaps this is just the normal operation of American media to exaggerate the negative side of the situation? [2] [1] https://nextstrain.org/sars-cov-2/ [2] PDF link: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28110/w281...

Bingo, media overhyping this thing at every turn.