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How much does it cost to send 1kg to lower earth orbit?

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Re: How much does it cost to send 1kg to lower earth orbit?

#111
post #70

It just isn't plausible that Starship launch costs for LEO could be 1/28th the costs for Falcon Heavy. This sounds like more Musk optimism to me.

Saying it just isn't plausible that ambitious thing will happen without an argument for why it won't happen... doesn't really lead to an interesting conversation. Especially when all the arguments for why it is possible already exist in public forums. I mildly disagree with you, but I can't even begin to take the other side of the argument without knowing why you think the price estimates given aren't plausible (or e…

The reason I thought it was implausible is because in my experience, such dramatic drops in price never happen in only a few years.

The other responses did help clarify how it can occur with Starship.

Re: How much does it cost to send 1kg to lower earth orbit?

#112

I was wondering, so in case you were too, that other recently introduced rocket that has a <$5k/kg launch cost is the Russian Angara A5. It has flown twice. Falcon 9 has flown over 100 times. SpaceX really does have an incredible lead on the competition.

The dataset doesn't include options to buy during a good chunk of 1990-s a Proton launch for some $30 millions. That's a carrier with upwards of 20 tons payload capabilities to LEO. Soyuz rocket family also has periods in history when prices were quite low; SpaceX phenomenon touches only the last 10 years at best - and it's in last 10 years when Proton became particularly unreliable and Soyuz maybe more expensive.

Re: How much does it cost to send 1kg to lower earth orbit?

#113
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Artemis != SLS. Artemis is a program for which the SLS and other vehicles are under development. SpaceX and other commercial launch providers are also being engaged by the Artemis program to develop vehicles. While Starship (and maybe New Glenn) does look more attractive than SLS now, a effort as large as Artemis is more concerned with capability than immediately driving the cost down. SLS is a capable vehicle moved…

The SLS is an badly designed architecture built on obsolete technologies with very limited capabilities. SRBs greatly increase launch costs while reducing safety. RS-25s were designed to be reused, but required such extensive refurbishment that they were like drag racing engines requiring full rebuilds after every race. Using hydrogen to fuel the first stage required building a massively heavy cryogenic tank, impairi…

These are all fair criticisms of SLS. Given SLS’ limitations, it will require multiple launches to get everything needed to land and return the moon mission. At the same time, the speed of SpaceX’s success wasn’t a given when SLS was initiated. I don’t think NASA/government in general has the appetite for direct risk that SpaceX represents. However, that hasn’t stopped them from hedging low-risk high-cost with generous bets on SpaceX.

Let’s say you’re a member of congress accustomed to how programs work and someone says to you, pay me to make a rocket that is totally reusable to make the moon so cheap that tons of people will do it.

For one, cheap? Full stop. In whose interest is it to make space exploration cheap? Does the government want access to space cheap enough that someone might do something destabilizing or disruptive in any way?

Ok, let’s skip past cheap and the Congress-critter looks at the shiny Starship and asks, “How much stuff can it take to the moon?” The answer is “lots if we figure out orbital rocket refueling, otherwise nothing.” To get into TLI and beyond, SpaceX or somebody needs to figure out how to do that. Sure there have been some experiments, but nothing concrete yet.

Ok, you skip past the sci-fi orbital refueling and the suited person says, “I love it and I’ll vote for it, but tell me where all is it going to be built so we now which senators will speed this along.” You say, well, design and manufacturing in CA, and a KSC processing facility, engine tests in Central TX countryside and a new space-port in Boca Chica. Response is “oh come on man—CA, FL and TX already have tons of stuff going on and their reps won’t care about something this small! We need Idaho, Missouri, Mississippi, the kinds of places where a rep will burn down their grandma’s house for a project this size. Come back when you have a real plan.”

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