Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

glinden.blogspot.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

111–120 of 418 posts

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#111

Post by outworlder »

jnwatson wrote: post #95
dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

Facebook's Quest 2 is an impressive piece of tech. One of the biggest reasons to be skeptical of VR taking off is that Facebook is one of the major players. Between the login shenanigans and their anti-competitive dealings with developers, they have an opportunity to single-handedly tank the industry.

It's the ONLY player on the "stand-alone" headset space.

There's some competition on PC headsets, Rift headsets are not even the best, feature-wise. But just like the quest, they score very high on the cost-benefit analysis (I guess we pay with a combination of cash and data).

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#112

Post by dougmwne »

ehonda wrote: post #25

I think mobile phones will become the standard VR devices most people will opt to use with a headset that you insert the phone into, esp as phones become increasingly advanced, due to it being the cheapest option for most people.

I doubt it because I think a successful VR headset will have 6dof room scale tracking, hand controllers, and facial expression tracking. That will takes several well positioned cameras, plus additional cameras for eye and face tracking. I think they will be standalone devices that will potentially include AR at some point and even replace phones.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#113

Post by [deleted] »

binarymax wrote: post #7

Technology is not the problem. Flashback to 1995. I'm a 17 year old PFY invited to beta test a VR headset from a local company. My Uncle was an investor and I was technically savvy and the target market. I had a copy of Descent that supported VR, and while it was a bit of a hassle to get setup, I got it working. The experience was incredible. After the first use I said to myself "this is the future". I had permission…

[deleted]

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#114

Post by nitrogen »

jnwatson wrote: post #95
dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

Facebook's Quest 2 is an impressive piece of tech. One of the biggest reasons to be skeptical of VR taking off is that Facebook is one of the major players. Between the login shenanigans and their anti-competitive dealings with developers, they have an opportunity to single-handedly tank the industry.

I think Facebook is in VR because they don't want the Metaverse to belong to anybody but them.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#115

Post by babyshake »

dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

With everything happening with major movies going direct to streaming, I actually am expecting a big development somewhat related to VR in the next year or two. It's a device much smaller than a VR headset you wear on your face that gives you a theatrical quality audio-visual viewing experience, and only allows you to purchase/rent and not sideload anything. I'm thinking it could sell for around $500 and I'm pretty sure there's a company in Cupertino taking a close look at this.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#116

Post by Impossible »

Estimates of total hardware sales vary depending on what is considered VR hardware, but most estimates I've seen have worldwide unit sales at around 5-6M in 2020.

His sales estimates are a little low, unless he's only including PC VR. PSVR alone has sold ~5M units by most estimates. In the most recent Steam hardware survey, about 2% of users that completed the survey have VR devices, which is roughly another 2M users. That doesn't include Quest and Quest 2 sales (many people never use the link cable), or the few Rifts out there that aren't on Steam. So while it's highly unlikely that 6DOF VR devices have sold 10M units, its likely cleared 8M units and could easily surpass 10M in 2021.

The biggest issue right now is lack of software. There isn't much to play at all in VR, and there are very few great VR titles and only a handful of good ones. For HN commenters that want the infinite screen experience, I unfortunately believe that will be relatively niche (you sell to a bunch of programmers) and none of the current players are really focused on enterprise as games have been the stickiest thing so far. Quest 2 is pretty high resolution and eventually a tracked keyboard and infinite office will ship, so it might still be the best option for a while for people looking for VR productivity.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#117

Post by Torwald »

binarymax wrote: post #7

Technology is not the problem. Flashback to 1995. I'm a 17 year old PFY invited to beta test a VR headset from a local company. My Uncle was an investor and I was technically savvy and the target market. I had a copy of Descent that supported VR, and while it was a bit of a hassle to get setup, I got it working. The experience was incredible. After the first use I said to myself "this is the future". I had permission…

You can do have a sort of VR studio akin to a gym. The spots in these "gyms" would accommodate for everything that is needed, space and equipment wise.

That would solve the problem the parent is stating.

Monthly membership. You go there to play, later to socialize at the "space bar" exchanging tales of lore with other like-minded people.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#118

Post by outworlder »

binarymax wrote: post #7

Technology is not the problem. Flashback to 1995. I'm a 17 year old PFY invited to beta test a VR headset from a local company. My Uncle was an investor and I was technically savvy and the target market. I had a copy of Descent that supported VR, and while it was a bit of a hassle to get setup, I got it working. The experience was incredible. After the first use I said to myself "this is the future". I had permission…

> So I invited them over that weekend. And that's where the problem set in. When one person was using the headset, they were gone.

That sounds like a "not enough headsets" problem.

Also, that is like lamenting the lack of co-op split-screen games. Many games supported that mode back in the day, they don't anymore. Because people are either playing over the internet OR bringing their own consoles.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#119

Post by dudeinhawaii »

I don't think it's been mentioned enough that VR doesn't fundamentally bring anything new to the -gameplay- table. There are some 'experiences' that are better, like piloting games since they play to the "sit here and look around" model, but that places VR in the same category as a really awesome flight stick, steering wheel, or the Kinect.

Mobility is a huge problem that needs to be solved. Until then, VR will be a peripheral like the Kinect, great for one-off interactive experiences involving your full body... but never able to deliver truly transformational gameplay.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#120

Post by qznc »

dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

Flying simulators seem make a comeback and they sound great for VR. MS Flight Simulator was well received. A colleague of mine praised Star Wars Squadrons as a great VR game.
Post reply on HN