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San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

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Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#111

Post by matz1 »

sidibe wrote: post #61

I understand the sentiment, but I think it's pretty clear in retrospect hard lockdowns were the correct way to address this. This half-assed "wear a mask and social distance if you want" stance just made the economy sputter for a whole a year. I've seen this in France twice, where they've oscillated between doing nothing and doing a lot, a couple brief lockdowns can reverse things quickly even after things have gotte…

What do you mean by "correct" ? It is correct if you assume the hard lockdown doesn't have any downside.

The lockdown is not necessary in the first place.

In most places, hospital are not overloaded. Even in the event of overload, the correct measure should be to increase capacity, do not admit people with mild symptoms, etc.

Case number are misleading, vast majority of the case are not actually sick or only have mild symptoms.

Better test needed to be identify people who actually sick and need intervention.

If anything the lockdown could cause hospital overloaded due to delayed treatment and nurses being furloughed.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#112

Post by mdale »

It falls a bit into the trap of assuming people operate with a level playing field of information though as other mention in thread it's deeply refreshing to see a public official act with some humility and respect for it's citizens.

Issue is we live in times of asymmetrical informational warfare.

So we can't just provide strong data and recommendations while limiting intervention relative to respecting freedom.

Consider how we decreased cigarette smoking via reasonable science driven laws around indoor rules that impact health of others ... and yes graphic commercials of the health consequence which can only be described as full scale information warfare.

Would need an accelerated program along these lines to regularly show people suffering in this health crisis to help drive / scare people into doing the right thing.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#113

Post by jusonchan81 »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #80
sidibe wrote: post #61

I understand the sentiment, but I think it's pretty clear in retrospect hard lockdowns were the correct way to address this. This half-assed "wear a mask and social distance if you want" stance just made the economy sputter for a whole a year. I've seen this in France twice, where they've oscillated between doing nothing and doing a lot, a couple brief lockdowns can reverse things quickly even after things have gotte…

In Asia hard lockdowns aren’t seen as a silver bullet, and some countries like Korea never really had one. Centralized quarantine and mandatory symptom checks are believed to be comparably important.

South Korea did have a near perfect compliance in wearing masks outside of your home. I think that’s what helped them keep it fairly under control for such a populous country.

Just to be clear - it was near perfect and not 100%

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#114

Post by remote_phone »

mlyle wrote: post #58
tayo42 wrote: post #21

Seems like he's being contrarian at times. > what we have before us is a symbolic gesture, it appears to be style over substance I think the problem with being idealistic is people will see this leader,(especially in liberal mecca that is the sf bay area or how ever those people talk now) will latch on to this as a reason to do keep acting irresponsibly and justify their behavior. > Less overall mobility, means less…

> Like is missing a year of 4th grade going to be a problem for anyone? Yah. There's a whole big subset of the population that barely manages to stick with school at baseline. Educational interruption in other circumstances has been shown to have bad outcomes. We're trying to do better this time, but the school system as a whole is overtaxed. I'm a middle school teacher. Even with best practices for remote education,…

Of course you will see negative impacts this year. Online education sucks. But assuming kids are back in school September 2022, will there be lasting effects? No. If there are gaps, they will be addressed because all kids will have suffered the same thing, it’s not like the one kid who got mono and missed 3 months of school by herself.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#115

Post by s1artibartfast »

tayo42 wrote: post #21

Seems like he's being contrarian at times. > what we have before us is a symbolic gesture, it appears to be style over substance I think the problem with being idealistic is people will see this leader,(especially in liberal mecca that is the sf bay area or how ever those people talk now) will latch on to this as a reason to do keep acting irresponsibly and justify their behavior. > Less overall mobility, means less…

>This comes off as dramatic. Like is missing a year of 4th grade going to be a problem for anyone? I barely remember school up until 11th grade at this point. Generations? Why is he saying that?

A year off probably won't have much impact on children with families with the capability to care for and educate them at home. This is not the case for all demographics. For some students, a year off school literally means nutritional insecurity during a time when brains are developing and the only stable environment they have is gone.

My friend is a first grade teacher and has about 5 students who are homeless. It shouldn't be a shock that they are not attending class via zoom.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#116

Post by x3n0ph3n3 »

jeffbee wrote: post #103
daveFNbuck wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in San Mateo county, and am interested in knowing what to do to stay safe. This is the first I've heard about limiting outdoor recreation to within 5 miles of my home. I haven't been notified about any of the details of any of the lockdowns. In the Spring, I encountered a group of people who had just been released from jail during one of my monthly shopping trips. Despite having just been in government custody…

You're confused because the county health information system is being mismanaged and misused as a blog by a crank. He doesn't allow anyone to send public information on his behalf and he requires all of his writings to be distributed verbatim[1]. That's why they all read like incoherent rambles. It's also why every one of his messages begins with the instructions to "reread my previous statements below", because he's…

I think you confuse clarity with oversimplification. Nothing he's written so far makes him sound like a crank.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#117

Post by EdwardDiego »

rlt wrote: post #19
sbeller wrote: post #11

Great read. (resident in San Mateo County here) I personally think the whole country should focus more on the greater good for everyone by culling the virus instead of doing this open-nd-close back and forth juggling, as to optimize for the best outcome available (similar to New Zealand). But then again I am not well versed on the Nash equilibrium when it comes to highly infectious diseases.

For better or worse it’s simply not in America’s collective nature to obey authority on the scale you’re hoping for.

Not really in the nature of NZ, either. Our cultural heroes often feature a sense of "bugger them" if they're not inventing something.

* Hone Heke, kept cutting down a flagpole to mess with the British

* The Southern Man popularised by a beer company, who prefers the company of his horse.

* The Good Keen Man popularised by Barry Crump, who prefers the company of the hills and his rifle.

* James MacKenzie, a sheep rustler who ended up with a sizable part of the South Island named after him (the MacKenzie Country)

* Edmund Hillary travelling to the South Pole by tractor "accidentally on purpose" when he was supposed to be laying out supplies for a British Lord's expedition.

However, what we have in our culture that the US seems to lack (from my _very_ distant POV) is a slight tendency towards collectivism over individualism.

Maybe it's from our long gone years as a "cradle to the grave" social democracy, maybe it's from the emphasis on mateship.

Maybe it's because we don't really like interpersonal conflict. (How do you know a Kiwi didn't like their meal in your restaurant? We haven't figured that out yet).

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#118

Post by jeffbee »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #99
jeffbee wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We do know the risk factors. It's a respiratory disease that spreads when people who are breathing are near each other. We don't need a random control trial to tell us that practicing with your brass band can spread it. The solution is to stay very far from everyone until the disease is wiped out. Only very intelligent libertarian contrary Americans think we don't have the information we need.

That is not very helpful advice when you have to manage risk while trying to eat, work, live, and stay healthy. Stats certainly exist on where some of the 16,000+ cases in San Mateo were transmitted.

Exactly what information do you lack? If you are hungry eat at home. Work at home if possible. Exercise at home. "Live" is too vague to address.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#119

Post by gnicholas »

This will provide an interesting experiment since San Mateo County and Santa Clara County are adjacent, demographically similar, and are pursuing different courses of action.

But analysis will be complicated by the porous border. There will presumably be even more people coming into SMC from SCC to patronize businesses that are more open than those in SCC.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#120

Post by EdwardDiego »

xfitm3 wrote: post #48
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only trick is how you convince everyone to comply. Translate that to: how do we crush the poor, destroy livelihoods and deprive children of education? Compliance, knave!

I despise lockdowns and my state won't enforce them. I am so thankful to be in a level headed state. Forcing people into poverty is just as bad or even worse as getting a virus. In my area beyond after the initial reopening its business as normal. Everyone is having parties and celebrating, living a normal life.

How many excess deaths is a party worth?
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