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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#111
post #99
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An excellent point. How many people are/were barely attached to the banking system? Especially if you’re working, well, a bit under the table, in day labor situations like construction or office cleaning. I got my stimulus check. Basically immediately. Because I have a standard 9–5 salaried job with direct deposit, so the government knew exactly where to send the money. But that seems to obviously not have the force…

It’s based on IRS direct deposit.

…yes, and? I said that. Quote:

“salaried job with direct deposit”

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The “reasonable taxes” in many places depend on large-scale transfers at the state/federal level from places like SF. But this pandemic is going to be crushing state and municipal budgets across the country, and many of the worst-hit places will be rural and exurban.

You seriously think that everywhere in America with reasonable tax rates is just getting fiscal transfers from SF?

Personally I don’t think “low taxes” are “reasonable”. We live in a complicated society and we all benefit when we collectively pay people to do a huge variety of important jobs which are hard to fit into a pure-profit system. Cutting funding for those exposes us to a wide variety of risks and eliminates many future opportunities, in the long term harming us all. The Covid pandemic is a perfect case study in the way that e.g. public health infrastructure, expertise, and political support can save hundreds of thousands of lives. (While we are talking about San Francisco here, it’s worth noting that SF and the Bay Area has done by far the best of any US city / metro area at containing Covid and preventing needless deaths of residents, despite some failure especially early to properly target testing resources toward poor/minority areas full of “essential workers”.) But infectious diseases are only one of the many risks that individual people cannot adequately understand and protect against on a personal basis, for which it helps to have collectively funded public institutions.

Instead of income or property taxes, some places raise money via sales taxes instead, or other regressive schemes. Some places raise money by questionable fines on their own residents. Some places make money off the back of wanton environmental destruction.

Some just accept shoddy local services. (When you compare the US to other wealthy nations, it’s really shocking how poor our basic infrastructure and public services are, even in the richest US states and cities.)

But most low-tax areas of the US are substantially supported by federal-level transfers, for example from federal highway budget, from military bases and defense contracting located there, from federal agriculture subsidies, from federal welfare and healthcare funding, from social security payments to people who retired somewhere different than they lived while actively working, ...

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#113

I live in a state where we are suddenly inundated with California’s refugees, fleeing the state now that they don’t have to physically live there. Reasonable taxes, a much less stressful work-life balance, bigger homes all make it very appealing to ditch the once0golden state. Our company has decided not to reopen a majority of it’s office space. Ironically, the Bay Area office is remaining open while other offices a…

It takes some time to get a feel of the culture of a new place, but trust me as someone that has lived in a few other states, it eventually makes a big difference. California has dramatically out performed other states, and is more expensive because it was working, in part because of the culture that is unique to California.

I live in NYC and lots of friends have left town for upstate New York or similar places. But I'm waiting to see how great they think these places are after they have eaten at the same 5 restaurants for a year. And once live culture returns to NYC and other places, how will they feel then?

Of course, the other way to look at the de-campers is that they were going to move to the burbs inevitably. Which good for them, but cities are injured, not dead.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... Wait, what would you expect the mayors to do about it? Use their dictatorial mayoral powers to force people to extend leases or the city’s infinite funds for a stimulus or bailout? The federal government and to some extent the states have the money and power; expecting a mayor to wave a magic wand and fix it is, well... optimistic.

Seriously? How about do what mayors have done for centuries: find ways to encourage investment and movement into the city. Business seems to be moving to places like Austin. Why do you think that is?

You seriously do not think San Francisco and New York have attracted business development?

This is yet another version of the classic “No one goes there anymore, it’s too crowded”

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#115

If this trend continues, I wonder if these office spaces can be converted to apartments. SF is in desperate need of living space

Right now it isn't -- if you look on Zillow, apartments are in places about 10 deep trying to be rented. There are also a bunch of new apartment buildings that came online, and are sitting basically empty.

But yes, your statement is true. What SF needs is a revamp of its zoning and "neighborhood preservation" policies that are not setting it up for resilience against things like this.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#116
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, we need at least another 6 trillion. Maybe 20 trillion. Why stop there? We should quadruple the money supply maybe, we need to protect commercial real estate investors, after all. ... and then in 2021 we can all scratch our heads and wonder why income inequality is worse than ever, and despite all this spending, we didn't even make an appreciable dent in the impact of Covid-19 on public health.

Why not just print 1 million dollars per person and end poverty in one fell swoop? If there are no consequences for printing 3 trillion, why not print 300 trillion?

This is the worst strawman argument I've ever seen. The problem is precisely that corporations (especially badly managed ones) have been able to bleed the stimulus coffers dry, and they will continue to do so, because we have a system of government which caters to them.

Direct payments and rent forgiveness are not "printing money", they are limited, specific relief packages targeted at people in need. These are people who are about to be evicted, homeless, in medical debt, etc. These people need help, or the consequences will wreak havoc on a colossal scale.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... Wait, what would you expect the mayors to do about it? Use their dictatorial mayoral powers to force people to extend leases or the city’s infinite funds for a stimulus or bailout? The federal government and to some extent the states have the money and power; expecting a mayor to wave a magic wand and fix it is, well... optimistic.

Seriously? How about do what mayors have done for centuries: find ways to encourage investment and movement into the city. Business seems to be moving to places like Austin. Why do you think that is?

Honestly, I can’t imagine that commercial real estate or cafes and restaurants and similar are doing so great in Austin right now, either. For the moment, commercial real estate and businesses dependent on office workers will be suffering pretty much everywhere.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#120

If this trend continues, I wonder if these office spaces can be converted to apartments. SF is in desperate need of living space

The UK authorised this, years ago, because it's obvious that our economy is transforming so that fewer shops and offices are needed but the population is still growing.

The homes built under these rules are generally poorer quality, they tend to be smaller and more expensive to run than an otherwise equivalent new build home. But they are homes, and it's not as though San Francisco has too many of those.

At the extreme of what can be done, Birmingham is a British industrial city, and once upon a time as it began to take off there was enormous pressure to build homes so they constructed what were called "Back to backs". These were groups of homes packed together "back to back" so that you only had windows facing out one way, the other three sides of your home were walled in by other housing. They were squalid and almost all of them were torn down, although the World Wars diverted resources so that the last of them ceased to be homes only in the mid-20th century.

But historical preservation means Birmingham still has one set of Back to Backs, most of which is a museum you can tour to see how they were lived in during different periods, but one home was instead converted into a fairly nice two person overnight apartment you can hire. They plumbed a modern bathroom with shower and toilet, kitchen and so on, and of course in the 21st century we can light interior spaces cheaply and easily so it doesn't feel permanently gloomy, also of course it's just one couple in a double bed for one or two nights, whereas these would have been homes for families of eight people for a lifetime...

So yes, if there's money you can add everything. A Back to Back as constructed has zero running water, let alone sewage, unlike an office building so they'll have had to use modern narrow bore sewage pumping and other expensive tricks to make it work, but if the building would otherwise sit empty...

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