With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

Post by ogre_codes » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 5:51 PM UTC

hinkley wrote: post #92

ogre_codes wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough on all points. Electrification is the longer term existential threat. Even if 20% of vehicles are electric, the impact on demand and oil prices will be profound.

You might sum it up as: These countries weather boom/bust cycles in oil prices, waiting for a 'someday' to refill their coffers, and every year there are more and more things trying to put off 'someday' a little longer. Essentially these countries have an antagonistic relationship with the rest of the world, as do quite a few corporations really. If you only get good news when everyone else gets bad news, then you've…

Post by prepend » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 5:53 PM UTC

mancerayder wrote: post #73

samstave wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recall that quote. Sadly, while prescient that quote is - he still is (has?) done nothing to mitigate its reality?

Dubai, as far as I've heard, has no oil left. It's tourism, finance and other industries unrelated. So in that sense haven't they?

Post by mostlysimilar » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 6:02 PM UTC

hnarn wrote: post #80

tomcooks wrote: post #49

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Emir of Dubai

While I understand the point he's trying to make, I'm not sure I understand how it can be true unless the underlying point is the classical one about how your children will inevitably squander your wealth. Even if your wealth comes from a business that is only temporarily viable, your wealth will persist even if the underlying business does not, if it's conservatively invested. Additionally, rich people have no probl…

Post by slim » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 6:05 PM UTC

yumraj wrote: post #38

One of the things I've always wondered about when Arab countries run out of oil, and now with cheap oil, will it, at a macro level, result in lower Islamic terrorism or higher? Argument for Lower : State sponsors, and rich individual sponsors will have fewer funds. There may be local revolutions resulting in more democratic governments. Higher: There will be instability due to rising poverty with many people turning…

Post by hnarn » Tue, Jul 21, 2020, 6:09 PM UTC

mostlysimilar wrote: post #115

hnarn wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I understand the point he's trying to make, I'm not sure I understand how it can be true unless the underlying point is the classical one about how your children will inevitably squander your wealth. Even if your wealth comes from a business that is only temporarily viable, your wealth will persist even if the underlying business does not, if it's conservatively invested. Additionally, rich people have no probl…

It seems to me to be expressing a point about the nation in general. Sure, he and his family are probably fine for generations. It makes a lot more sense when applied as a trend for the average citizen of the nation.