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Friends don't let friends get into finance

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Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right - but the finance sector wasn't chosen at random to receive a bailout because of 'craziness'. It was bailed out because it's dysfunctional. And now, people in the financial industry expect it to get bailed out when it screws up, since that's what's happened time after time. Whereas people joining startups have no such expectation. If you don't seriously expect Facebook to get bailed out it's not a particularly…

I am guessing (and apologies if I'm wrong) that you've not worked in finance else I don't think you wouldn't paint the entire industry with such a broad brush. I don't disagree with you that a lot of stupid, ignorant and misguided things happen in the industry, but in general, I find that the "Wall St is bad" rhetoric is easy to get wrapped up into because it is fashionable and easy to do. But nevertheless, I'll go b…

Equally relevant: if the government thought that Facebook had weapons of mass destruction, they'd topple Zuckerberg.

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ended?

According to NBER, the recession ended in June 2009. http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html That's roughly the point where GDP growth became positive again. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&... [edit: can't respond to your post, but June 2009 is also the time period when industrial production and retail sales started growing, and when the stock market recovered. http://research.stlouisf…

Funny - according to the very report I just quoted that positive GDP growth in 2009 is due only to growth in the financial industry which makes up for the declines other sectors are still seeing.

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#113
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I wanted long-term exposure to the S&P 500 then I would indeed do that. I have bought and shorted SPY (which has a fee attached) as a part of short-term pairs trades. My point is simply that for years, fund managers such John Bogle have made a big deal about the fact that an efficient market doesn't allow stock picking funds to beat the cheaper index funds, etc, etc. True enough, but the next logical step is to dr…

I think you are referring to an ETF?

SPY is the largest ETF, and follows the S&P 500, which is why I mentioned it. I trade lots of ETFs. Short term, they allow individuals to use hedge fund-style strategies. Long-term, they are essentially the same as mutual funds. Very-short-term, they allow quants to make money on arbitrage. There is no good reason for their existence, honestly.

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#115
post #26
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...and economists will tell you something completely different. His points are awful and rely on no empirical evidence.

The difference being historians have facts to go by, and economists have dreams.

Implying economists use anything but data in developing macroeconomic forecasts is just absurd. Give it a rest.

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does a massive bail out 'keep the system in check'?

On the contrary, it encourages disfunction. "Let us remove the consequences of your failures." Gee, I wonder if that memory will make them so grateful that they'll be more careful next time? Sure. It's not like their whole industry is about predicting risks and rewards based on past experience. Bah. The mistakes will be repeated and the bailout question will arise again. And it will be worse next time. We should have…

You guys are hilarious with your chests puffed out screaming about death to the financial players who were in trouble. Have you considered the massive negative shock to liquidity that would have resulted?

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase etc. deal with an inordinate amount of the world's liquid assets. If they had failed, the problems wouldn't have been a few quarters of negative GDP growth--we could have seen the collapse of financial markets everywhere along with prolonged global depression. Should we have had the guts to deal with that too?

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#117
post #29

I'm of the opinion this understates the problem. First, it is an ethical problem. The idea of producing things is not taught in elite colleges, nor is the idea that it is possible to make a positive contribution to society (e.g. rms) without becoming superrich (no offense to those for whom this is their primary motivation). Second, a lot of the products of which the GDP percentage is based upon simply involve repacka…

Not all ideas can or should be taught in (elite) colleges. The framework to analyze any idea should be and generally is taught at colleges. Repackaging and selling things is foundational to creating value. The insurance industry is perhaps the quintessential example. They create no direct expected value, and yet they create societal benefit by creating risk-adjusted expected value. What is manufacturing but repackagi…

Insurance creates value, and so do banks. The problem really begins when the banks try to get more revenue than the value they can possibly generate. That's when it goes into bubbles and finally breaks. Insurance has its risks also, but the insurance system doesn't crash every couple years from itself (major natural events, terrorist attacks etc not taken into account).

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the contrary, it encourages disfunction. "Let us remove the consequences of your failures." Gee, I wonder if that memory will make them so grateful that they'll be more careful next time? Sure. It's not like their whole industry is about predicting risks and rewards based on past experience. Bah. The mistakes will be repeated and the bailout question will arise again. And it will be worse next time. We should have…

You guys are hilarious with your chests puffed out screaming about death to the financial players who were in trouble. Have you considered the massive negative shock to liquidity that would have resulted? Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase etc. deal with an inordinate amount of the world's liquid assets. If they had failed, the problems wouldn't have been a few quarters of negative GDP growth--we could have seen the colla…

Perhaps not. But not everyone has their chests puffed up about this. As it stands, they were rewarded for taking excess risk and are doing it again. What should be done next time?

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#119
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What relevance has that comment?

Even engineers got a bailout : GM apparently presented a systemic risk to the US car industry.

You could as well say managers got a bailout. Or plant workers got a bailout. Are engineers the ones to blame the most for GM?

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#120
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still find it hard to parse that as a problem. I mean, power generation only provides a benefit to society when someone uses the electricity to do something. So what? Infrastructure isn't inherently parasitic. Lots and lots of infrastructure isn't even necessarily bad. I view finance as infrastructure. The machinery that hooks investors up with investees is fundamentally useful. The machinery that lets people and b…

If you see finance as infrastructure to help other businesses grow (as I do), then it's growth should result in the growth of other industries. Instead what we see is finance growing and other industries declining. To me that suggests a general dysfunction in the role of finance. It simply isn't doing the good it's supposed to. There may be many or even most individuals who are acting in good faith, but the sector as…

If you see finance as infrastructure to help other businesses grow (as I do), then it's growth should result in the growth of other industries. Instead what we see is finance growing and other industries declining. To me that suggests a general dysfunction in the role of finance. It simply isn't doing the good it's supposed to.

Well, I don't know that I find that very persuasive. Industries rise and fall all the time, for many reasons; the world is a complex place. Perhaps a useful financial instrument now is keeping things from getting worse somewhere else. Or perhaps it will bear fruit in a decade, as one would generally expect with an investment. Such an argument seems hasty without a good understanding of what the relative growth rates of different industries under different conditions should be -- a rather tall order.

I do certainly see the moral distinction between George Soros' currency manipulation and Warren Buffett's shrewd investment, despite the fact that both men made their money with money. But I don't think it would make sense to reckon their true productivity by comparing their fortunes. Likewise, if one is going to suggest general dysfunction in the financial industry, I'm much more interested in what you think it's doing wrong specifically -- where the growth that you think is unhealthy is coming from -- than how big it is.

To talk in concrete terms, I think I read elsewhere that a lot of the recent growth in finance has been in insurance. It seems sensible to me that if a lot of people have lost money, insurance, and its role in mitigating financial risk, would be more important. Without it, we might see people completely unwilling to take on financial risk at all until they had more money, which would be devastating. At a first glance, I don't see anything unhealthy about such an industry's growth being decoupled from the rest of the economy--or even inversely correlated.

And as for the auto industry - they shouldn't have been bailed out either - that doesn't somehow make it better that the financial industry was.

Oh, indeed, I am not arguing that. Both were terribly bad. I was arguing only that a bad, but specific, historical event doesn't make the industry as a whole fundamentally bad. No one would say, "The government bailed out the auto industry -- making automobiles is fundamentally parasitic on society!" I mean, making those particular automobiles, sure. But all automobiles ever? That's overblown. But people do seem to take the financial bailouts as evidence that the industry as a whole is amoral.

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