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Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

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Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#111
post #79
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

changes = downtime. Has been since the advent of computing

Not if you have a competent devops team and a deployment pipeline.

Your devops team assures software quality?

But well, no QA effort is complete enough to really assure the quality of a large system. Thus, the GP holds true.

Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#112
post #88
post #80

Taking the numbers at their face value this is a good exercise in some text book statistical test of hypothesis. Incidents: Before 89. After 126. What is the chance of this happening if the 'rate' of occurrence has not changed ? Assuming an unknown but constant Poisson rate, we get the probability of observing what has been observed to be 0.00225. A fortuitous thing about this test is that one does not need to know w…

Maybe Github has grown significantly since then. More complexity, more down time.

Microsoft has every right to move fast and break things on their watch.

Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#114
post #88
post #80

Taking the numbers at their face value this is a good exercise in some text book statistical test of hypothesis. Incidents: Before 89. After 126. What is the chance of this happening if the 'rate' of occurrence has not changed ? Assuming an unknown but constant Poisson rate, we get the probability of observing what has been observed to be 0.00225. A fortuitous thing about this test is that one does not need to know w…

Maybe Github has grown significantly since then. More complexity, more down time.

Maybe Microsoft is less averse to complexity - which would still make uptime degradation land squarely on Microsoft’s shoulders. Microsoft seems to be an organization that actually introduces too much complexity to their products imo.

Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#115
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Assuming a Poisson rate That feels like a mighty big assumption. Probably big enough that trying to calculate the probability is more misleading than enlightening.

As I mentioned, my comment is meant as an exercise. If we were to take the numbers more seriously, due diligence is necessary. That said, if we assume that one incident does not affect the other, then the Poisson nature falls out as a natural consequence of that independence and the assumption of a constant rate (our Null hypothesis). As long as the incidents are spaced out enough, that the possibility of one inciden…

But why even start with an assumption that is so likely to be wrong? We know that incidents are frequently correlated. We know that scale and complexity add fragility. We know that GitHub has gotten bigger and more complex. The chance of the probability distribution holding constant over 5 years of major growth is basically zero.

Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Man, I really want to say we don't because of the implications of too centralised an internet, but there's no way it isn't a transitive dependency.

What the hell are you building that there has to be Cloudflare in the dependency tree at some point?

Well for our use case their caching infrastructure handles 63% of all our traffic and 70% of our bandwidth.

We'd have to basically quadruple our expenses without CF. Not to mention their available protections.

Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#118
post #79
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

changes = downtime. Has been since the advent of computing

Not if you have a competent devops team and a deployment pipeline.

Nonethless we are building and operating complex systems.

Testing something 100% has diminishing returns.

Therefore -> you will never be able to prevent all issues. As you are not aware how many changes are happening, you don't have a value which could indicate the healthiness of it.

I personally think that when i'm getting older and better in my job, i still make errors, the amount and severity is going down though.

Re: Has GitHub been down more since its acquisition by Microsoft?

#119
This analysis has a significant comparability problem because of added features. The core git-repository service is almost never down, but GitHub Actions has had a lot of reliability problems (you can see this clearly on the status page). But GitHub Actions is new, so it skews the recent availability problems up. Unfortunately, as the post notes, the detailed status information is _also_ new, so it's not really possible to analyze the data accurately.
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