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The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

foreignpolicy.com

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Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#111

Post by tathougies »

awinder wrote: post #110
_fq4v wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So Texas and Florida have 7-day moving average daily death rates lower than New York. Texas's has been stable for a few weeks now. Texas and Florida have fewer exposures, so less herd immunity than New York. But really all of this is a distraction . The point of the shutdowns we were told was to prevent cases from growing out of control so as not to overwhelm hospitals. No region of the United States, including New Y…

Deaths trail cases, Texas and Florida currently have 10x the new cases as New York not adjusted for population. You’re making very basic mistakes with numbers, presumably to coach them towards the point you want to make.

You're also coaching numbers. The point of the lockdowns were to not overwhelm hospitals. 10x new cases in Texas and Florida while new York is trending down is not hugely surprising. It also doesn't say much both states are also testing more. Also population wise both are more populous.

Either way... The point being to not overwhelm hospitals.. The question isn't whether they have 10x the amount of cases as ny now. Its whether they can handle the hospital numbers.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#112

Post by awinder »

tathougies wrote: post #111
awinder wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deaths trail cases, Texas and Florida currently have 10x the new cases as New York not adjusted for population. You’re making very basic mistakes with numbers, presumably to coach them towards the point you want to make.

You're also coaching numbers. The point of the lockdowns were to not overwhelm hospitals. 10x new cases in Texas and Florida while new York is trending down is not hugely surprising. It also doesn't say much both states are also testing more. Also population wise both are more populous. Either way... The point being to not overwhelm hospitals.. The question isn't whether they have 10x the amount of cases as ny now. I…

No, some people actually understand how the numbers interplay with a real scenario, which is why I gave you the raw numbers to see what you did. And you immediately jumped in and drew an illogical conclusion to support your point.

You’re spreading disinformation. If you need to do this to make yourself feel better, do it. But don’t become a spreader.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#113

Post by tathougies »

awinder wrote: post #112
tathougies wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're also coaching numbers. The point of the lockdowns were to not overwhelm hospitals. 10x new cases in Texas and Florida while new York is trending down is not hugely surprising. It also doesn't say much both states are also testing more. Also population wise both are more populous. Either way... The point being to not overwhelm hospitals.. The question isn't whether they have 10x the amount of cases as ny now. I…

No, some people actually understand how the numbers interplay with a real scenario, which is why I gave you the raw numbers to see what you did. And you immediately jumped in and drew an illogical conclusion to support your point. You’re spreading disinformation. If you need to do this to make yourself feel better, do it. But don’t become a spreader.

What was my illogical conclusion? Can you please reiterate what conclusion you think im trying to reach? My only point is That the point of the lockdowns was not to overwhelm hospitals and even with the increases in tx and fl, they are unlikely to do so? How is that illogical? I do not deny the rise on cases in those states. What i question is whether that means theyve failed in achieving their original goal of not overwhelming hospitals.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#114

Post by MintelIE »

twblalock wrote: post #39

The article cites the rapid changes to supply chains, particularly Walmart's, as a reason the economy kept going. What else is that, other than the mechanisms of a free market at work? The government didn't tell them how to run their supply chains. Nor did the government tell companies how to shift their workforces to remote work, they just did it, and they did it pretty well, even though some of them had never tried…

The author's a China shill, he prefers a Chinese order to what we have now. Read some of his articles, seems like a nasty character.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#115

Post by closeparen »

secstate wrote: post #18

Is it just me, or is it a little silly to compare the 1919 world economy pre-mass production/consumerism with today? The irony to most of this shutdown is that "essential" businesses are still open. What the Great Pause has exposed is the shallowness and fragility of mass production/consumerism. During the pandemic of 1919, 80-90% of household income was spent on food and essential needs. Can you even imagine if we s…

It's interesting to see loss aversion made so explicit in these suggestions that we should abstain from nice things unless we can guarantee them forever.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#116

Post by sandworm101 »

lefrenchy wrote: post #33
sandworm101 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe at the federal level, but state and local governments cannot print money. They will need to raise taxes to cover thier costs.

That’s a reflection of poor execution on the part of the federal government though isn’t it? States and local governments will suffer the consequences for what the federal government did not adequately address.

In the US system, health is generally considered a state responsibility. The power of federal agencies over state governments on matters of health remains very limited, mostly to an advisory role. This trend towards laying everything at the feet of the national executive, the presidency, is a new trend. Once upon a time the president might have dismissed an outbreak as literally "not my job".

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#117

Post by redis_mlc »

082349872349872 wrote: post #108
redis_mlc wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I come from a farming area. When I read the drivel on HN about urban farming, my response is, "Talk is cheap" and "What are the details?" - 1/4 acre in SV starts at $1 million - farming is a job. My family's small garden (30'x30') was like a part-time job in itself. - when there's an immigrant farm labor shortage and unemployed locals are recruited for farm work, they don't make it to lunch on the first day - it's ba…

Our farms were doing fine with underemployed locals. One article I've read indicates they simply used twice as much field labour as they had with guest workers, so the work was only half as back-breaking.

Serious question: what city and what year?

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#118

Post by pmiller2 »

Klinky wrote: post #98
omosubi wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't necessarily agree with OP but the degree to which the private market, without any government intervention, was able to get masks into the hands of consumers across the country and world quickly was extremely impressive. I don't remember the exact timeline but there was a non-chain corner store down the street from me that was able to get masks within 3 or 4 weeks of the local shutdown. Of course it would have…

It would have been more impressive if it predicted demand in advance, so they were actually available when needed. It would have been more impressive if there was a domestic source, but that no longer made economical sense in the market. It wasn't 3 - 4 weeks for many, it was months for some. Likely healthcare workers could get them within weeks, but initial supplies ran out, likely costing lives. While government sh…

I agree with you, but I suspect you and the GP comment are referring to different things when you say "masks." I'm thinking of the N95 masks that are proven to offer pretty good protection from respiratory droplets. I believe the GP may be referring to either disposable surgical masks, or some sort of other mask that is not rated for any sort of specific protection.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#119

Post by austhrow743 »

jacobolus wrote: post #92
ptero wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give examples? I see absolutely no indications that many countries are doing a good job containing the virus. Many are delaying its spread, but they are nowhere near containment; in fact when those countries that supposedly got the COVID under control lift restrictions the disease comes back. I do not see how containment is possible unless you institute a total lockdown and build perimeter around carriers, in…

If you think it’s worth more than a million US deaths so people don’t have to wear masks at grocery stores, take online classes, or stop going to disneyland, movie theaters, concerts, and live sporting events for the next 6-12 months, I don’t know what to tell you. If you are planning to take no precautions because to do so would be mildly personally inconvenient, I sincerely hope you stay far away from my neighborho…

Do you have similar feelings about other convenience/death trade offs?

Getting rid of soft drink, fast food, alcohol, all sorts of things would save so very many years while overall I would think impact lives less than corona virus measures do. Particularly quality adjusted life years.

Re: The Great Pause Was an Economic Revolution

#120

Post by 082349872349872 »

redis_mlc wrote: post #117
082349872349872 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our farms were doing fine with underemployed locals. One article I've read indicates they simply used twice as much field labour as they had with guest workers, so the work was only half as back-breaking.

Serious question: what city and what year?

Switzerland, 2020. So far I've read articles about asparagus and leeks. There are probably more stories in the ag coop magazine, but I haven't been by the coop since February, having my feed delivered instead.

https://www.srf.ch/news/regional/basel-baselland/corona-ernt...

The newbies need not work as hard as harvest workers from the east. "We're twice as many as in a normal season. So everyone has only half the work."

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Ganz so hart arbeiten, wie die Erntehelferinnen- und Erntehelfer aus dem Osten, müssen die Neulinge aber nicht. «Wir sind doppelte so viele, wie in einer normalen Saison. Also müssen auch alle nur halb so viel arbeiten»

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