536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018) • Hacker News Board

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#111

Post by pogimabus » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 8:41 PM UTC

ativzzz wrote: post #97

lgl wrote: post #62

The 2010 eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull [0] was a small sample of the perturbations that a volcanic event can have on day to day lives. And it was a relatively small eruption. Anything much larger than that will most likely have devastating effects on modern society on pretty much all levels and it's not really a matter of "if" but "when". Besides eruptions, many other scarier events can cause huge shifts on…

> To me this is the main reason that going multiplanetary or space habitat based is basically the only way to escape this inevitable doom I disagree with this. Leaving the Earth doesn't remove random acts of doom from happening, and in fact, they are more lethal in unfamiliar and hostile environments. If we do not figure out how to handle such black swan events on our home planet, we have no chance of handling them i…

Becoming multiplanetary IS handling it, just not in a necessarily "ideal" way. The problem is that we don't want to have the reset button hit and have every human in existence set back to the stone age technologically; having multiple self sustaining human societies on multiple planets mitigates that risk in a major way since the likelihood of a disaster being so large that it resets technology on both/all planets is much smaller than the likelihood of having a disaster that does it for just one of them.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#112

Post by jschwartzi » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 8:43 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #94

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I haven't seen any empty shelves or shortages since early May, and the only rationing I've seen in June is on hand sanitizer and instant noodles. I guess I don't know whether my area is uncommonly good or yours is uncommonly bad.

I'm in a mid-Atlantic state, the shortages (at all the major grocery stores) stopped after the first several weeks post initial hoarding rush. That's about two months ago now. The grocery stores here are stocked normally, you'd never know a pandemic were going on.

In my state we're going to have a serious problem if the outbreaks in our farming communities continue to grow. There are like 3 counties here that we are utterly dependent on for all our local food and they're all just now entering the "exponential" stage on the epidemiological curve.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#113

Post by seph-reed » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 8:44 PM UTC

yummypaint wrote: post #88

lgl wrote: post #62

The 2010 eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull [0] was a small sample of the perturbations that a volcanic event can have on day to day lives. And it was a relatively small eruption. Anything much larger than that will most likely have devastating effects on modern society on pretty much all levels and it's not really a matter of "if" but "when". Besides eruptions, many other scarier events can cause huge shifts on…

It's also a good reason to leave fossil fuels in the ground and not just extract them as quickly as possible wherever we find them. It seems conceivable that we could eventually find ourselves thermodynamically unable to recover after a catastrophy like a big solar flare. Unfortunately there is no way for anyone to make money by being responsible in this way. We are effectively draining our planetary rainy day fund a…

> We are effectively draining our planetary rainy day fund and spending it on cocaine

Not usually a fan of us vs them mentality, but your use of "we" here feels bad. Surely, it's all of us that use these resources, nobody on HN is self sufficient (please be the exception). But at the same time, most of us aren't getting much of the "cocaine" here, at least relatively.

It would almost be reasonable to say "They are effectively draining our planetary rainy day fund and spending it on cocaine".. whoever they are. The ones with cocaine mustaches presumably.

EDIT: Someone paid a lot of money to make this not an "our" choice but instead a "their" choice. If you feel like this is something you have any real control over, I urge you to change things.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#114

Post by ci5er » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 8:45 PM UTC

pmiller2 wrote: post #43

pureliquidhw wrote: post #17

How susceptible are we to another catastrophic volcano eruption? After COVID-19 shut down supply chains, there were some problematic delays, but seems like we quickly recovered. If the entire planet's crops were wiped out, we're all just SOL if we don't get canned goods in time? If we had 12 months notice, could we as a planet get it together? 6 months? 3 months? Is there forecasting for volcanoes? (looks like yes: h…

In what sense have we “recovered” from supply chain disruptions? I go to the store and still routinely see empty shelves where TP should be; have experienced meat shortages in recent days; and stores are still rationing things like hand sanitizer (when you can find it), canned goods, meat, and rice.

IDK where you live (and I won't ask! because I respect privacy and stuff), but in central Texas (Austin) and most of the urban markets I have been to (HEB, Central Market, Randall's, Trader Joe's, all the regional BBQ joints), I don't think I have seen any disruption in anything the whole time, except TP, briefly hand-sanitizer and a pop in the price of milk. I'm guessing the first two (at least) were because of people doing the lemming-thing and over-buying.

I understand that this is/was not the case across the country, and I have been a bit baffled about that. (Although I do recognize the supply chains to restaurants and to corporations (TP) and to grocery stores are not the same and don't easily switch on a dime. But, we have meat and yogurt and eggs and milk on the shelves, but some friends in Connecticut or NYC, for example, say that they do not. And I can not understand why.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#115

Post by ericmay » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 8:48 PM UTC

klyrs wrote: post #85

deanCommie wrote: post #10

These kinds of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions could happen today right? What's.......our intended process for dealing with this? Are there any technical solutions for dispersing ash from the atmosphere? I know this is a stupidly naive question to some degree - how do you prevent acts of god, but I am curious if someone has thought about it.

Edit: don't take my word for it, apparently this is a popular myth Read up on Yellowstone, for example -- AFAIK it's "due for a big one" but it blows up so infrequently and so catastrophically that there's no real plan other than "maybe think about not living in North America." But hey, volcanic ash is a coolant for the climate -- a few well-placed eruptions could do some good, on a global scale (sorry about the loca…

Don’t think it’s “overdue”[0]. I think that’s just a myth in popular culture.

[0] https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-...

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#116

Post by RcouF1uZ4gsC » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 8:48 PM UTC

throw3fj43 wrote: post #95

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #48

Since this article, there has been new research indicating that the Plague of Justinian may not have been as bad as previously thought. https://www.princeton.edu/news/2019/12/02/maybe-first-plague...

That claim should be greeted with skepticism, if you are interested in learning more please consider this reply: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-%E2%80%98Justinian...

Excellent article. I guess it is especially important to be somewhat skeptical of “exciting” new research that hits the popular press and make sure to read all the analyses.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#117

Post by ghaff » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 8:52 PM UTC

subsubzero wrote: post #58

How many people reading this have a years worth of food? Could any of us survive something similar to this eruption? I think covid really opened alot of peoples eyes to extreme worldwide disasters (volcanos, large earthquakes, pandemics) and how most are not prepared for it at all and yes these things do and will continue to keep happening.

I'd just point out that keeping a year's worth of food for a rapid and unexpected event is nuclear bunker level prep. It also requires spending a lot of money and storage space on something that's going to have to be rotated out every few years. And while some things can last pretty much indefinitely, other things have shelf lifes and you're probably not going to use all those canned goods during normal times.

So there's a very significant annual cost to maintaining that perpetual one year supply of necessaries.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#118

Post by newsbinator » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 8:52 PM UTC

pogimabus wrote: post #111

ativzzz wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To me this is the main reason that going multiplanetary or space habitat based is basically the only way to escape this inevitable doom I disagree with this. Leaving the Earth doesn't remove random acts of doom from happening, and in fact, they are more lethal in unfamiliar and hostile environments. If we do not figure out how to handle such black swan events on our home planet, we have no chance of handling them i…

Becoming multiplanetary IS handling it, just not in a necessarily "ideal" way. The problem is that we don't want to have the reset button hit and have every human in existence set back to the stone age technologically; having multiple self sustaining human societies on multiple planets mitigates that risk in a major way since the likelihood of a disaster being so large that it resets technology on both/all planets is…

I suppose a pandemic would still do it though, assuming sustained travel between habitats.

We're gonna want a multi-week airlock to be allowed into the Moon & Mars habitats.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#119

Post by Nasrudith » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 8:55 PM UTC

yummypaint wrote: post #88

lgl wrote: post #62

The 2010 eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull [0] was a small sample of the perturbations that a volcanic event can have on day to day lives. And it was a relatively small eruption. Anything much larger than that will most likely have devastating effects on modern society on pretty much all levels and it's not really a matter of "if" but "when". Besides eruptions, many other scarier events can cause huge shifts on…

It's also a good reason to leave fossil fuels in the ground and not just extract them as quickly as possible wherever we find them. It seems conceivable that we could eventually find ourselves thermodynamically unable to recover after a catastrophy like a big solar flare. Unfortunately there is no way for anyone to make money by being responsible in this way. We are effectively draining our planetary rainy day fund a…

I am not too certain of the logic of the arguement - namely because fossil fuels are actually pretty damn advanced in terms of "actual technology and societal infastructure to access and exploit them". We already went through this long ago with surface deposits of copper ore as well essentially millenia ago.

Effectively the time when it is useful is "when we don't have cheaper alternatives yet". We still should strive to make renewables and storage the cheaper option though.

To get really pedantic our 20th century understanding of power and energy are exactly backwards colloquially from what is really provided. Power is energy over time. The "power" infastructure was actually largely an energy infastructure with the exception of say hydro electric dams - you can only burn fuel once no matter how clever your ability to extract it. Meanwhile "renewable energy" provides power over its period of existence.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#120

Post by usrusr » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 8:57 PM UTC

AnssiH wrote: post #67

pmiller2 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what sense have we “recovered” from supply chain disruptions? I go to the store and still routinely see empty shelves where TP should be; have experienced meat shortages in recent days; and stores are still rationing things like hand sanitizer (when you can find it), canned goods, meat, and rice.

> I go to the store and still routinely see empty shelves where TP should be; Huh, so that is why Google Maps keeps asking me whether TP was in stock every time I go the store - I did not realize there were still actual shortages on that elsewhere, I thought it was just a couple of days of panicing in March and that Google was just being weird / behind the times. FWIW, I haven't noticed such disruptions here (Finland…

Well, a country of 5.5 million where two of the three biggest paper manufacturers are based, if the TP situation was worse we would all envy you as the land of the chosen.