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We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

billiontoone.com

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Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#111
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the question! The goal of skipping RNA extraction is to decrease the amount of labor necessary for processing samples and also to eliminate a dependency on RNA extraction reagents that have recently become difficult to find. The FDA is very strict about the specific brand and model of kit you use, so showing that you can swap out one RNA kit for another is actually very useful because you will have allevia…

In the UK they're saying there's a shortage of swabs and pipettes even, do you not need these too? Also, in the UK our independent and uni labs have been saying for almost a week they could extract the RNA differently but the NHS have a fixed approved way that they won't change. - Are the chemicals you're using more common or would there just be a new shortage of different chemicals? - Is there a risk you'd be creati…

Our technique would still be affected by shortages in specimen collection (like swabs).

Purely speculative, but I think if swabs remain an issue for too long, alternatives could start coming online, such as even using qtips + saline (no idea if it works, it's just an example). The current swab + Universal / Viral Transport Medium combo is optimized for flexibility; it is designed to work across a very broad range of viruses and bacteria that have different viral loads and shedding characteristics. The current pandemic is pretty much COVID-19 only, so I think it's a priori feasible that a specimen collection procedure can be found that uses common materials. We did try early on to see if saline or other buffers affected the performance of the assay, and it worked fine in those conditions.

We use fairly standard chemicals. I haven't heard from our suppliers about shortages for the chemicals we use. Chemicals and enzymes tend to be relatively fast to scale up for bulk manufacturing.

There's always manufacturing risk that a product will not work as expected. In fact, the first COVID-19 test developed by the CDC did not work as expected, and this delayed testing by several weeks. We de-risk this as much as possible by performing experiments as early as possible, akin to the fail fast mentality of checking for the highest risk failure modes first. Since we don't have a national healthcare system in the US, the manufacturer takes on the vast majority of the risk of a defective product.

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#112
post #99

Your site states you use a “proprietary machine learning algorithm”. As someone who has seen a gamut of companies use the machine learning phrase to justify almost any conceivable product, could you share any non-confidential information about what you achieve using ML?

That was discussed here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22808414.

Don't miss the off-topic collapsed subthread, if you like that kind of thing.

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#113
post #2

I'm the co-founder and CTO at BillionToOne. I'm happy to answer any questions here. I've also posted a slightly more technical explanation of how the test works and why it can scale here: https://twitter.com/dtsao/status/1247642005510873088?s=21 Edit: Since our site seems to be overwhelmed at the moment, here's a recap: We’ve been working hard at BillionToOne on a new COVID-19 test that scales testing to everyone in…

Do these tests have an advantage in specificity and sensitivity, especially if doing test pooling?

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#114
post #75
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A self-swab surveillance program has been launched in Seattle: https://publichealthinsider.com/2020/03/23/introducing-scan-... . Is self-swabbing allowed there because it's for research purpose, not clinical purpose? The program does tell users whether they test positive though.

My guess is that self-swabbing is allowed in the Seattle SCAN study because it is a research study. The SCAN study is super fascinating because it would be crazy unusual under normal times for a research study to return results back to patients; I'm very happy they are able to do that, and it speaks to the severity of this pandemic. The FDA has recently made clear that no at-home self-collection tests are allowed (fo…

> The SCAN study is super fascinating because it would be crazy unusual under normal times for a research study to return results back to patients; I'm very happy they are able to do that, and it speaks to the severity of this pandemic.

The Seattle Flu Study wasn't allowed to communicate back to patients but "By Feb. 25, Dr. Chu and her colleagues could not bear to wait any longer. They began performing coronavirus tests, without government approval. What came back confirmed their worst fear. They quickly had a positive test from a local teenager with no recent travel history." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-de...

I'm glad to hear they're allowed to do the SCAN study!

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#115
post #37

This would be HUGE. Not only has the testing capacity in America been maxed out, but the % of positive results has been more than 20% and trending upward. In order to quarantine effectively (read: end the shut down) we need to test the family, coworkers, and contacts of every positive result.

Testing has been ramping up https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily

That's where I've been getting data. We have a long way to go.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Y9_ZrMBhhVLg2xQHtBCc...

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#116
Cool technique that uses existing Sanger sequencing equipment that has been optimized for decades. So you are sanger sequencing the loci + a synthetic frame-shifted oligo that you spike in. Then you essentially "demultiplex" the chromatogram knowing the two molecules are frame-shifted and compare the peaks to get a relative measure.

I guess the trick is to find a loci that is specific enough to covid-19, but can still produce a good frame-shifted oligo that allows you to maximize the resulting chromatogram signal.

I am surprised that the detection limit of a no-extraction PCR can be this sensitive. But it looks like the data checks out. Does this work for every type of sample? I would assume differing buffers, collection methods will influence the PCR?

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#117
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the UK they're saying there's a shortage of swabs and pipettes even, do you not need these too? Also, in the UK our independent and uni labs have been saying for almost a week they could extract the RNA differently but the NHS have a fixed approved way that they won't change. - Are the chemicals you're using more common or would there just be a new shortage of different chemicals? - Is there a risk you'd be creati…

Our technique would still be affected by shortages in specimen collection (like swabs). Purely speculative, but I think if swabs remain an issue for too long, alternatives could start coming online, such as even using qtips + saline (no idea if it works, it's just an example). The current swab + Universal / Viral Transport Medium combo is optimized for flexibility; it is designed to work across a very broad range of…

if the virus is known to live on cardboard or plastic for 48-72 hours, is the viral transport medium even necessary, assuming rapid shipping and processing?

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because scaling medical testing is the same as scaling web services...

actually, scaling a website is much easier than scaling a medical service. If you can't be bothered to take some basic steps for web site scaling (google page speed + a CDN) then the idea that you will carefully and successfully navigate to a 1 million tests per day moderate to high complexity medical test seems like it will be a stretch no? That said, a 100% support MUCh higher test capacity, both this and IGg IGm (…

"If you can't be bothered to take some basic steps for web site scaling (google page speed + a CDN) then the idea that you will carefully and successfully navigate to a 1 million tests per day moderate to high complexity medical test seems like it will be a stretch no? "

Their priorities may be on other things than websites.

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#119
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it incredible that no one has done these studies before issuing the lock down orders. Without knowing what the proportion of people who have been exposed but aren't sick any response is the wrong response. If it turns out that it's already spread to most everybody lock downs are just a way to create more homelessness. If it turns out that the only people with the antibodies are the ones in the hospitals we nee…

Yes, if you google "coronavirus iceland" you'll see they've tested almost their entire population. They found 1586 confirmed cases, of whom only 6 died, which gives a fatality rate of 0.4%. Turning this around, if we multiply confirmed deaths by 264, that gives us an estimate of how many cases there are. So, for example, with UK's death count of 6159 this means about 2.4% of the population is infected. Furthermore, o…

Bergamo had an 0.4% of it's population die in excess of usual in March and no one believes that 100% of the population was infected. Which would put the UK at 240,000.
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