111–120 of 349 posts
Judging by the history of most pandemics, I am currently more worried about the capacity of morgues than hospitals. Maybe this one will be different though.
That's probably a little more easily solved. When things get ugly enough, humans have a tendency to skip all the polite rituals and start using mass graves.
While I'm not questioning the truth of these accounts, what annoys me about all these reports is that they seem to be anecdotes rather than hard data. It's really difficult to understand what's actually going on because the data sucks. It's hard to assess just how full hospitals are, which hospitals are at capacity, how many patients are actually testing positive vs. showing up at the hospital because they feel a bit…
> the seriousness of the virus itself seems questionable. Half of the world’s population are or have been under some kind if restriction due to this virus. I don’t governments do that if they are uncertain. > I don't think we'll really know what's actually going on for a few more weeks or months I don’t think it is going to happen, but if the US does what Trump wants and ”lets it rip”, that will answer the question a…
Judging by the history of most pandemics, I am currently more worried about the capacity of morgues than hospitals. Maybe this one will be different though.
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-24/madrid-starts-...
Judging by the history of most pandemics, I am currently more worried about the capacity of morgues than hospitals. Maybe this one will be different though.
Well, that’s some fear mongering. The article is all anecdotes. Most of the nurses and doctors they talked to are anonymous sources. According to the AHA[1], there are 6,146 hospitals in the US. There are 68,000 confirmed covid-19 cases in the US, and 33,000 of those cases are all in New York—almost 10x more than the next states (4.4k NJ, 3.2k CA)[2]. I don’t know the rate of hospitalization for the infected, but sym…
Why do you think the rest of the US is going to be different? They're just a few doublings (some days) behind.
Well, that’s some fear mongering. The article is all anecdotes. Most of the nurses and doctors they talked to are anonymous sources. According to the AHA[1], there are 6,146 hospitals in the US. There are 68,000 confirmed covid-19 cases in the US, and 33,000 of those cases are all in New York—almost 10x more than the next states (4.4k NJ, 3.2k CA)[2]. I don’t know the rate of hospitalization for the infected, but sym…
The idea you are discounting anonymous sources is ill-founded given this is realtime in healthcare (in which being on record as a source could be an employment risk) and agrees with every analysis, including the briefings from the military and intelligence community given to the president in January and February. It also agrees with analyses of this specific situation, which almost exactly the archetype of the type of pandemic people were concerned about.
I suspect Florida and Louisiana are next. You are also incorrectly aggregating data and not looking at local demographic and healthcare coverage. Beds and ICUs are not evenly distributed. There was a rural healthcare crisis before COVID-19 and the demographics were older with more CFR associated comorbities, too. VA outside of NoVA, WVa, AL, KY, southern OH, MO, AK, AR... it's just a matter of time.
While I'm not questioning the truth of these accounts, what annoys me about all these reports is that they seem to be anecdotes rather than hard data. It's really difficult to understand what's actually going on because the data sucks. It's hard to assess just how full hospitals are, which hospitals are at capacity, how many patients are actually testing positive vs. showing up at the hospital because they feel a bit…
The only hard data we have are death numbers. They're awful enough: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest Other hard data takes time to collect and will only be reliable once the disaster has swept through.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, I do. Helps that I live with a Nurse Practitioner. However, the number of people I know who are convinced that getting the flu shot makes them sick or gives them the flu and thus refuse to get the shot is shocking. Some things I've actually heard: "I get sick every time!" No, you don't. "It's a LIVE VIRUS! Everybody knows this!" No, it's not. You're just an idiot hanging around with idiots.
> "I get sick every time!" No, you don't. This is possible theoretically . yes? There is no guarantee that you get lucky from flu shot at-least once.
The flu shot you get every year in USA and Europe is the vaccine for the most common flu that was seen in Asia and Australia the 6 months previous. And vice versa.
It’s a guess. If there are two common flus that went around, they pick one to vaccine for. Sometimes they get it wrong and the shot you get has nothing to do with the flu that ends up being common in your area.
It’s very possible to get the shot every year and still get sick.
There is a little bit of art in this science, a lot of people don’t get that.
It was easy to see the future: you just look up on the wiki the evolution of numbers of confirmed cases in the EU countries.
Given that the US is now neck and neck with Italy to be the first country to have more cases than China, we have been wildly exceeding any estimates based on EU countries.
The 2017-2018 flu season also overwhelmed US hospitals: https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.ht... My point isn't that we should take Coronavirus any less seriously this year. Healthcare workers have no vaccine for it. It's on top of the flu. Etc. My point is that we should take the flu more seriously every year. Everyone gets their…
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1819estimates.ht...