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3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

wsj.com

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Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#111

Post by aguyfromnb »

1zael wrote: post #29
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things are bad enough without exaggerating the situation. The big problem with the great depression was not the size of the crash but the duration of the recovery. Our view of the money supply seems a bit more effective these days and it seems unlikely that the recession that comes out of this situation will last as long.

It's not an exaggeration. You should take the macroeconomic effect seriously. This is the first major recession in over 100 years caused by an external market factor. Factor in 18 months for vaccine clinical trials and distribution, 1-2 years for industries to get back on their feet, and slews of international policy regressions...you're looking at a 4-5 year impact. Not to mention, social distancing is really taking…

The Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses estimated yesterday that 30% of small business might not survive the quarantine.

I'm with you; people are underestimating the last impact of this pandemic.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#112

Post by gonzo41 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #50
gonzo41 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Australia, they closed all the 'non-essential' industries. Which turns out to be about 30% of the workforce. I keep thinking that big shift will be when people come out of this they won't allow themselves to be 'non-essential' ever again. They won't take back those jobs, they'll push for agreements that guarantee a safety net.

> They won't take back those jobs, they'll push for agreements that guarantee a safety net. This event forcing America to adopt more progressive policies after experiencing suffering without them wouldn’t be a bad thing. Sometimes things must get worse for them to get better.

I totally understand that. And you'll probably come out the other side of this with a socialized healthcare system of some sort.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#113

Post by lonelappde »

ian0 wrote: post #85

How is our social system so fragile? I mean seriously - thousands of years and wireless comms and rockets to the moon and not only do we forget to prepare for a virus (something that had happened routinely throughout our history) but when it hits and people have to stay at home for a few weeks the economy falls down and leaves millions of people who want to work unable to do so.

Rare catastrophes are hard to prepare for, because the cost of preparation is expensive.

"Routinely happening" once a century or two isn't an easy target.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#114

Post by dsfyu404ed »

sundaeofshock wrote: post #59
rubber_duck wrote: post #35

And this is just the start. While I think the US response to Corona was slower than the response in my country I feel the US is the only country that's seriously discussing economic repercussions and debating the medical experts. In EU (at least in my country) it's doctors running things and we are in "stop the pandemic at all cost". Everyone is in panic due to Italy situation. But doctors are only trained to see the…

Seriously? There were a number of submissions yesterday to HN discussing the relative merits of sacrificing millions for the sake of the market. Perhaps you missed those?

The problem with that black and white reasoning is that on some level "the market" represents people's livelihoods and eventually there comes a point where it's reasonable to say "X people should die to prevent Y amount of hardship for Z people".

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#115

Post by wmeredith »

shripadk wrote: post #45
PaulRobinson wrote: post #23

A staggering number, and unprecedented in the modern era. I'm not in the US or an America, but my (retired), Father is and for the sake of the people around him and his family I hope this is the point where the American political system - and Republicans in particular - realise that their ideologies are dead. In the UK we saw an Old-Etonian Tory Prime Minister in the space of a couple of weeks: - Effectively national…

> And maybe - just maybe - it's time everybody took another look at the UBI debate, again. Doesn't UBI directly result in inflation and cause currency devaluation? If the money that you hold loses its value (because everyone has at the very least the same amount of money as a basic, consistent income) then it is worth nothing in the end. It is as good as having no money in my humble opinion. Money has to be valuable…

You should read Utopia for Realists: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0316471917

It addresses a lot of concerns about UBI in a very accessible way. UBI isn't a new concept and it has been well studied. (It was almost implemented in the USA as a more streamlined alternative to the byzantine welfare state, but the Democrats sunk it.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#116

Post by mrfusion »

cjslep wrote: post #32

I grew up with the puritanical mindset of: "Your intrinsic worth as a human is the money you earn; because the money you earn is from how hard you work; and how hard you work is a reflection of your intrinsic Virtue." Thus I grew up in a family that loathes the unemployed. I really hope -- though I have grave doubts -- that this event gets through to them, so that they can have some personal growth, too.

Sadly everyone seems to be doubling down on their existing strong opinions.

(Any ideas to improve that?)

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#117

Post by abyssin »

ian0 wrote: post #85

How is our social system so fragile? I mean seriously - thousands of years and wireless comms and rockets to the moon and not only do we forget to prepare for a virus (something that had happened routinely throughout our history) but when it hits and people have to stay at home for a few weeks the economy falls down and leaves millions of people who want to work unable to do so.

Don't even start to think about climate change, a phenomenon we're completely aware is happening, but still do nothing about, despite consequences that will be worse than this virus.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#118

Post by Kaze404 »

big_chungus wrote: post #73
Kaze404 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing I don't understand about this line of thinking is how do you expect sick people from working? Sure, not everyone will die but a significant portion of the population will get infected and need at the very least to stay home for a week or two. How is that situation better than where we're at now?

3.28 million people are already out of work, likely a good deal more than that. One million are most at risk. There won't be zero impact, but that's less than a third, right out of the gate. Long-term we'll see significant increases in unemployment on the "shut-it-down" path. To clarify based on your reply to this comment, my point was that we've already seen more people out of work than the estimated worst-case 1.2…

I don't understand what this has to do with the question I asked. Feels like a non sequitur

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#119

Post by tr33house »

cjslep wrote: post #32

I grew up with the puritanical mindset of: "Your intrinsic worth as a human is the money you earn; because the money you earn is from how hard you work; and how hard you work is a reflection of your intrinsic Virtue." Thus I grew up in a family that loathes the unemployed. I really hope -- though I have grave doubts -- that this event gets through to them, so that they can have some personal growth, too.

I think this is wrongly attributed as puritanical

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#120

Post by aguyfromnb »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #80
TeMPOraL wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are indicators from past problems, though. One example I've seen is that it took 17 years for airlines to recover after 9/11[0]. -- [0] - https://www.businessinsider.com/airline-stocks-recover-septe...

I'm guessing that index does not capture total return. For example, DAL has offered ~2-3% annual dividends at least since 2013, which adds up to a pretty substantial difference to between total return and asset price if reinvested. It's not clear if that's when they resumed dividends or if Yahoo Finance just doesn't have data going back further.

Why don't you do the calculation then, instead of dismissing an article/calculation based on something you're not even sure is true?
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