Live data from Hacker News

Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools

thelocal.dk

111–120 of 165 posts

Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools

#111
post #2

Also, all public sector employees who do not perform critical functions will be sent home on paid leave, and all private companies are recommended to do the same. On top of this all public gatherings of more than 100 people is discouraged, and it is alsp encouraged for all bars and nightclubs to keep closed for now. These are expected to be signed into law within the week.

Are grocery shops considered critical?

Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools

#112
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Keeping kids home certainly restricts what parents can do. Some of whom may be needed to do other things. Nope, not in Denmark: if they're needed then they are exempt.

Exempt as in their kids can go to daycare?

Yes, of course, if it neccessary. That's what the following Danish translates to

> Dog vil visse institutioner blive holdt åben for forældre, der ikke kan finde anden løsning, og for forældre, der varetager kritiske hverv og ikke kan finde anden løsning.

From https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/danmark-bliver-lukket-ned-...

DR is Denmark's public service radio/tv.

Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools

#113
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not the most popular opinion, but unless the modeling is coming from legit experts, as compared to some people playing with numbers, I prefer to ignore them. I stick with sources like the WHO and local health authorities, simply becasue they have the knowledge, expertie, man power and data basis to come up with reliable numbers. That being said, Austria is closing schools starting next week, Bavaria is discussi…

Which is a good thing in both cases you mentioned. Though seeing those visualizations could put things in a proper perspective and prompt officials to act quickly while they could still do something about it. Many health experts are worried and are expressing their concerns publicly already. /r/covid19 is trying to keep all posts scientific and high quality, maybe you can monitor it over there for latest info.

Not that active on reddit, but given that the data presentation from WHO and co. is abysmal, both in style and depth, I might give it a try. Not that I am following it to closely until now, so. Might change, so.

I would love to get my hands on the raw data the WHO has so. Not post any results online or publicly, but to toy around with them. It is such an intriguing data set!

Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably best to shut them down too early or not at all. Grandparents tend to be relied upon as babysitters in time of need, so if you wait until transmission among school children is widespread your actions just delivered the virus to some of the most vulnerable populations.

Assuming grandparents live near their families, and are alive, and are capable of child care.

Denmark is geographically a relatively small country, and it is not uncommon for children to travel alone across the country in dedicated trains[1] for the children during the weekends.

That said, its really not uncommon for other family members besides grandparents and even friends of the family to take care of your children in Denmark.

[1]: (In Danish) https://www.dsb.dk/find-produkter-og-services/dsb-borneguide...

Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools

#115
post #35
post #2

Also, all public sector employees who do not perform critical functions will be sent home on paid leave, and all private companies are recommended to do the same. On top of this all public gatherings of more than 100 people is discouraged, and it is alsp encouraged for all bars and nightclubs to keep closed for now. These are expected to be signed into law within the week.

Is there any reasoning/science behind 100 people? Why 100 but not 1000 or 50?

Yes. The Joe Rogan experience episode with Michael Osterholm talked about this. Basically all of this social distancing is about slowing the spread so as to not overwhelm the healthcare system, not stop it. They can calculate how much you impact the speed of spread if you limit gatherings to 1k, 100, 50, 5, etc. From there it's a somewhat subjective risk assessment of what you want to recommend, bearing in mind that destroying the economy results in deaths from downstream effects.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools

#116
Interestingly Iceland, which has most of it's infections from Italy (and the other Alpine countries), designated those countries as areas with high risk of infection long before those countries would admit it, is not looking into these kinds of closures. I understand that they request people not to gather in large groups, on a completely voluntary basis and anyone is free to self-quarantine with pay or benefits.

The consensus over there is that the disruptions would be worse than an increase in infections. Closing schools and other limits would only delay the infections and they would likely become unmanageable when limits are lifted. The emphasis is on protecting those that are most likely to get seriously sick, and not limiting the number of infections of those that are not at (high) risk. They also consider that if those that have been infected build immunity, it would be better (and I'm paraphrasing) "to just get it over with."

On Friday they will start testing around the country to get a better understanding of the infection rate, especially whether it's already prevalent in the community. This will be on an unprecedented scale, as they expect to test >2% of the population. The expected result is that the infection is already widely distributed in the community.

Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools

#117
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point more than enough data exists to show the population will suffer ~1% losses. We shouldn't need 10% to freak out. Not to mention long-tail fatalities that might arise if it becomes an annual virus like the flu. When all that had to happen was people treat it seriously to begin with rather than saying "But the flu is way worse".

Maybe, or maybe not. Let’s say it’s 0.5% fatal and largely only to folks who are older and have comorbid conditions. Instead we panic 100% of people, leading to mass hysteria, loss of livelihood, global recession, military zombie apocalypse lockdowns and so on. What if our response causes more harm? It might well. Proportionality of response matters and so do second and third order effects. What if all the above caus…

The difference between 0.5% and 3% case fatality rate is in large part determined by whether hospitals become overwhelmed, and that in turn will be determined by whether we take immediate and widespread preemptive action to reduce the exponent of the infection curve.

Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw the Joe Rogan clip[1] and I agree that Michael Osterholm's analysis of this seems correct when it comes to the United States. Denmark however has a completely different structure socially. All private sector employees who can work from home are urged to work from home. All public sector employees who are not working in any matter-of-life-and-death function are forced to stay at home. The public sector employees…

Wait, how would this prevent health care workers with children from needing to be home? Who is going to be watching those kids while the parents are working at a hospital?

[deleted]

Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools

#119
post #14

Norway got more cases than denmark (622 vs 514), and our government is still asleep. The "wait and see" attitude makes shure they are always 3 steps behind.

At this point the number of cases is slightly less important than the rate. Denmark's numbers are increasing at a rate that's unprecedented amongst all current COVID-19 outbreaks (amongst the data that is available). The past 2 days the numbers in Denmark have tripled twice (and are on track to triple another time today). You could expect Denmarks numbers to overtake Norway's before the end of today or whenever the n…

Probably more Danes to skiing in northern Italy.

And who knows maybe the authorities have done a good job tracking down infected people -- implying that the number of unknown cases is small.

Re: Denmarks shuts down all schools, daycare facilities, universities, highschools

#120
post #111
post #2

Also, all public sector employees who do not perform critical functions will be sent home on paid leave, and all private companies are recommended to do the same. On top of this all public gatherings of more than 100 people is discouraged, and it is alsp encouraged for all bars and nightclubs to keep closed for now. These are expected to be signed into law within the week.

Are grocery shops considered critical?

They are not public sector and thus not directly affected.
Post reply on HN