111–120 of 346 posts
I have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.
simple back of the envelope calculation: in 3 years time, they will have 3 giga factories (+1 in upstate new york), each of which should be scale to 500k cars. at an average resale price of $50k (might be a little lower, but let's keep it simple), that's $75B in revenue. at a 10% profit margin, that's $7.5B profit. let's presume a 20x factor as a growth stock, you have an evaluation of $150B, which it's currently tre…
Year-over-year revenue flat, year-over-year GAAP income down 25% on 20k more units delivered. Hard to understand...
As a TSLA ahareholder I'm enjoying this ride but am honestly equally puzzled. The numbers are not good. On a related note: FB has been profitable for years, is growing earnings each year by more than 20% and just beat wall street expectations, which wall street rewards with -6% on after-markets trading. Huh?!
After the big FB rally, the report was mostly underwhelming.
Entirely different expectations on the shoulders of FB vs Tesla at this juncture of their operational histories.
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> From the looks of things, Tesla has crossed into prolonged profitability How? They lost $800 million in 2019. > Additionally, because Tesla can self fund and doesn't have to rely on the markets to raise money, they don't have to care very much about short sellers driving the price down. They still have increasing bills and huge liabilities. Acting like they have no risks if they don't raise money is crazy.
> They lost $800 million in 2019. You're not wrong. Of course the counterpoint is that they were profitable both the 3rd and 4th quarter. > They still have increasing bills and huge liabilities. That is true. However, some of their debt will convert into equity as long as the stock price remains where it is. More broadly, I'm not trying to convince anyone that Tesla is some sort of value stock. It's not. It's absurdl…
Less so than last year. Why do we believe this is sustainable over a full year?
> More broadly, I'm not trying to convince anyone that Tesla is some sort of value stock. It's not.
There seem to be people who do, and I want to insure that they don't lose their whole retirement savings chasing that.
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I dunno. My bullish view has more to do with Tesla using the vehicle market as an entry point to the broader energy market. If the Tesla cars start throwing off profit and make the company self-sustaining, their vertically-integrated energy thing opens the kind of insanely huge global energy market. They're not just going to eat Ford's lunch - but also Chevron, Saudi Aramco and your local energy company.
I'm curious how you see Tesla as "vertically integrated energy" company. You mean Tesla is going to run power plants and transmission lines? Both are highly regulated, including the price you can charge, with a very low profit margin in most cases, not sure Musk would be a fan.
But they are happy to sell solar and storage to utilities, to the extent that power grids still provide useful services. (And I definitely believe they do...) See: https://www.tesla.com/utilities
I also think that consumer 'behind the meter' solar generation and battery (or other) storage tech will also capture a lot of value that goes to utilities right now.
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Ford was making a profit when the Model T existed. Tesla isn't.
False. Tesla earned a net and operating profit this quarter and last and looks set to continue the trend toward consistent profitability as they roll out their more profitable position in China. They've reached a sales scale where their operating income is annualizing to well over a billion dollars per year. Operating income was $359 million this quarter, and $620 million combined for the two most recent quarters. Fr…
Tesla lost $800 million this year. That should be the focus.
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I dunno. My bullish view has more to do with Tesla using the vehicle market as an entry point to the broader energy market. If the Tesla cars start throwing off profit and make the company self-sustaining, their vertically-integrated energy thing opens the kind of insanely huge global energy market. They're not just going to eat Ford's lunch - but also Chevron, Saudi Aramco and your local energy company.
I'm curious how you see Tesla as "vertically integrated energy" company. You mean Tesla is going to run power plants and transmission lines? Both are highly regulated, including the price you can charge, with a very low profit margin in most cases, not sure Musk would be a fan.
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There are also several people I know who have done so at a craps table. That doesn't make it a sustainable or recommendable activity.
I call BS. There's no casino game outside of a slot machine that someone could play that could turn a few hundred dollars into $1M in a gambling session. This difference you're missing is the upside is asymmetric with options. Your losses are capped but your gains are essentially unlimited. In a typical casino game the house edge is >50%. If you're turning $500 into $1M at a blackjack or craps table you're cheating.
I have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.
Stocks sometimes aren't rational. It's just speculation/hype.